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International Comparison of Scientific Knowledge- Based Decision-Making Schemes for Disaster Reduction Presentation on

Seismic Risk Assessment in a Developing Country A Case Study of Pakistan

Prepared By

• Dr. Sarosh H. Lodi

Dean, Faculty of Civil Engineering & Architecture, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi Presented By

• Engr. Sohail Bashir

Vice-Chairman, The Institution of Engineers Pakistan

FIRST SYMPOSIUM OF ACECC TC21

• Nov. 18, 2016 Davao City - Philippines

TECTONIC PLATE SETTING AROUND PAKISTAN

Active Fault Map of Middle East Region

Seismic Zoning Map of Pakistan

Date Epicentre, region Magnitude Max intensity 1668 Samawani, Sindh 7.6 VIII to IX 1819 Allahbund, Sindh 7.2 IX to X 1852 Kahan, Balochistan 8 IX 1868 Peshawar, KPK 6 VII to VIII 1889 Jhalawan, Balochistan 8 VIII 1892 Qilla Abdullah, Balochistan 6.8 VIII to IX 1905 Kangra, North ~8 VII 1909 Sibi, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1929 Sibi, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1931 Sharigh Valley, Balochistan 7 VIII to IX 1931 Muchh, Balochistan 7.4 VII 1935 Quetta, Balochistan 7.5 VIII 1945 Pasni, Makran 8.3 VII to VIII 2001 Bhuj, Gujarat 7.6 VII 2005 Kashmir and Hazara 7.6 X 2008 Ziarat, Balochistan 6.4 VII 2011 Dalbandin, Balochistan 7.2 IV to V 2013 Mashkel, Balochistan 7.8 IX to X 2013 Awaran, Balochistan 7.7 IX

Major Earthquakes

National Disaster Risk Management System

Background

• National Calamities (Relief and Prevention) Act 1958
• Relief Commissioner ate System
• Revenue Department
• Reactive Approach
• Relief

After Kashmir Earthquake 2005

• Shift from Reactive to Disaster Risk Management Approach
• DRM Approach includes:

– Prevention – Mitigation – Preparedness – Response

PART I Acts, Ordinance, President’s Orders and Regulations GOVERNMENT OF PAKI STAN MI NI STRY OF LAW JUSTI CE AND HUMAN RI GHTS I slamabad, the 21st December 2006

• No. 2(1)/ 2006-Pub.(B). – The following Ordinance promulgated by the

President is hereby published for general information:-

ORDI NANCE NO. XL OF 2006 AN ORDI NANCE

to provide for the establishment of a National Disaster Management System for Pakistan

National Disaster Management System for Pakistan

Overview of Pakistani Built Environment

Journey through Pakistan

(Karachi to Bahawalpur)

Journey through Pakistan

(Bahawalpur to Islamabad)

Journey through Pakistan

(Islamabad to Haripur)

Journey through Pakistan

(Northern Kashmir)

Journey through Pakistan

(Muzaffarabad to Lahore)

Journey through Pakistan

(Lahore to RYK)

Journey through Pakistan

(RYK to Karachi)

Journey through Pakistan

(Thar)

Journey through Pakistan

(Khipro)

Journey through Pakistan

(Sanghar and Umerkot)

Journey through Pakistan

(Ketibunder)

Journey through Pakistan

(Nagar Parker)

Journey through Pakistan

(Karachi)

Journey through Pakistan

(Karachi)

Journey through Pakistan

(Muzaffarabad)

Journey through Pakistan

(Muzaffarabad)

Journey through Pakistan

(Muzaffarabad)

Journey through Pakistan

(Gwadar)

Journey through Pakistan

(Gwadar)

Journey through Pakistan

(Jiwani)

Journey through Pakistan

(Haider Goth and Gunz)

Journey through Pakistan

(Skardu)

Journey through Pakistan (Shangrila and Bunji)

Built Environment Planning

Reinforced Concrete (RC1)

Stone Masonry (M1)

Adobe Masonry (M2)

Wood/ Bamboo Reinforced Buildings (M7)

Concrete Block Masonry (M8)

