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❚❤❡ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ ❛ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❡❝♦♥♦♠②

▼♦r✐t③ ▲❡♥❡❧✱ ▼♦♥✐❦❛ P✐❛③③❡s✐ ❛♥❞ ▼❛rt✐♥ ❙❝❤♥❡✐❞❡r ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✶✽

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ Et

• Mt+✶

✶+it ✶+πt+✶

• = ✶ → (✶+it) = Et
• Mt+✶

✶ ✶+πt+✶

−✶

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r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ❛❣❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ❂ ▼❘❙

■♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s

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❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❜❛♥❦ ♣♦❧✐❝② r❛t❡ it ❂ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧

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it ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ✫ πt+✶ st✐❝❦② → Mt+✶ ❛❞❥✉sts → r❡❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ s✉❝❝❡ss ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ♠✐①❡❞

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♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❛t ✜t ✇❡❧❧ ❧♦♥❣ ♠❛t✉r✐t② ❛ss❡ts ❞♦♥✬t ♣r✐❝❡ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ → s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t

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s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣❄ ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❞♦♥✬t ❤♦❧❞ s❤♦rt ❜♦♥❞s✱ ♦♥❧② ✈✐❛ ❜❛♥❦s✴▼▼❋s

▼♦t✐✈❛t✐♦♥

❙t❛♥❞❛r❞ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ Et

• Mt+✶

✶+it ✶+πt+✶

• = ✶ → (✶+it) = Et
• Mt+✶

✶ ✶+πt+✶

−✶

◮

r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ❛❣❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ❂ ▼❘❙

■♠♣♦rt❛♥t ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ❢♦r ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝s

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❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❜❛♥❦ ♣♦❧✐❝② r❛t❡ it ❂ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ✐♥ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧

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it ❝❤❛♥❣❡s → πt+✶ ✐s st✐❝❦② → Mt+✶ ❛❞❥✉sts → r❡❛❧ ❡✛❡❝ts

❊♠♣✐r✐❝❛❧ s✉❝❝❡ss ♦❢ ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ ♠✐①❡❞

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♠♦❞❡❧s t❤❛t ✜t ✇❡❧❧ ❧♦♥❣ ♠❛t✉r✐t② ❛ss❡ts ❞♦♥✬t ♣r✐❝❡ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ → s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t

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s✉r♣r✐s✐♥❣❄ ❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❞♦♥✬t ❤♦❧❞ s❤♦rt ❜♦♥❞s✱ ♦♥❧② ✈✐❛ ❜❛♥❦s✴▼▼❋s

❚❤✐s ♣❛♣❡r✿ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛♥❦s

◆♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✿ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ Mt+✶ ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❇❛♥❦s ✐ss✉❡ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✱ ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛ss❡ts ✫ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

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❢r✐❝t✐♦♥✿ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st❧②✱ ♠♦r❡ s♦ ✐❢ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❤✐❣❤ → ❜❛♥❦s ✈❛❧✉❡ s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s t♦ ❜❛❝❦ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts

❙❤♦rt s❛❢❡ s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s s❝❛r❝❡ → ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❡①❝❧✉s✐✈❡❧② ❜② ❜❛♥❦s

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♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❁ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ✐♥ Mt+✶ ✿❂ ✏s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✑

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tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❜❛♥❦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡ts

◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t

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❡st✐♠❛t❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛✿ ❤✐❣❤ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❜♦♦♠s

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❜❛♥❦ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q♥s✳✿ ❤✐❣❤ s♣r❡❛❞ → ❧♦✇ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧♦✇ s❛❢❡ ❛ss❡t s❤❛r❡

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❞❛t❛✿ st❛❜❧❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❛t ❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝✐❡s

❍♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s✱ ❜❛♥❦s✱ ❛ss❡ts

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

▲✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜ts ❢r♦♠ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✱ r❡s❡r✈❡s

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

❇❛♥❦ ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿ ❞❡❜t ✭❞❡♣♦s✐ts✮ ✈s ❡q✉✐t②

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

❙♦♠❡ ❛ss❡ts ❤❡❧❞ ❞✐r❡❝t❧② ❜② ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

❲❤♦ ❤♦❧❞s ❜♦♥❞s❄ ❇❛♥❦s ✇❛♥t s❛❢❡ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

❚❤✐s ♣❛♣❡r✿ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛♥❦s

◆♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✿ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ Mt+✶ ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❇❛♥❦s ✐ss✉❡ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✱ ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛ss❡ts ✫ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

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❢r✐❝t✐♦♥✿ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st❧②✱ ♠♦r❡ s♦ ✐❢ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❤✐❣❤ → ❜❛♥❦s ✈❛❧✉❡ s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s t♦ ❜❛❝❦ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts

