Societal Risks and the Law Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

societal risks and the law
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Societal Risks and the Law Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Societal Risks and the Law Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, David Wagner, Jasjeet Sekhon, Cathryn Carson, Nicholas Jewell, Stephen Mahin Tuesday, January 22, 13 Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane


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Societal Risks and the Law

Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, David Wagner, Jasjeet Sekhon, Cathryn Carson, Nicholas Jewell, Stephen Mahin

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 2

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 3

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 4

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane 3 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 6

Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 7

Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip 6 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 8

Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride 2 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane 7 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane about the same!

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Why am I asking these questions?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Why is it hard to estimate risks?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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This class: Societal Risks and the Law

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Philip Stark David Wagner Jas Sekhon Cathryn Carson Nicolas Jewell Stephen Mahin

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Wally Abrazaldo Wayne Lee Your fearless GSIs

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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  • Homeworks (due Mondays), midterm

(March 14), reading quizzes (due Tuesdays), group term project

  • Read the assigned readings before lecture
  • Break 45 minutes through. Remind me!
  • Questions? Piazza or office hours
  • See course webpage:

http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~daw/teaching/ c79-s13/

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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This is an experimental course; please bear with us.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Please ask questions!

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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  • This course is about risk
  • How to measure risk
  • How people think about risk
  • How people, and society, live with risk
  • How many fields deal with risk

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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risk: the possibility of bad stuff happening

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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risk = probability × damage

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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risk = probability × damage chances of the bad thing happening

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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risk = probability × damage chances of the bad thing happening how much harm is done if bad thing happens

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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probability is hard

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Give up and go fishing?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Give up and go fishing?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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probability is part of the language of risk

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

  • bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

  • f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

  • bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

  • f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration. Which is more likely? (a) Linda is a bank teller. (b) Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 36

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

  • bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

  • f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration. Which is more likely? (a) Linda is a bank teller. (b) Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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Was Gandhi older or younger than 9 when he died?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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How old was Gandhi when he died?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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  • “Was Gandhi older or younger than 9

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 50

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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  • “Was Gandhi older or younger than 9

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 50

  • “Was Gandhi older or younger than 140

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 67

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 41

let’s make a deal

Tuesday, January 22, 13

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SLIDE 42

Tuesday, January 22, 13