So Sout uth h As Asia ia Managing Spatial Transformation for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Le Lever eraging ging Urb Urban aniz ization tion in in So Sout uth h As Asia ia

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Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability

Sohaib Athar Urban Specialist, Pakistan Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice

Urbanization in Pakistan

• Pakistan is the most urbanized

large country in South Asia

• Urban centers account for over

half of Pakistan’s GDP

• Urbanization provides an
• pportunity to transform

economies and enhance both prosperity and livability

• Vision 2025 of the Govt. of

Pakistan places a premium on job growth in cities

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% of Total Population Urban

Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)

Urbanization City size and spatial structure Agglomeration economies Productivity, skills, jobs & innovation Congestion forces Pressures on infrastructure & markets Outcomes Prosperity Livability Governance & Finance Land & Housing Disaster Resilience Connectivity & Planning

Framework for Harnessing Urbanization

• Officially, roughly 40 percent of Pakistanis live in urban settlements
• Agglomeration Index shows urban share at 56 percent (2010 results)

Considerable hidden urbanization

Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010) and UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011)

10 20 30 40 50 60 Pakistan India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal

% of Total Population Urban

Agglomeration Index United Nations

BGD BTN IND LKA NPL PAK

6 8 10 12 ln GDP per capita 20 40 60

AFG

80 100 Agglomeration index South Asia Other

Pakistan is not leveraging agglomeration properly for prosperity

Source: World Bank staff based on Agglomeration Index (2010), and World Bank World Development Indicators data

PAK

South Asian cities can improve livability

City Ranking New Delhi Mumbai Kathmandu Colombo Karachi Dhaka 110 115 125 127 135 139 Developing country averages South Asia All developing exc. South Asia East Asia and Pacific 125 103 93

Source: EIU (2015), Data reused with permission of the Economist Intelligence Unit

Urban Poverty Rates

Sindh and Punjab lead in urbanization and cities’ share of GDP

Source: Based on Census 1998, UN World Urbanization Prospects (2011) and estimations from Labor Force Survey data

% share of national GDP GDP per capita, $ (2005, nominal) Urban Rural Urban Rural Punjab 35% 25.2% 744 715 Sindh 18% 10.5% 781 644 KP 1.5% 6.5% 394 471 Total 55.2% 44.8% 731 638

Source: Estimates based on World Development Indicators 2012, Census of Manufacturing Industries 2005-06 and Labor Force Survey 2009-2011 data

Pakistan’s urban corridor intensifying around key cities

Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data

sss

Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data

Change in Light Intensity between 1999 and 2010 Annual GDP Growth Rate Estimates 1999 to 2010

• The Lahore agglomeration meets

Delhi’s equivalent, forming one continuously lit belt of 67 cities with an estimated population of 73.4 million

• This is slightly less than the

population of Turkey

 Agglomeration formed despite lack

• f regional integration

Crossing borders through urbanization

Multi-city agglomerations in Pakistan

• The formation of new

agglomerations was actually

• utpaced by merging of

existing agglomerations between 1999-2010

• The Lahore agglomeration

has expanded to absorb those of Chiniot, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Lalamusa and Sialkot.

Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), the Earth Institute at Columbia University

Urban Expansion in and around Lahore, 1999 to 2010

• Yellow and green areas: urban footprints in 1999
• Pink areas: urban footprint in 2010

Lahore’s most rapid growth is on the periphery

 Often these agglomerations and

urban expansions have detrimental effects on the urban cores

 Dimming cores, bright peripheries

indicate a move of population or industry, particularly manufacturing, to a city’s edges

 Pakistan’s cities are growing outward

and not upward, increasing the challenges for planning, transportation and providing public services

Changes in Light Intensity (1999 to 2010) in Punjab’s major clusters and Sindh province

Source: Based on analysis of DMSP night lights data

• Not only slums, but also sprawl
• Urban footprint (size of the built-up

area) in South Asia growing at 2x rate of urban population growth

• In Punjab’s large cities, urban land

area expanded by 9.6% per annum

• n average from 1999 to 2010
• Medium sized cities 4.3% per

annum

• Multan, Bahawalpur, Khanpur and

Rahim Yar Khan more than 10% per annum

• These belts present an opportunity,

but will require better coordination between different urban local governments

Urbanization has been messy

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS night lights data

Connectivity and market access drive growth

• f spatial clusters
• Inter-city transportation links are

very good

• Growth is concentrated along

several clusters

• Faisalabad-Lahore-Sialkot triangle
• Islamabad-Rawalpindi corridor
• Karachi-Hyderabad corridor
• Growth is driven by access to

markets, which is produced by proximity and access to transport infrastructure

High-tech manufacturing is concentrated in several clusters

Number of Workers

• Most of Pakistan’s high-tech

jobs are concentrated in a handful of cities:

• Karachi in Sindh, and Lahore,

Sialkot, Gujranwala, and Rawalpindi and Punjab

• 5 cities represent nearly 43%
• f the nation’s total

employment in high-tech jobs

• Nearly 25% of employment

in high tech jobs are found in what are defined as non- urban areas in Punjab

• Possible that these are

located in urban peripheries or near major highways

Source: Estimates from CMI data.