❙❤♦rt s❛❢❡ s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s s❝❛r❝❡ → ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❡①❝❧✉s✐✈❡❧② ❜② ❜❛♥❦s

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♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❁ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ✐♥ Mt+✶ ✿❂ ✏s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✑

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tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❜❛♥❦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡ts

◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t

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❡st✐♠❛t❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛✿ ❤✐❣❤ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❜♦♦♠s

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❜❛♥❦ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q♥s✳✿ ❤✐❣❤ s♣r❡❛❞ → ❧♦✇ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧♦✇ s❛❢❡ ❛ss❡t s❤❛r❡

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❞❛t❛✿ st❛❜❧❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❛t ❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝✐❡s

❚❤✐s ♣❛♣❡r✿ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ✇✐t❤ ❜❛♥❦s

◆♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✿ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ Mt+✶ ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❇❛♥❦s ✐ss✉❡ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✱ ❝❤♦♦s❡ ❛ss❡ts ✫ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

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❢r✐❝t✐♦♥✿ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st❧②✱ ♠♦r❡ s♦ ✐❢ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❤✐❣❤ → ❜❛♥❦s ✈❛❧✉❡ s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s t♦ ❜❛❝❦ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts

❙❤♦rt s❛❢❡ s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s s❝❛r❝❡ → ♣r✐❝❡❞ ❡①❝❧✉s✐✈❡❧② ❜② ❜❛♥❦s

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♦❜s❡r✈❡❞ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❁ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ✐♥ Mt+✶ ✿❂ ✏s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✑

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tr❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ❜❛♥❦ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡ts

◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t

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❡st✐♠❛t❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛✿ ❤✐❣❤ ❛t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ ❜♦♦♠s

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❜❛♥❦ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q♥s✳✿ ❤✐❣❤ s♣r❡❛❞ → ❧♦✇ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧♦✇ s❛❢❡ ❛ss❡t s❤❛r❡

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❞❛t❛✿ st❛❜❧❡ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❛t ❜✉s✐♥❡ss ❝②❝❧❡ ❢r❡q✉❡♥❝✐❡s

▲✐t❡r❛t✉r❡

◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❝♦♥s✉♠♣t✐♦♥✲❜❛s❡❞✿ ▲✉❝❛s ✽✵✳✳✳

r❡❧❛t❡❞✿ s❤♦rt ❡♥❞ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ ❛r❜✐tr❛❣❡ ❢r❡❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s✿ ❉✉✛❡❡ ✾✻✳✳✳

❈♦♥✈❡♥✐❡♥❝❡ ②✐❡❧❞ ♦♥ ❜♦♥❞s P❛t✐♥❦✐♥ ✺✻✱ ❚♦❜✐♥ ✻✸✱ ❇❛♥s❛❧✲❈♦❧❡♠❛♥ ✾✻✱

❑r✐s❤♥❛♠✉rt❤②✲❱✐ss✐♥❣✲❏♦r❣❡♥s❡♥ ✶✷✱ ❱❡♥❦❛t❡s✇❛r❛♥✲❲r✐❣❤t ✶✷✱ ❆♥❞♦❧❢❛tt♦✲❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s♦♥ ✶✹✱ ◆❛❣❡❧ ✶✺

■♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❍❡✲❑r✐s❤♥❛♠✉rt❤② ✶✸✱ ❇r✉♥♥❡r♠❡✐❡r✲❙❛♥♥✐❦♦✈ ✶✹✱

• r❡❡♥✇♦♦❞✲❱❛②❛♥♦s ✶✹✱ ❇♦❝♦❧❛ ✶✺✱ ▼♦r❡✐r❛✲❙❛✈♦✈ ✶✺✱ ❑♦✐❥❡♥✲❨♦❣♦ ✶✺✱

❍❡✲❑❡❧❧②✲▼❛♥❡❧❛ ✶✼✱ ❍❛❞❞❛❞✲❙r❛❡r ✶✽✱ ❍❛♥s♦♥✲▲✉❝❝❛✲❲r✐❣❤t ✶✽

❇❛♥❦ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ✫ ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r r❡s❡r✈❡s ❇❤❛tt❛❝❤❛r②❛✲●❛❧❡

✽✼✱ ❲❤✐t❡s❡❧❧ ✵✻✱ ❈✉r❞✐❛✲❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✶✶✱ ❘❡✐s ✶✻✱ ❇✐❛♥❝❤✐✲❇✐❣✐♦ ✶✼✱ ❉r❡❝❤s❧❡r✲❙❛✈♦✈✲❙❝❤♥❛❜❧ ✶✼✱ ❉❡❋✐♦r❡✲❍♦❡r♦✈❛✲❯❤❧✐❣ ✶✼✱ P✐❛③③❡s✐✲❙❝❤♥❡✐❞❡r ✶✼

