BUN BUNKER KER LEVY SC LEVY SCHEMES A EMES AND TH D THEIR EIR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BUN BUNKER KER LEVY SC LEVY SCHEMES A EMES AND TH D THEIR EIR IMPACT ON IMPA T ON TH THE C E COMPETITIVEN OMPETITIVENESS OF ESS OF SHORT SEA SHIPPING SHORT SEA SHIPPING VASILEIOS KOSM VASILEIOS KOSMAS AS (BSc Economics, MSc

SLIDE 1

NEWCASTLE, 11/11/2016

BUN BUNKER KER LEVY SC LEVY SCHEMES A EMES AND TH D THEIR EIR IMPA IMPACT ON T ON TH THE C E COMPETITIVEN OMPETITIVENESS OF ESS OF SHORT SHORT SEA SHIPPING SEA SHIPPING

VASILEIOS VASILEIOS KOSM KOSMAS AS (BSc Economics, MSc Marine Transport with Management, Ph.D. Candidate) Prof rof.D .Dr. MIC . MICHELE ELE ACCIARO ACCIARO

KÜHNE LOGISTICS UNIVERSITY HAMBURG, GERMANY VASILEIOS.KOSMAS@THE-KLU.ORG

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RESEARCH BASED ON… 2 papers: 1) Presented at SCC2015 entitled “Bunker levy schemes for GHG emission reduction in international shipping” 2) New work

SLIDE 3

NECESSIT NECESSITY Y FOR FOR FUR FURTHER HER EM EMISSION ISSION MIT ITIGAT IGATION ION ACT ACTIONS IONS

Inadequacy of existing measures 
Emission Control Areas (ECAs)
Energy Environmental Design Index (EEDI)
Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP)
Market Based Measures: the new solution? 
(Maritime) Emission Trading Scheme 
Bunker Levy Scheme

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AIM OF THE E RES ESEA EARCH PAPER ER

Effect of this regulatory regime on the competitiveness of SSS

against road transportation (modal shift).

a unit tax per ton of fuel
an ad valorem tax; as percentage of fuel prices

SSS: high competitive environment ECAs= operational cost increase Bunker levy schemes = modal shift ?

SLIDE 5

METHODOLOGY 

Equilibrium in shipping; interaction among the four markets
Application of the cobweb theorem to the shipping industry
Binary Choice Model

Source: Ezekiel (1938)

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  ASSUMPTIONS

New order for ships at period t according to Luo et al.(2009) Nt=

t= n

n × Πt n= average proportion of profit accounting for new vessel purchase Π= Profit , Πt= = PtWt –F –Ft Ψt P=freight rates ($/TEU), W= TEUs carried, F=fuel costs Ft= ρt ft λtSt

ρ=operating time at sea (hours), f=fuel price ($/ton), λ=coefficient of ship´s energy efficiency, S= (knots) is average speed. Ψ= no of ships required, d= route distance (nautical miles) and H is ship’s average capacity (TEU)

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  Based on the cobweb theorem    For the unit tax scheme:          For the ad valorem scheme:            

Based on the cobweb theorem For the unit tax scheme For the ad valorem scheme ΔW=change in cargo transported, ΔZ=change in fleet capacity, δ>0=freight adjustment factor on the basis of demand and supply alterations, φ>0 (constant)=average fleet capacity utilization rate. 

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A DYNAMIC ECONOMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL

xj1

dem deman and d xj2 speed xj3 freight rates For th the unit t ta tax scenario For th the ad valorem scenario

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Bunker levy schemes= decrease of SSS´s utility Sc Scena nario fo for ana nalysi sis s

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AD VALOREM SCHEME

Tax percentage (%) Modal shift percentage (%) Low fuel prices (300$/t) High fuel prices (600$/t) 2 0.3 0.6 5 0.7 1.4 10 1.4 2.9 15 2.2 4.3 20 2.9 5.7 30 4.3 8.6 40 5.7 11.4

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UNIT TAX SCHEME

Tax amount ($/t) Modal shift Low fuel prices (300$/t) High fuel prices (600$/t) 5 0.2 0.2 10 0.5 0.5 20 0.95 0.95 40 1.9 1.9 50 2.4 2.4 80 3.8 3.8 100 4.8 4.8 120 5.7 5.7 150 7.2 7.2 200 9.6 9.6 250 11.9 11.9

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CONCLUSION

First attempt to model modal shift from SSS to road in case of bunker levy scheme enforcement Ad valorem SSS´s Utility decrease Unit tax scheme Modal shift Policy implications: Unit tax prevents uncertainty Future steps of this research: Sensitivity analysis of variables, Effect on Social Welfare after modal shift occurrence.

SLIDE 13

BUN BUNKER KER LEVY SC LEVY SCHEMES A EMES AND TH D THEIR EIR IMPA IMPACT ON T ON TH THE C E COMPETITIVEN OMPETITIVENESS OF ESS OF SHORT SHORT SEA SHIPPING SEA SHIPPING

VASILEIOS VASILEIOS KOSM KOSMAS AS (BSc Economics, MSc Marine Transport with Management, Ph.D. Candidate) Prof rof.D .Dr. MIC . MICHELE ELE ACCIARO ACCIARO

KÜHNE LOGISTICS UNIVERSITY HAMBURG, GERMANY VASILEIOS.KOSMAS@THE-KLU.ORG

RESEARCH BASED ON… 2 papers: 1) Presented at SCC2015 entitled “Bunker levy schemes for GHG emission reduction in international shipping” 2) New work

NECESSIT NECESSITY Y FOR FOR FUR FURTHER HER EM EMISSION ISSION MIT ITIGAT IGATION ION ACT ACTIONS IONS

AIM OF THE E RES ESEA EARCH PAPER ER

against road transportation (modal shift).

SSS: high competitive environment ECAs= operational cost increase Bunker levy schemes = modal shift ?

METHODOLOGY

ASSUMPTIONS

New order for ships at period t according to Luo et al.(2009) Nt=

n × Πt n= average proportion of profit accounting for new vessel purchase Π= Profit , Πt= = PtWt –F –Ft Ψt P=freight rates ($/TEU), W= TEUs carried, F=fuel costs Ft= ρt ft λtSt

ρ=operating time at sea (hours), f=fuel price ($/ton), λ=coefficient of ship´s energy efficiency, S= (knots) is average speed. Ψ= no of ships required, d= route distance (nautical miles) and H is ship’s average capacity (TEU)

Based on the cobweb theorem For the unit tax scheme: For the ad valorem scheme:

Based on the cobweb theorem For the unit tax scheme For the ad valorem scheme ΔW=change in cargo transported, ΔZ=change in fleet capacity, δ>0=freight adjustment factor on the basis of demand and supply alterations, φ>0 (constant)=average fleet capacity utilization rate.

A DYNAMIC ECONOMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL

Bunker levy schemes= decrease of SSS´s utility Sc Scena nario fo for ana nalysi sis s

AD VALOREM SCHEME

UNIT TAX SCHEME

CONCLUSION

Thank you Questions?

METHODOLOGY 

  ASSUMPTIONS

  Based on the cobweb theorem    For the unit tax scheme:          For the ad valorem scheme:            

Based on the cobweb theorem For the unit tax scheme For the ad valorem scheme ΔW=change in cargo transported, ΔZ=change in fleet capacity, δ>0=freight adjustment factor on the basis of demand and supply alterations, φ>0 (constant)=average fleet capacity utilization rate. 