Societal Risks and the Law Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Societal Risks and the Law Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, David Wagner, Jasjeet Sekhon, Cathryn Carson, Nicholas Jewell, Stephen Mahin Tuesday, January 22, 13 Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane

SLIDE 1

Societal Risks and the Law

Stats/CS/PoliSci C79 Philip Stark, David Wagner, Jasjeet Sekhon, Cathryn Carson, Nicholas Jewell, Stephen Mahin

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 2

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 3

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 4

Which is riskier? (a) a 1000-mile car trip (b) flying 1000 miles by jet plane 3 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 5

Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 6

Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 7

Which is riskier? (a) living one year in a brick building (b) a one-day ski trip 6 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 8

Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 9

Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 10

Which is riskier? (a) a scuba dive (b) a one-hour canoe ride 2 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 11

Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 12

Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 13

Which is riskier? (a) living near a nuclear plant for 5 years (b) a parachute jump out of a plane 7 times riskier

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 14

Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 15

Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 16

Which is riskier? (a) flying in a 2-engine jet plane (b) flying in a 4-engine jet plane about the same!

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 17

Why am I asking these questions?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 18

Why is it hard to estimate risks?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 19

This class: Societal Risks and the Law

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 20

Philip Stark David Wagner Jas Sekhon Cathryn Carson Nicolas Jewell Stephen Mahin

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 21

Wally Abrazaldo Wayne Lee Your fearless GSIs

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 22

Homeworks (due Mondays), midterm

(March 14), reading quizzes (due Tuesdays), group term project

Read the assigned readings before lecture
Break 45 minutes through. Remind me!
Questions? Piazza or office hours
See course webpage:

http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~daw/teaching/ c79-s13/

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 23

This is an experimental course; please bear with us.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 24

Please ask questions!

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 25

This course is about risk
How to measure risk
How people think about risk
How people, and society, live with risk
How many fields deal with risk

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 26

risk: the possibility of bad stuff happening

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 27

risk = probability × damage

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 28

risk = probability × damage chances of the bad thing happening

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 29

risk = probability × damage chances of the bad thing happening how much harm is done if bad thing happens

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 30

probability is hard

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 31

Give up and go fishing?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 32

Give up and go fishing?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 33

probability is part of the language of risk

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 34

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 35

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration. Which is more likely? (a) Linda is a bank teller. (b) Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 36

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very

bright. She majored in philosophy. As a

student, she was deeply concerned with issues

f discrimination and social justice, and she also

participated in an anti-nuclear demonstration. Which is more likely? (a) Linda is a bank teller. (b) Linda is a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement.

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 37

Was Gandhi older or younger than 9 when he died?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 38

How old was Gandhi when he died?

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 39

“Was Gandhi older or younger than 9

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 50

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 40

“Was Gandhi older or younger than 9

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 50

“Was Gandhi older or younger than 140

when he died?” “How old was Gandhi when he died?” ⇒ average answer: 67

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 41

let’s make a deal

Tuesday, January 22, 13

SLIDE 42

Tuesday, January 22, 13