Other Masonry (OO)

Brick Masonry Buildings (M5)

Total number of buildings as per 1998 building census = 15,818,279 Estimated number of buildings for 2005 = 18,994,185 Estimated number of buildings for 2014 = 23,850,563

Approximately 8 persons per building Building statistics

475 YEARS 2475 YEARS COUNTRY DAMAGE BEYOND REPAIR (D4+D5) (%) MODERATE DAMAGE (D3) (%) DAMAGE BEYOND REPAIR (D4+D5) (%) MODERATE DAMAGE (D3) (%) TURKEY 1.3 – 4.1 4.5 – 9 6 – 13.5 11 – 14 CYPRUS 5 – 12 12 – 19 16 – 31 21 – 24 IRAN 6 – 18 13 – 19 23 – 42 21 – 23 JORDAN 0.2 – 1.4 2 – 7 3 – 11 11 – 22 LEBANON 1.7 – 6.2 8 – 15 11 – 24 20 – 25 ARMENIA 5 – 19 18 – 34 22.5 - 50.5 36 – 40 GEORGIA 0.7 – 3.2 4 – 12 4.5 – 14 14 – 26 PAKISTAN 24 – 27 12 – 27 39 – 55 23 – 25

RISK ESTIMATION SUMMARY

International Cooperation for Acquisition & Sharing of Data

Location GPS to measure preliminary geodetic constraints on plate boundary deformation on the western edge of the Indian plate by Tri-University Network. Tri universities include NED University, University of Baluchistan and University of Peshawar International collaboration include University of Colorado, Boulder and University of Montana.

GPS locations – NED University

Velocity Contours at Makran

Velocity vectors

CITY OF KARACHI

SATELLITE IMAGE OF KARACHI

Administrative Division of Karachi

Land use in Karachi

Katchi Abbadies Built up Areas

Building Types Proportions

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment PGA map for ground motions for 75 years return period

No 4% Slight 11% Moderate 28% Extensive 57%

Damage distribution of buildings in Karachi

Complete 0.2%

Town Total (in percentage) No Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Baldia 5.1% 14.3% 28.5% 51.8% 0.3% Bin Qasim 3.8% 9.1% 37.7% 49.4% 0.1% Clifton Cant 1.2% 4.3% 31.8% 62.7% 0.0% GADAP 3.8% 10.1% 24.9% 61.0% 0.2% Gulberg 2.5% 7.5% 23.3% 66.6% 0.2% Gulshan-e-Iqbal 2.5% 8.0% 25.8% 63.6% 0.1% Jamshed 3.7% 11.2% 30.6% 54.3% 0.2% Karachi Cant 6.3% 17.2% 30.7% 45.2% 0.5% Kaemari 5.3% 14.1% 28.0% 52.2% 0.3% Korangi 2.4% 7.9% 32.0% 57.7% 0.1% Landhi 5.2% 14.4% 31.8% 48.3% 0.3% Liaquatabad 4.7% 14.0% 31.3% 49.7% 0.3% Lyari 1.8% 7.5% 32.3% 58.3% 0.0% Malir 3.1% 8.6% 22.1% 66.0% 0.2% New Karachi 1.6% 5.8% 24.2% 68.3% 0.1% North Nazimabad 3.3% 9.3% 22.7% 64.5% 0.2% Orangi 6.5% 16.6% 25.3% 51.2% 0.4% SITE 6.4% 17.3% 29.8% 46.1% 0.4% Saddar 4.5% 14.5% 34.8% 45.9% 0.4% Shah Faisal 2.4% 8.4% 30.6% 58.6% 0.1% Karachi 3.7% 10.7% 28.3% 57.0% 0.2%

Building Bye Laws in Pakistan

SEMINAR ACI CODE

HYDERABAD BUILDING AND TOWN PLANNING REGULATIONS- 2007

???

KBCA DHA FC CC KPT

Why Poor Built Environment?

• 1. Bid Procurement Procedure
• Many administrative districts invite sealed bids for the

construction of schools, hospitals, and other public works.