▼♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② ✇✐t❤ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥s ✫ ❜❛♥❦✐♥❣ ❈✉r❞✐❛✲❲♦♦❞❢♦r❞ ✶✵✱

• ❡rt❧❡r✲❑❛r❛❞✐ ✶✶✱ ●❡rt❧❡r✲❑✐②♦t❛❦✐✲◗✉❡r❛❧t♦ ✶✶✱ ❈❤r✐st✐❛♥♦✲▼♦tt♦✲❘♦st❛❣♥♦ ✶✷✱

❉❡❧ ◆❡❣r♦✲❊❣❣❡rts♦♥✲❋❡rr❡r♦✲❑✐②♦t❛❦✐ ✶✼✱ ❇r✉♥♥❡r♠❡✐❡r✲❙❛♥♥✐❦♦✈ ✶✻✱ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠s♦♥ ✶✷✱ ✶✹✱ ❉✐❚❡❧❧❛✲❑✉r❧❛t ✶✼✱ P✐❛③③❡s✐✲❘♦❣❡rs✲❙❝❤♥❡✐❞❡r ✶✽

◆♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✿ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t ❞❡♠❛♥❞

❉✐s❝r❡t❡ t✐♠❡✱ ✐♥✜♥✐t❡ ❤♦r✐③♦♥ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ◆♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✱ ✇❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ♦♥❧②

◮

r❡❛❧ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ Mt+✶ ♣r✐❝❡s ❛❧❧ r✐s❦② ❛ss❡ts → ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧ M$

t+✶ = Mt+✶Pt/Pt+✶

→ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞ r❛t❡ Et[M$

t+✶](✶+iB t ) ≤ ✶

→ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ✏s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✑ Et[M$

t+✶](✶+iS t ) = ✶

◮

✏♠♦♥❡② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ✑ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✿ vt(Dt/Pt) = iS

t −iD t

→ ♥❡❡❞s ❞❡♣♦s✐ts t♦ ♠❛❦❡ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s → ❛❝❝❡♣ts ❞❡♣♦s✐t r❛t❡ ❜❡❧♦✇ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✿ iS

t −iD t > ✵

❇❛♥❦s ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t s✉♣♣❧②

❇❛♥❦s ❛r❡ ❝♦♠♣❡t✐t✐✈❡ ✜r♠s✱ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ s❤❛r❡❤♦❧❞❡r ✈❛❧✉❡

◮

❡q✉✐t② ❤❡❧❞ ❜② ♥♦♥✲✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ s❡❝t♦r✱ ♣❛②♦✛ ❞✐s❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ❜② Mt+✶

❇❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡t

◮

t♦t❛❧ ❛ss❡ts At ❞♦❧❧❛rs → r❡s❡r✈❡s✱ s❤♦rt ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ ❜♦♥❞s✱ r✐s❦② ❝❧❛✐♠s

◮

♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ✇❡✐❣❤ts✿ r❡s❡r✈❡s αM

t ✱ s❤♦rt ❜♦♥❞s αB t

→ ✇❡✐❣❤t❡❞ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts rα,$

t+✶

◮

❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ℓt ❂ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts ✴ ❛ss❡ts

◆♦ ❡q✉✐t② ♦r ❛ss❡t ❛❞❥✉st♠❡♥t ❝♦sts

◮

❢r✐❝t✐♦♥❧❡ss ❡q✉✐t② ✫ ❜♦♥❞ ♠❛r❦❡ts

◮

❝♦♥s✐❞❡r s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ t✇♦ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ❜❛♥❦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠s

❋r✐❝t✐♦♥s

❉❡❧❡❣❛t❡❞ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st✱ ♣❡r ✉♥✐t ♦❢ ❛ss❡ts

◮

❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞❡r✐✈❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❜❛♥❦r✉♣t❝② ❝♦st

◮

✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✈❡① ✐♥ ❡①✲♣♦st ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡✿ k

• ℓt/(✶+rα,$

t+✶)

• ℓt/(✶+rα,$

t+✶) ❂ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts ✴ ✭♥♦♠✳ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts✮

→ ❧❛r❣❡ ✐❢ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts ✐s ❧♦✇ → ❝♦♥✈❡①✐t② ♠❛❦❡s ❜❛♥❦ ❡✛❡❝t✐✈❡❧② ♠♦r❡ r✐s❦ ❛✈❡rs❡ → k(✵) > ✵✿ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st❧② ❡✈❡♥ ❛t ③❡r♦ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

