September 28, 2017 Executive Briefing Survey Overview September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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September 28, 2017 Executive Briefing Survey Overview September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service Quarterly Hogs and Pigs September 28, 2017 Executive Briefing Survey Overview September Hogs and Pigs August 31 September 15 Data Collection Period Sample

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SLIDE 1

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs September 28, 2017

Executive Briefing United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service

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SLIDE 2

Survey Overview

September Hogs and Pigs

Data Collection Period August 31 – September 15 Sample Size 7,560 Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview Primary Data Items Total Inventory: by class, weight group, and quarter; Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 3

U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions

Survey Item Initial Estimate

(1,000 head)

Previous Revision

(1,000 head)

Current Revision

(1,000 head)

Net Revision

(1,000 head)

Current Estimate

(1,000 head)

September 1, 2016 All Hogs and Pigs 70,851 +1,035 +1.5%

  • 100
  • 0.1%

+935 +1.3% 71,786 March 1, 2017 All Hogs and Pigs 70,976

  • 55
  • 0.1%
  • 250
  • 0.4%
  • 305
  • 0.4%

70,671 Pig Crop 31,400 No revision

  • 262
  • 0.8%
  • 262
  • 0.8%

31,138 June 1, 2017 All Hogs and Pigs 71,650

  • 220
  • 0.3%
  • 220
  • 0.3%

71,430

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 4

U.S. Hogs and Pigs September 1

Item 2016 2017 % PY

1,000 head All Hogs and Pigs 71,786 73,549

102 Breeding Hogs 6,016 6,087 101 Market Hogs 65,770 67,462 103 less than 50 lbs 21,215 21,568 102 50-119 lbs 19,271 19,626 102 120-179 lbs 13,600 14,129 104 180 lbs & over 11,683 12,139 104 Sows Farrowed 3,057 3,103 102 Pig Crop 32,331 33,048 102

number Pigs per Litter 10.58 10.65 101 1,000 head

Sep-Nov Farrowings 3,046 3,070 101 Dec-Feb Farrowings 2,986 3,025 101

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 5

U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

2008 - 2017

September 28, 2017

71.4

61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

September 1 June 1

71.8 73.5

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SLIDE 6

September 1, 2017 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year

September 28, 2017

Inventory Down Up No Change Non-published States 3,189 103

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SLIDE 7

Trade Expectations Compared to NASS Estimates

Percent of Previous Year

Inventory Items NASS Estimate Trade Average Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs 102.5% 102.5% 101.7% – 103.3% Breeding Hogs 101.2% 101.2% 100.8% – 101.4% Market Hogs 102.6% 102.6% 101.7% – 103.5% Jun – Aug Pig Crop 102.2% 101.8% 100.3% – 103.0%

Farrowing Intentions

Sep – Nov 100.8% 100.6% 99.7% – 101.0% Dec – Feb 101.3% 100.1% 97.8% – 101.2%

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 8

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range

All Hogs and Pigs

First Estimate Versus Final Estimate

2008 - 2017

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 9

U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed

2008-2017

3.07 3.02 3.10

2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million head

Jun-Aug Estimate Sep-Nov Intentions Dec-Feb Intentions

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 10

Breeding Herd Inventory

Disposition and Utilization

Year Jun 1 Estimate

(1,000 head)

Slaughter

(1,000 head)

Additions

(1,000 head)

Sep 1 Estimate

(1,000 head)

Sow Utilization

(Percent) 2008 6,131 1,017 947 6,061 50 2009 5,968 963 870 5,875 50 2010 5,788 818 800 5,770 51 2011 5,803 848 851 5,806 50 2012 5,862 859 785 5,788 50 2013 5,884 796 728 5,816 49 2014 5,855 751 816 5,920 51 2015 5,926 798 858 5,986 51 2016 5,979 802 839 6,016 51 2017 6,069 828 846 6,087 51 September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 11

U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter

2008-2017

September 28, 2017

10.55 10.58 10.65

9.30 9.60 9.90 10.20 10.50 10.80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pigs per Litter

Jun-Aug Mar-May

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SLIDE 12

U.S. Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation

June - August 2017

10.65 7.80 8.50 9.10 9.50 10.40 10.70 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 11.00 All 1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-4,999 5,000+

Pigs per Litter Size of Operation

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 13

Canadian Imports by Quarter

Feeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thousand head

Feeder Slaughter

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 14

U.S. Prices Received by Farmers for Hogs and Corn

September 28, 2017

$1.50 $2.50 $3.50 $4.50 $5.50 $6.50 $7.50 $8.50 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Corn $/bu Hogs $/cwt

Hogs Corn

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SLIDE 15

Upcoming NASS Reports

Release Date Report Title

September 29 Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks October 2 Cotton System, Fats & Oils, Grain Crushings October 12 Crop Production October 20 Milk Production and Cattle on Feed October 30 Agricultural Prices

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 16

September 28, 2017

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SLIDE 17

All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions

(202) 720-3570 (800) 727-9540 nass@nass.usda.gov

United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 28, 2017