Some cities have high manufacturing jobs

Source: World Bank staff based on Labour Force Surveys 2008-2011

40 36 32 30 29 25 18 17 6 32 31 31 31 32 35 30 36 15 8 7 13 8 13 10 16 15 42 5 5 4 9 7 6 9 9 4 5 6 9 6 8 9 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 7 12 8 19 1 6 1 8 3 9 4 3 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sialkot Faisalabad Karachi Gujranwala Lahore Multan Peshawar Rawalpindi Islamabad % of city employment

Employment Shares in major cities, by sectors

Manufacturing Trading Public Admin Construction Transport Health & Education Agriculture Finance

Slum shares exceed high poverty rates

Slums and informal settlements occupied not by only the urban poor, but also middle income households

Cities face large scale housing needs

Country Urban population 2010 (000) Percent of population living in slums Urban slum population 2010 (000) Lower-bound est. housing backlog 2010 (000) Afghanistan 7,300 88.6 6,468 898 Bangladesh 41,476 61.6 25,549 5,807 Bhutan 253

• India

378,775 17.4 65,907 18,307 Maldives 126

• Nepal

4,990 58.1 2,899 483 Pakistan 62,290 46.6 29,027 4,398 Sri Lanka 3,188 12.0 383 101

Sources: UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2011 Revision; UNESCAP 2012, 126; UN-HABITAT 2013, 126–28; and Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner 2013. Note: – = not available. Data on proportion of urban population living in slums are for the most recently available years, as follows: 2011 (India); 2009 (Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan); 2005 (Afghanistan and Sri Lanka).

Urbanization City size and spatial structure Agglomeration economies Productivity, skills, jobs & innovation Congestion forces Pressures on infrastructure & markets Outcomes Prosperity Livability Governance & Finance Land & Housing Disaster Resilience Connectivity & Planning

Recap: Framework for Harnessing Urbanization

Empowerment deficit

Limited, overlapping & fragmented functional assignments with inappropriate/excessive central/state/provincial control Financial basis extremely weak: limited revenue powers and inappropriately conceived/targeted intergovernmental transfers Despite elections & RTI, accountability mechanisms are weak and underutilized

Resource deficit Accountability deficit

Removing 3 Deficits in Urban governance and Finance

I N S I G H T S I N T O K A R A C H I ’ S U R B A N E C O N O M Y A N D L A N D S C A P E

Karachi: the megacity of Pakistan

Karachi is vital to Pakistan’s economy

COMPOSITION OF EMPLOYMENT IN KARACHI

 Karachi makes a vital contribution to

Pakistan’s economy:

 About 15% of national GDP  Almost 5.5% of domestic employment  GDP per capita 44% higher than

nationally

 City remains Pakistan’s

manufacturing powerhouse

 Strong GDP growth and employment

generation

 But weak productivity growth

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of Labor Force Survey data for 2008-2011,

2.8 32.3 31.1 12.9 8.9 7.6 3.8 0.6 Finance & real estate Manufacuring Trading Public admin Transport & comms Health & education Construction Agriculture

Karachi’s economy is underperforming given its potential

Karachi Lahore Hyderabad, Pakistan Jakarta Mumbai Shanghai Ho Chi Minh City Bangkok Cairo Seoul Singapore Doha Dubai

• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Real GDP growth 2006-2012 GDP per capita 2006 ($) 750 world cities Karachi Direct comparators Aspirational comparators Best practice examples Source:Oxford Economics Competitive Cities Database Average of the largest 750 cities in the world

Karachi: slow economic growth in city core and more rapid economic growth on periphery

Source: World Bank staff based on analysis of DMSP-OLS radiance-calibrated nighttime lights data

Pattern of night time lights growth between 1999 - 2010

1998

Karachi’s population has expanded rapidly as the city has acted as a magnet for migrants

Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey

2010

Karachi: Job opportunities are mainly clustered downtown

Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey

Density of Jobs in Karachi (2010), by Union Council

Karachi: Skilled workers live close to jobs but unskilled live further away

Source: World Bank Analysis based on 1998 Population Census and JICA 2010-2011 Karachi Household Survey

Distribution of Skilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council Distribution of Unskilled Workers by Residence (2010), by Union Council

Karachi Land Use 2001

2013: Periphery Expansion

Expansion on periphery “construction” remains

Karachi City expansion characterized by development at the periphery

Land “under construction” in 2001 Land “under construction” in 2013

Source: World Bank staff analysis based on data from Government of Sindh Urban Policy Directorate & European Space Agency

Land within city core Periphery growth with road grid Ad-hoc periphery growth “Leapfrog” outside city

Private 3.9% Recent Allocations 2.7%

Highly fragmented control of land in Karachi – many agencies

Distribution of Land Ownership / Control in Karachi Division (% of 3,600 sqkm)

Federal 12.3% Province 48.5% Local 32.7% Others 6.6%

DHA 5% KirtharNational Park 21% Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) 30.9%

• Govt. of Sindh

17.7% LDA 5.6% MD A 3.9 % Cooperati ve Housing Societies 1.8% KPT 2.8% Cantt. Boards 2.1%

GoP 0.5%

Port Qasim 1.5% Railways 0.4% SITE 0.6%

» Generally fragmented throughout city » Large and small parcels » Large tracks mostly within city core » Large tracks inland and at periphery

Source: Karachi Strategic Development Plan 2020, City District Govt. Karachi

Moving towards prosperous and livable cities

• Pakistan’s policymakers

must focus on alleviating both current and future congestion pressures

• Strengthen urban

governance and finance

• Manage urban sprawl

and expansion

• Focus on city core

rejuvenation

Thank you

For more on this study, refer to the full report: Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability Available at www.worldbank.org/southasiacities