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Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Elmar Kiesling, Andreas Ekelhart, Bernhard Grill, Christine Strau, Christian Stummer December 9, 2013; Washington, DC Funded by the Austrian


  1. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Elmar Kiesling, Andreas Ekelhart, Bernhard Grill, Christine Strauß, Christian Stummer December 9, 2013; Washington, DC Funded by the Austrian Science Fund under project number P 23122-N23

  2. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Agenda Introduction Introduction Framework Knowledge base Framework Attack patterns Simulation Knowledge base Optimization Attack patterns Decision support Example Simulation Experimental setup Optimization Results Conclusions Decision support Appendix Example Experimental setup Results Conclusions Appendix 46

  3. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Major security management challenges Introduction 3 Framework ◮ Growing complexity of information systems Knowledge base Attack patterns ◮ Malicious threats and targeted attacks Simulation Optimization ◮ Increasingly sophisticated attacks that exploit Decision support ◮ software vulnerabilities Example Experimental setup ◮ network vulnerabilities Results ◮ social vulnerabilities Conclusions ◮ insider knowledge and access Appendix ◮ etc. ◮ Heterogeneous adversaries hacktivists, script kiddies, insiders, advanced persistent threats . . . → Best way to cope with such risks? 46

  4. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Core ideas Introduction 4 Security is. . . Framework Knowledge base ◮ not the result of any particular technical measure Attack patterns Simulation ◮ a system property that emerges from interactions Optimization Decision support ◮ not an absolute concept, but involves tradeoffs Example Experimental setup ◮ meaningless without a specific threat model Results Conclusions Appendix “Best” solution is highly context-dependent, e.g., ◮ system characteristics ◮ threat landscape ◮ available resources ◮ decision-makers’ risk preferences 46

  5. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Problem definition Introduction 5 Framework Objective: choose an “optimal” set of security controls Knowledge base Attack patterns Simulation Approach: Optimization Decision support 1. Model Example Experimental setup a) abstract causal interdependencies Results b) the information system and its context Conclusions c) adversaries and their behavior Appendix 2. Apply sets of security controls and simulate attacks 3. Optimize control sets w.r.t. multiple objectives 4. Support decision-maker in the selection of a control set 46

  6. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Overview Introduction Framework 6 Knowledge base Attack Scenario Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Attacker Attacker Decision support model objectives Example Experimental setup Knowledge base Results Conclusions Appendix Successful attacks Implementation cost Implementation time Detected attacks Successful attack actions Running cost Attack and Control Attack Pattern Abstract Attack Model Linking Attack Graph Simulation Engine System Model 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 Metaheuristic optimization 46

  7. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Knowledge base Introduction Framework 7 Knowledge base Attack Scenario Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Attacker Attacker Decision support model objectives Example Experimental setup Knowledge base Results Conclusions Appendix Successful attacks Implementation cost Implementation time Detected attacks Successful attack actions Running cost Attack and Control Attack Pattern Abstract Attack Model Linking Attack Graph Simulation Engine System Model 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 Metaheuristic optimization 46

  8. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Knowledge base Introduction Framework 8 Knowledge base Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results Conclusions Appendix ◮ Captures abstract attack knowledge ◮ Actions linked through pre- and post-conditions to form graph 46

  9. Atomic attack actions Condition properties Pre-Conditions Post-Conditions

  10. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack patterns Introduction Framework Knowledge base 10 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Knowledge base Results Conclusions Appendix Attack and Control Attack Pattern Model Linking System Model 46

  11. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack pattern linking Introduction Framework Knowledge base 11 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results Conclusions Appendix 46

  12. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack pattern linking Introduction Framework Knowledge base 11 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results + Conclusions Appendix 46

  13. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack pattern linking Introduction Framework Knowledge base 11 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results + Conclusions Appendix 46

  14. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack pattern linking Introduction Framework Knowledge base 11 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results Conclusions Appendix 46

  15. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach Attack pattern linking Introduction Framework Knowledge base 11 Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Example Experimental setup Results Conclusions Appendix 46

  16. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach CAPEC [?] Introduction ◮ Publicly available list of common attack patterns Framework ◮ 413 patterns described in varying levels of detail Knowledge base 12 ◮ Not fully formalized (textual descriptions) Attack patterns Simulation Optimization Decision support Transformation: Example Experimental setup 1. Generic CAPEC pattern → more specific actions Results e.g., “134 Email Injection” → emailKeylogger , emailBackdoor Conclusions 2. Single CAPEC pattern → sequential atomic actions Appendix e.g., “49 Brute Forcing" → bruteForce , accessHost , accessData 3. Add additional actions e.g., accessData, accessHost 4. Formalize ◮ preconditions ◮ postconditions ◮ impact 46

  17. Simulation-based optimization of information security controls: An adversary-centric approach CAPEC example: Brute Force (1) Introduction Brute Force Attack Pattern ID: 112 ( Standard Attack Pattern Completeness: Typical Severity: High Status: Draft Framework Complete ) Description Knowledge base Summary 13 Attack patterns In this attack, some asset (information, functionality, identity, etc.) is protected by a finite secret value. The attacker attempts to gain access to this asset by using trial-and-error to exhaustively explore all the possible secret values in the hope of finding the secret (or a value that is functionally equivalent) that Simulation will unlock the asset. Examples of secrets can include, but are not limited to, passwords, encryption keys, database lookup keys, and initial values to one-way functions. Optimization The key factor in this attack is the attacker's ability to explore the possible secret space rapidly. This, in turn, is a function of the size of the secret space and Decision support the computational power the attacker is able to bring to bear on the problem. If the attacker has modest resources and the secret space is large, the challenge facing the attacker is intractable. While the defender cannot control the resources available to an attacker, they can control the size of the secret space. Creating a large secret space involves selecting one's secret from as large a field of equally likely alternative secrets as possible and ensuring that an Example attacker is unable to reduce the size of this field using available clues or cryptoanalysis. Doing this is more difficult than it sounds since elimination of patterns (which, in turn, would provide an attacker clues that would help them reduce the space of potential secrets) is difficult to do using deterministic Experimental setup machines, such as computers. Assuming a finite secret space, a brute force attack will eventually succeed. The defender must rely on making sure that the Results time and resources necessary to do so will exceed the value of the information. For example, a secret space that will likely take hundreds of years to explore is likely safe from raw-brute force attacks. Attack Execution Flow Conclusions Appendix 46

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