Sensitivity of the population size estimates for different - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sensitivity of the population size estimates for different - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 22, 2024 324 likes •558 views

C APTURE -R ECAPTURE U SUAL R ESIDENTS S CENARIO S E XPECTATIONS R ESULTS Sensitivity of the population size estimates for different imputations of a covariate B.F.M. Bakker 2 P.G.M. van der Heijden 3 S.C. Gerritse Utrecht University 2

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

Sensitivity of the population size estimates for different imputations of a covariate

S.C. Gerritse B.F.M. Bakker2 P.G.M. van der Heijden3

Utrecht University

2Statistics Netherlands/VU University 3Utrecht University/University of Southampton

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

CAPTURE RECAPTURE

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year.

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents?

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER)

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER) CSR has no usual residence →

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER) CSR has no usual residence → EM algorithm

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER) CSR has no usual residence → EM algorithm and Predictive Mean Matching

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER) CSR has no usual residence → EM algorithm and Predictive Mean Matching Estimate usual residence with Capture-Recapture

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

USUAL RESIDENTS

Usual Residents Residing in the Netherlands for 1 year. How to get an estimate of Usual Residents? Link Population Register (PR) to Crime Suspects Register (CSR) and Employment Register (ER) CSR has no usual residence → EM algorithm and Predictive Mean Matching Estimate usual residence with Capture-Recapture

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

RESEARCH QUESTION

Will different methods of handling missing data affect the population size estimate under capture recapture? And if so: How?

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

SCENARIO’S

Three scenario’s 1 Maximal model for EM algorithm

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

SCENARIO’S

Three scenario’s 1 Maximal model for EM algorithm 2 Restrictive model for EM algorithm

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

SCENARIO’S

Three scenario’s 1 Maximal model for EM algorithm 2 Restrictive model for EM algorithm

  • 3. Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) imputation
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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

EXPECTATIONS

Based on previous research and expert knowledge within CBS:

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

EXPECTATIONS

Based on previous research and expert knowledge within CBS: Usual residents between: 150.000 - 200.000

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

EXPECTATIONS

Based on previous research and expert knowledge within CBS: Usual residents between: 150.000 - 200.000 Population wise:

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

EXPECTATIONS

Based on previous research and expert knowledge within CBS: Usual residents between: 150.000 - 200.000 Population wise: CSR missing values very specific, will only resemble subset of the data

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

RESULTS - TOTAL

Results

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

RESULTS - OTHER WEST

Results

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CAPTURE-RECAPTURE USUAL RESIDENTS SCENARIO’S EXPECTATIONS RESULTS

Thank you!

Email: s.c.gerritse@uu.nl, sc.gerritse@cbs.nl Website: http://scgerritse.wordpress.com/