Socioeconomic Forecast Why do the forecast Serves as input data for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Presented to the LRTP Subcommittee Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist, HRPDC April 5, 2017 HAMPTON ROADS Socioeconomic Forecast Why do the forecast Serves as input data for the HRTPO 2045 Long- Range Transportation Plan Provides an
Presented to the LRTP Subcommittee Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist, HRPDC April 5, 2017
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– Retail – Industrial – Office – Other
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2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Methodology 4
Employment & Population Regional Totals Jurisdiction Allocations Households & Vehicle Registrations
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500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045
Population Forecast through 2045
Peninsula Southside
Forecast
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200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045
Employment Forecast through 2045
Peninsula Southside
Forecast
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Industry Sector
2-Digit NAICS*
Retail Office Industrial Other
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 11
100%
Mining 21
100%
Construction 23
10% 90%
Manufacturing 31,32,33
10% 80% 10%
Transportation 48
10% 80% 10%
Communications, Utilities 22
10% 10% 70% 10%
Wholesale Trade 42
40% 10% 20% 30%
Retail Trade 44,45
90% 10%
Warehousing 49
10% 20% 20% 50%
Information 51
60% 10% 30%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 52,53,55
100%
Administration & Support 56
30% 30% 10% 30%
Personal Services 72,81
40% 30% 10% 20%
Entertainment, Recreation 71
30% 10% 60%
Health Services 62
30% 30% 10% 30%
Educational Services 61
20% 80%
Other Professional and Related Services 54
90% 10%
Public Administration 92
10% 40% 20% 30%
* North American Industrial Classification System
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Greg Grootendorst Hampton Roads Planning District Commission ggrootendorst@hrpdcva.gov 757.420.8300
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Regional Economic Models, Inc REMI is one of the most advanced and sophisticated dynamic forecasting and policy analysis tools available on the market, widely recognized for quality, accuracy and integrity. The model contains 169 unique industry sectors and over 700 policy variables to enable simulations that simultaneously forecast thousands of variables.
The Commission’s REMI model was purchased in 2001 and is updated on an annual basis. National, state and local data are collected from a variety
for the Hampton Roads Region.
2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Methodology
Major Data Sources Include: Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics Census Department of Defense Energy Information Administration Center for Disease Control County Business Patterns Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics
State and Local Government Spending Investment
(1) Output
Output Exports Consumption Real Disposable Income
(4) Wages, Prices, and Production Costs
Employment Opportunity Housing Price Wage Rate Composite Wage Rate Production Costs Composite Prices Real Wage Rate Consumer Price Deflator
(3) Demographic (2) Labor & Capital Demand
Optimal Capital Stock Employment Labor/Output Ratio
(5) Market Shares
Domestic Market Share International Market Share Population Participation Rate Migration Labor Force
2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Methodology
– Woods & Poole – Weldon Cooper Center
2045 Socioeconomic Forecast Methodology