[PPT] - Shale gas and CBM in Europe Shale-shocked Europe and shale gas The PowerPoint Presentation

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Shale gas and CBM in Europe

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Shale-shocked

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Europe and shale gas

The Economist, Feb 2nd 2013

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Renewable capacity additions

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 '10 '20 '30 '40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 '10 '20 '30 '40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 '10 '20 '30 '40

Solar Geothermal Biomass/Other Wind Hydro

Renewables Gain Share

United States

Percent of TWh

Europe

Percent of TWh

Asia Pacific

Percent of TWh *Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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The Solar Wild Card

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Nuclear part of the mix

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Spot natural gas prices across global markets

Global spot natural gas, crude oil, and LNG prices
U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit
Source: Derived from Bloomberg, L.P.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 U.S. - Henry Hub Japan - LNG France - PEG Canada - AECO Germany - BEB Hub Netherlands - TTF Belgium - Zeebrugge Brent crude oil UK - NBP

Spot natural gas prices vary significantly acr global markets since 2008, with many marke far below oil-related benchmarks

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The Growing Importance of Atlantic Energy

From the end of the Cold War to the rise of

China and the BRICS: the “forgotten” Atlan

Shifting pattern of US oil import dependenc

Traditional: Middle East, Persian Gulf, Saudi Ara New rivals to Saudi Arabia and the Arab World (

top 10 national suppliers from the Atlantic Basin

Proliferation of suppliers large enough to negati

impact security of US oil supply

Increasing specific mass of the Atlantic Ba

in the broad global energy system – geopolitical implications: the return of a ne Atlantic?

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Geography of Top 10 Oil Sources

Atlantic Basin

Canada (1) Mexico (2) Nigeria (4) Venezuela (5) Colombia (8) Angola (9) Brazil (10)

Broader Middle East
Saudi Arabia (3)
Iraq (6)
Algeria (7)

Atlantic sources will grow in the future, while others could

slide. Ecuador is 11th, Congo

(Bzza) 14th, Cameroon 15th

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Key results from the 2013 Annual Energy Outlook

Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption growth Oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises sharply over th

next decade

Motor gasoline consumption declines, reflecting the introduction of

more stringent fuel economy standards, while diesel fuel consumption is moderated by increased natural gas use in heavy- duty vehicles

The United States. is a net exporter of coal and becomes a net

exporter of natural gas over the next decade -- for oil, the United States remains a net importer in the Reference case, but sharply reduces or eliminates import dependence by the mid-2030s in “high resource” sensitivity cases.

U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than

five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mi

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U.S. energy use: slow growth - improving energy efficiency and a slow and extended economic recovery

20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu

History Projections 2011 36% 20% 26% 8% 8% 1% 32% 28% 19% 11% 9% 2% Shares of total U.S. energy Nuclear Oil and other liquids Liquid biofuels Natural gas Coal Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 2000 23% 39% 24% 6% 8%

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US Crude Oil Estimates UP

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release

U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels

(1) The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources. (2) Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included. (3) Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category.

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year of Annual Energy Outlook

Unproved Alaska (1) Unproved L48 Offshore (2) Unproved Tight Oil (3) Unproved Tight Oil (reclassified from onshore) Unproved Other L48 Onshore Proved Reserves

23.8 48.6 41.6 16.5 67.0 25.2 222.6

Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crud resource estimate incr

ver the years, with tig

contributing recently

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Energy Supply

There are significant resources in the ground The world is not running out of energy any time soon A rise in unconventional sources of energy is expected Geographically more ‘level’ playing field Towards an Atlantic Energy Basin?

