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Simon Ward Ursa Shipbrokers Ship Sale and Purchase: The Real - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Simon Ward Ursa Shipbrokers Ship Sale and Purchase: The Real - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Simon Ward Ursa Shipbrokers Ship Sale and Purchase: The Real Futures Market Supply and Demand The cobweb Model Paul A Samuelson The Wisdom of Crowds FEAR PAIN PLEASURE Jean-Paul Rodrigue Howard Marks Seeds for a Boom: - A benign
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Supply and Demand
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The cobweb Model
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Paul A Samuelson
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The Wisdom of Crowds
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FEAR
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PAIN
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PLEASURE
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Jean-Paul Rodrigue
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Howard Marks
“Seeds for a Boom”:
- A benign environment
- A grain of truth
- Early success
- More money than ideas
- Willing suspension of disbelief
- Rejection of valuation norms
- The pursuit of the new
- The virtuous cycle
- Fear of missing out
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John Boyd
“If it works, it is obsolete. Yesterday’s rules won’t work today.”
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S&P market is the real futures market , combining:
- Health of the freight market, and future prospects
- Ship specification, age, etc
- Where and when the ship is being delivered
- Supply and demand of ships, both totally, and within the S&P market
at the time
- Availability of finance
- Availability of cash
- Economic risks/prospects
- Political risks/prospects
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PREDIC ICTIONS:
Dry: HOLD Wet: BUY Gas: BUY Containers: SELL large, BUY (selectively) SMALL
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Low Sulphur
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“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” Søren Kierkegaard
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