Security in Pakistan: Adaptation Options and Strategies by PIDE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad and International Development Research Centre , Canada

Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Pakistan: Adaptation Options and Strategies by PIDE TEAM

• Scientific community agrees that climate change

is already a reality.

Introduction

• 262 mln people were affected

by climate disasters in 2004

• Over 98% in developing

countries

• Pakistan is the most vulnerable countries in South Asia.

Introduction……….

In 2010 floods, 20 million people were seriously

affected – women, elderly, children, poor

Uncertain & depends on the adaptation measures.

Source: Lemmen and Warren (2004 )Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective.

POSITIVE IMPACTS

NEGETIVE IMPACTS

Potential impacts of climate change on agricultural crops

•  temperatures
• Drier or wetter conditions
•  frequency climatic events
• Enhanced atmospheric CO2
• Changing market conditions

Higher productivity New crops

Longer growing seasons Higher productivity from enhanced CO2 Accelerated maturation rates

Lower moisture stress

Higher insect infestations

Crop damages from extreme heat Planning problems less reliable forecasts Greater Soil Erosion Higher weed growth and disease outbreaks Lower herbicide & pesticide efficacy Moisture stress & droughts

PROJECTED CHANGES Net impact

Factors Influencing Crop Production

Source: Ramamasy and Bass (2007) Climate Variability and Change: Adaptation to Drought in Bangladesh . Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre and FAO.

• Climatic factors are direct inputs to agriculture.
• Cereals are already under heat stress in South Asia. Yields

could  by 30% by end of century due to CC (IPCC, 2007).

• Pakistan is among the most vulnerable countries in South Asia
• - ranked 12th most vulnerable climate change in world.
• 10C   wheat yield  by 5–7% in Pakistan (Sivakumar et al ,

2011

Humidity Rainfall Temperature Solar Radiation Wind speed Transpiration

Evaporation

• These changes & their effects influence socio-economic

and environmental conditions -- impacting livelihoods, health, settlements.

• Majority of our population depends on agriculture.
• 80% irrigated

 making agriculture most sensitive to CC

http://www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2010/climate-change/ adaptation/7418_hayman.htm

Sector contributions and sensitivities to climate change

Water availability for food self-sufficiency (by 2050)

<1,300 m3/capita/year–deficit. Falkenmark, et al (2009)

“approaching end of the road unless income growth … allows .. to import the food required” (P65).

Pakistan is ranked 28th – affected by CC, 22 in Africa (IUCN, 2009).

Fire

Drought

Floods and Droughts Co-exist

Extreme weather events  serious disrupt food security

Imagine the human misery

Women and Children health at risk

Chronic food & Nutritional Insecurity Imbalance Leads to

review & evaluate existing policies & support functions

• f various institutions

examine the impact of CC on agricultural productivity and food security; investigate the factors affecting the farmers’ decisions related to adaptations; identify indigenously developed best-practices and adopted by the communities and assess their potential to be scaled;

Special focuses of the project are to:

Coping Strategies International experience. Pakistan?

IRRI developed drought resistant rice

Floating mat garden

 Build analytical capacity of the staff and students  Exploring the gender role in farm and off-farm activities with reference to adaptations towards adverse climate events.

No amount of technologies or external assistance can feed a nation that does not itself prioritize food security and agriculture (Norman Borlaug), which is highly dependent climate

Gaps in Research

• CC research on Pakistan lacks human dimension:

How people – the poor, the vulnerable, children,

females are affected by the CC.

This understanding is vital to come up with credible

strategies and actions.

• There is paucity of micro evidence on impact of CC and

adaptation on crop yields.

The approach?

• Comprehensive review of policy & research documents

and development initiatives dealing with CC, food security and disaster management issues;

• Review of R&D activities to assess how far the research

activities are geared to meet the challenges of CC;

• District level panel data shall be analysed – to capture

inter-temporal and inter-spatial variations

• Experimental data from various research stations of NARS

be examined -- sharply focused research and more precisely controlled factors and can be related to changes in technology and climatic variables

• Rapid Appraisal and focus group discussions:

 community perceptions on CC and coping strategies;  Identification of areas for in depth case studies.

• Household survey data -- captures spatial variation as

well as farm level technology, farm/farmer specific characteristics and other socio-economic factors  to estimate effect of CC & other stressors on productivity & cropping pattern in different agro- ecologies.

• The potential of indigenously developed best-practices

& adopted shall be assessed for scaling up with special emphasis on water and land conservation practices

• Policy & research gaps identified -- CC issues reprioritized

for policy decisions;

• Institutional capacity enhanced through training and
• ther relevant activities;
• Comprehensive knowledge on adverse climate events

happened overtime documented for different agro- ecologies;

• Experimental data interpreted in relation to CC variables;
• Emerging challenges for R&D specified from CC

perspective

Project Outcomes

Project Outcomes…..

• Impacts of adoption technological packages analysed at

household and regional levels

• Critical factors influencing adoption identified
• Preparation of HH and area specific action plans to combat

CC effects

• Feasibilities of best practices developed for replication

under relevant situations