• The objective is to avoid inflated price estimates.
• The selection of the low‐bid may be a recipe for the

implementation of shoddy construction, or the use of poor quality materials.

• 2. Building codes are universally enforced in nations

where they have been adopted

• In developing nations alike earthquake resistant design

codes are adopted at a national level

• But weakly enforced at a local level, due to the

absence of technical capacity, will to implement, lack

• f enforcement mechanism.

• 3. Pressure on housing due to large population and

less space leads to rampant corruption

In urban centres, especially, there is always an acute shortage of housing either due to lack of space or huge migration from rural areas for better prospects. This puts more and more pressure on housing needs thus giving rise to slumps and unauthorised construction.

Especially, private developers in connivance with local building officials built structures which are unsafe. There is a common practice to built apartments which differ from approved drawings.

• 4. Migration to developed countries
• A majority of the trained man‐power migrates to the

developed countries for better prospects

• Thus leaving creating a vacuum which is filled by less

trained or improperly trained people who are completely unaware of implication of building codes etc.

Very often a homeowner or a group of homeowners will team up to build one or more dwellings for their families. They buy the land (sometimes), and stockpile the materials, buying minimum quantities and inferior qualities. Construction occurs with no technical guidance. Such structures may incorporate fatal omissions.

• 5. Socio – economic Condition of Homeowners

• 5. Corruption has eroded governance
• In most of the developing countries corruption is

rampant at all levels which at times erode governance completely

• Officials and politicians, both, circumvent laws to make

money

• Construction is a gold mine for them thus leading to

poor quality construction, violation of building codes

• 6. Bad Governance

One cannot only blame 'poor corruption' as the root cause of poor and ill-planned built environment - the weapons of mass destruction. Unlike developing countries, developed countries are more economically strong and thus have more and better managed resources and hence they are what they are. The difference is in the way developed countries have managed

• themselves. Developed countries are the result of prolonged and

sustained good governance as compared to the developing

• countries. Developed countries are normally considered to be

expensive but money collected from taxes and other service charges is well spent generally in developing infrastructure and provision of basic facilities.

In 350 BC, Aristotle suggested in The Politics that “. . . to protect the treasury from being defrauded, let all money be issued openly in front of the whole city, and let copies of the accounts be deposited in various wards.” i.e. remedy is to make the system transparent

Remedy

Way Forward

The Code Enabling Law Implementation Mechanism

A Possible Solution Techno – legal regime

IEP to Implement TC‐21 Agenda Before Khatmandu Meeting

• Formation of IEP National Team for TC-21
• Report (End of Feb 2019)
• Title: International Comparison of Scientific Knowledge-Based Decision-Making

Schemes for Disaster Reduction

• 1. Introduction (Brief outline of the case)
• 2. Schemes – Transdisciplinary Approach (TDA) to implement Scientific

Knowledge-Based Decision-Making for DRR

• 3. Flow of Knowledge – Cooperation mechanism to transfer and share

scientific knowledge from technological Institutions to local governments

• 4. Quality – Method to evaluate, maintain and improve the quality level of the

scientific knowledge and data

• 5. Summary
• 6. The way forward
• Journal paper on TDA for implementing Scientific Knowledge-Based

Decision-Making: This is also to be used as the basic guide for the TDA and implementation.

• Action plan and/or proposal for implementing TDA by a pilot project.

(1) Report (End of Feb 2019) Title: International Comparison of Scientific Knowledge-Based Decision- Making Schemes for Disaster Reduction

• 1. Introduction (Brief outline of the case)
• 2. Schemes – Transdisciplinary Approach (TDA) to implement Scientific

Knowledge-Based Decision-Making for DRR

• 3. Flow of Knowledge – Cooperation mechanism to transfer and share

scientific knowledge from technological Institutions to local governments

• 4. Quality – Method to evaluate, maintain and improve the quality level of

the scientific knowledge and data

• 5. Summary
• 6. The way forward

(1) Journal paper on TDA for implementing Scientific Knowledge-Based Decision-Making: This is also to be used as the basic guide for the TDA and implementation. (1) Action plan and/or proposal for implementing TDA by a pilot project.