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TECHNOLOGY

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Energy Technologies: Examples

Primary Energy Sources: Primary Energy Sources: Primary Energy Sources: Primary Energy Sources:

Light Crude
Heavy Oil
Tar Sands
Wet gas
CBM
Tight gas
Nuclear
Coal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
Wave/Tidal

Extraction & Conversion Technologies: Extraction & Conversion Technologies: Extraction & Conversion Technologies: Extraction & Conversion Technologies:

Exploration
Deeper water
Arctic
LNG
Refining
Differentiated fuels
Advantaged chemicals
Gasification
Syngas conversion
Power generation
Photovoltaics
Bio-enzyimatics
H2 production & distribution
CO2 capture & storage

End Use Technologies: End Use Technologies: End Use Technologies: End Use Technologies:

ICEs
Adv. Batteries
Hybridisation
Fuel cells
Hydrogen storage
Gas turbines
Building efficiency
Urban infrastructure
Systems design
Other efficiency technologies
Appliances
Retail technologies

There are no “silver bullets” There are no “silver bullets” There are no “silver bullets” There are no “silver bullets”

But some have a larger calibre than others ! But some have a larger calibre than others ! But some have a larger calibre than others ! But some have a larger calibre than others !

We have about 30-40 years to deal with these problems so we have to find those technologies which will have the bigges

impact at the lowest cost

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Necessary Steps for the Technology

We need technically informed, coherent, and stable government

policies

educated decision makers and an educated public

For short/mid term technologies, we should avoid winners/losers

a level playing field for all applicable technologies emissions trading

For long term technologies, we need support for pre-competitive

research like fission, PV, biofuels, etc…

Business needs reasonable expectation of carbon price Universities/labs must recognize and act on importance of energy

research (technology and policy)

Need business to get involved in this research in the next several

decades since business like it or not is the way to get things done

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Summing up

Diversification is happening
Energy mix: Oil, coal and gas likely to remain the most important fuels over the next 20 years; their

market shares are likely to roughly equalize, at 25% to 30% each. This would be the first time in histor that the world has not been dominated by one single fuel

Geographical mix: for the first time, a more equitable global spread of energy sources
Incentives and regulations for low-carbon energy
EU key player
US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, part of the US Department of Energy, predicts that 80% o

US electricity could be renewable by 2050

China’s 12th Five Year plan calls for reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other air emissions and

increase in the share of non-fossil fuel primary energy consumption

Energy efficiency is starting happening
globally one-third of primary energy demand – roughly 160 quadrillion BTUs – is lost in energy

production, transformation, transmission and distribution: great strides being made NOT through socia engineering (self-sacrifice) but through technological innovation (in building, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors – urbanization offers great promise here.

Global energy intensity today is at a 100-year low and the differences across countries ar

the smallest since the beginning of the industrial revolution

Over the past 30 years, the world’s proved reserves of oil and natural gas increased 130%

(2.5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent)

Nurture positive black swans

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NATIONAL SECURITY AND ENERGY SECURITY A DUTCH EXAMPLE – FOR BETTER AND FOR WORSE

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Towards a balanced capability portfolio…

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From the trees…

…to the forest

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Planning for National Security – The Dutch Model (2007)

1. Government-wide analysis
A. Strategic

foresight

B. Horizon-

scanning

B. Thematic in-depth

foresight Report strategic foresight

Process Product Decision- making

Report Threat-picture Report themes and scenarios Cabinet decides on themes for thematic in-depth analyses

C. National

risk- assessment National Risk Picture

3. Follow

Legisla Risk prioritization Measu Polic Planning assumpti

ns

programme tasks and capabilities

2. Strategic planning

Required capabilies Current capabiliities Capabilities gap Capability- requirement Werk

Cabinet selects

priorities on basis of national risk picture Cabinet decides

n capabilities to

be strengthened through normal budget system

Foresight Risk assessment Capabilities planning

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Risk Profile

Government-Wide National Risk Assessment Methodology

Likelihood Impact

(multi-criteria analysis)

Scenarios

(Threats & Hazards)

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Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – Assessing likelihood

Hazards

Class Quantitative (%) Qualitative description of da

A < 0,05 Highly improbable B 0.05 – 0.5 Improbable C 0.5 – 5 Possible D 5 – 50 Probable E 50 – 100 Highly probable Dangers

