Seasonal Forecast to Impact Outlook for Disaster Resilience in Asia-Pacific Sixteenth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) 7 th May 2020, Organized by Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) and WMO via Video Conferencing (14:00-16:00, Beijing Time)
THE DISASTER RISKSCAPE ACROSS ASIA-PACIFIC PATHW HWAYS FOR RESILI LIENC ENCE, INCLUSIO ION N AND EMPOWERME RMENT NT Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019
Asia-Pacific Disaster Riskscape: Annualized economic losses USD 675 billion –around 2.4 per cent of region’s GDP Climate risk accounts for 85 per cent of the regional ‘ risk sksc scpace ace ’ Volumetric analysis Source: ESCAP), Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019, Figure 1-1
Riskscape : selected country profile Source: ESCAP), Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019, Figure 1-2 Drought contributes to 70% of the losses attributed to weather/climate events Asia-Pacific climate risk (AAL): $ 575 billion Cyclone Drought Floods $ 405 billion (70%) $ 86 billion (15%) $ 86 billion (15%)
Floods and droughts are primarily driven by the Asian monsoon Seasonal outlook Seasonal forecast capture the temporal risk profile. Exposure of people/asset Probability of risk Vulnerability / 90 coping capacity 60 Potential Impacts Flood 30 Drought 0 Jun-20 Long-term, short-term Jul-20 Aug-20 development planning & Sep-20 Oct-20 Disaster management Asian Monsoon season
Population exposed to below/above-normal precipitation. Number of population exposed 40-60 below normal: 670 million people 60+ below normal: 78 million people 40-60 above normal: 1.02 billion people 60+ above normal: 14 million people
Identifying populations with multiple layers of vulnerability and hazards The Human Development Index ( HDI ) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. For development planning • Short-term: Provide immediate relief to drought- stricken areas with low HDI. • Long-term: Historical seasonal forecasts can be used to build a disaster-socioeconomic timeline to help policymakers properly budget in the national plans.
Hydropower plants exposed to potential drought Cap Capacit ity of of expo posed po power pl plants Moderate below normal 38% Extreme below normal 1% Moderate above normal 15% Nu Number of of expos osed po power pl plants Moderate below normal 37% Extreme below normal 2% Moderate above normal 19% Hy Hydr dro o % % of of El Electric icit ity Prod oduction Country Hydro % (2017) Myanmar 56.1 Viet Nam 44.8 Cambodia 39.1 Philippines 10.2 Thailand 5.11 Lao PDR N/A Source: ESCAP Asia-Pacific Energy Portal
Understanding potential impacts on region’s agricultural system Majo jor agri gricult lture systems in in Asia ia-Pacif ific exp xposed to o belo elow nor ormal l prec ecipit itation. share of Rice export the global value (2019) total export India $7.1billion 33% Thailand $4.2billion 19% Viet $2.6billion 12% Nam • 2018 data for Viet Nam Data source: ITC Trade map (accessed on 6 May 2020)
Multi-stakeholders dialogue and cooperation for climate resilience Enhancing the capacity of hydro-meteorological organizations to develop dynamic risk information, from global/regional resources, for managing drought. Selected resources/tools at: Regional Climate Outlook Forums https://public.wmo.int/en/our- mandate/climate/regional-climate- outlook-products Monsoon Forums http://www.rimes.int/soc-monsoon Preparedness Plans Monitoring Review ew of seasonal outlook Impact scenarios - develop strategies & - track actions taken - discuss likely conditions Climate adaptation tool kits plans for addressing during the season, for upcoming season - prepare potential potential impacts (monsoon) based on including uptake of impact scenarios https://www.unescap.org/sites/default historical data, currently seasonal outlooks and - discuss other relevant by sector observed conditions, and /files/publication_WEBdrr01_Agri.pdf issues and concerns constraints in applying forecast related to preparedness them
Thank you ! For any query, please contact: Sanjay Srivastava Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations ESCAP E Mail: srivastavas@un.org
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