Class Qualitative description of danger

A No concrete indication, and event is thought to be inconceivable B No concrete indication, but event is conceivable C No concrete indication, but event is conceivable D Event is thought to be quite probable E Concrete indication event will occur Dangers Hazards ikelihood

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Impact assessment

Scenario incident(s) Territorial security Human security Economic security Ecological security Political and social sta Total Impact Score of the scenario

Territory International position Fatalities Disruption to daily life Integrity of democracy Long-term disruption Casualties Suffering Costs

Weighted Aggregation

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Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – Assessing Impact

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Impact scores

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Government-Wide National Risk Assessment

13 threat scenarios Flu Pandemic / Mild Flu Pandemic / Serious Heatwave/drought Flooding EDO Flooding DR14 Country-wide blackout Intentional electricity

disruption

Oil geopolitical Animal activism Poltical salafism Left extremism Right extremism Muslim extremism

33 threat scenarios,

clustered in 6 ‘themes’ :

Climate change

(+flooding and flu));

Security of

energy supply;

Polarisation and

radicalization;

Disruption of ICT-

infrastructure;

Interweaving of under-

and upperworld;

Serious accidents (+

chemical and nuclear accident).

6 new ones/3

themes

Cyberconflict Disruption Internet

exchange

Food scarcity Mineral scarcity Rail accident Maritime accident

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2008 Risk Diagram

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Also used by private sector/security regions

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NRB 2012

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Grieppandemie mild Grieppandemie ernstig Hitte-droogte Zware sneeuwstorm IJzel Zeer zware storm Overstroming Westelijke kust (EDO) Overstroming Dijkring 14 Overstroming Rijn-IJssel Landelijke black-out elektriciteit Moedwillige verstoring elektriciteit Oliegeopolitiek Moedwillige verstoring gaslevering Moedwillige langdurige elektriciteitsuitval Moedwillige verstoring ICT vitale sector Verstoring IP-netwerk Rechts-extremisme Links-extremisme Dierenrechtenactivisme Politiek salafisme Moslimextremisme Onrust in probleemwijken Confrontaties allochtonen – extreem rechts Massapolarisatie Dierenrechtenextremisme Enclavevorming Politiek salafisme met geweld Beïnvloeding openbaar bestuur Beïnvloeding aandelenmarkt Criminele inmenging in vitaal bedrijfsleven Natuurbranden Chemisch incident Nucleair incident Cyberconflict Mineraal geopolitiek Spoorwegongeval Maritiemongeval Voedselschaarste (sojabonen) Uitval Internet Exchange

Nederlandse Nationale Risikobeoordeling

Waarschijnlijkheid Integriteit grondgebied Integriteit internationale positie Doden Gewonden en chronische zieken Gebrek primaire levensbehoeften Kosten Milieu en natuur Verstoring dagelijks leven Democratische rechtstaat Sociaalpsychologisch

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5 10 15 20 25 30

Landelijke black-out elektriciteit Moedwillige verstoring elektriciteit Oliegeopolitiek Moedwillige verstoring gaslevering Moedwillige langdurige elektriciteitsuitval

Energieveiligheid in de Nederlandse Nationale Risikobeoordeling

Waarschijnlijkheid Integriteit grondgebied Integriteit internationale positie Doden Gewonden en chronische zieken Gebrek primaire levensbehoeften Kosten Milieu en natuur Verstoring dagelijks leven Democratische rechtstaat Sociaalpsychologisch

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A personal assessment

Input Overall External Inputs Resistance Method Output Outcome Strategic foresight Risk Assessment Capability planning Overall

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Towards whole-of-government (slowly)

Whole-of- Government Whole-of- Government Stovepiped Internal security External security Whole-of- Society Integrated security approach Whole-of- Society

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But…

Not all scenarios Still too ‘pointy’ (no ‘futuribles’)yuqwwwjjq ‘Capability’ planning not fully done Still need for a whole-of-government analysis:

What do we know? What could it mean for US? What can we do about it (‘the ability to’)

Subsidiarity issues (EU)

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