▲✐q✉✐❞✐t② ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st✱ ♣❡r ✉♥✐t ♦❢ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts

◮

❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞❡r✐✈❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❢r✐❝t✐♦♥❛❧ ✐♥t❡r❜❛♥❦ ❝r❡❞✐t ♠❛r❦❡t

◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✈❡① ✐♥ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② r❛t✐♦✿ f (mt) ✇✐t❤ mt ❂ ✭r❡s❡r✈❡s αM

t At✮ ✴ ✭❞❡♣♦s✐t♦rs✬ tr❛♥s❛❝t✐♦♥s ζtDt ✮

❇❛♥❦s✬ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠

❈❤♦♦s❡ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ℓ ✫ ❛ss❡t ✇❡✐❣❤ts α t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❧❡✈❡r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥

❛ss❡t ♣❛②♦✛s ♥❡t ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝♦st

• Et
• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+rα,$

t+✶)

• −✶
• At

❞❡♣♦s✐t ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ❧❡ss ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st + iS

t −iD t

✶+iS

t

−ζf (mt)

• Dt

❚r❛❞❡♦✛s

◮

❝❛♣✐t❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿ ❝❤❡❛♣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ✈s ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st

◮

r❡s❡r✈❡s✿ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t② ❝♦st

◮

♦t❤❡r ❛ss❡ts✿ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s r✐s❦

❇❛♥❦s✬ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠

❈❤♦♦s❡ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ℓ ✫ ❛ss❡t ✇❡✐❣❤ts α t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❧❡✈❡r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥

❛ss❡t ♣❛②♦✛s ♥❡t ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝♦st

• Et
• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+rα,$

t+✶)

• −✶
• At

❞❡♣♦s✐t ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ❧❡ss ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st + iS

t −iD t

✶+iS

t

−ζf (mt)

• Dt

❚r❛❞❡♦✛s

◮

❝❛♣✐t❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿ ❝❤❡❛♣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ✈s ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st

◮

r❡s❡r✈❡s✿ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t② ❝♦st

◮

♦t❤❡r ❛ss❡ts✿ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s r✐s❦

❇❛♥❦s✬ ♦♣t✐♠✐③❛t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠

❈❤♦♦s❡ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ℓ ✫ ❛ss❡t ✇❡✐❣❤ts α t♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❧❡✈❡r❡❞ r❡t✉r♥

❛ss❡t ♣❛②♦✛s ♥❡t ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❝♦st

• Et
• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+rα,$

t+✶)

• −✶
• At

❞❡♣♦s✐t ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ❧❡ss ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st + iS

t −iD t

✶+iS

t

−ζf (mt)

• Dt

❚r❛❞❡♦✛s

◮

❝❛♣✐t❛❧ str✉❝t✉r❡✿ ❝❤❡❛♣ ✜♥❛♥❝✐♥❣ ✈s ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❝♦st

◮

r❡s❡r✈❡s✿ ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s ♦♣♣♦rt✉♥✐t② ❝♦st

◮

♦t❤❡r ❛ss❡ts✿ ❡①♣❡❝t❡❞ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❜❡♥❡✜t ✈s r✐s❦

P❛②♠❡♥t ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣

❋❖❈ ❢♦r s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞✿ Et

• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• +k′
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+iB

t ) = ✶

P❛②♠❡♥t ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣

❋❖❈ ❢♦r s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞✿ Et

• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• +k′
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+iB

t ) = ✶

■♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧

◮

❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st ❡♥t❡rs ✐♥ t✇♦ ✇❛②s → ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❧♦✇❡rs t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts ✭❡✈❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ℓt = ✵✮ → ❛❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞♦❧❧❛r ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❧♦✇❡rs ❡①✲♣♦st ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

◮

❜❛❞ st❛t❡ ❢♦r ❜❛♥❦❄ ❧♦✇ ♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts✦ → ❤✐❣❤ ℓt/✭♥♦♠✐♥❛❧ r❡t✉r♥✮

P❛②♠❡♥t ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❛ss❡t ♣r✐❝✐♥❣

❋❖❈ ❢♦r s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞✿ Et

• M$

t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• +k′
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• (✶+iB

t ) = ✶

■♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ♣r✐❝✐♥❣ ❦❡r♥❡❧

◮

❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st ❡♥t❡rs ✐♥ t✇♦ ✇❛②s → ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❧♦✇❡rs t❤❡ r❡t✉r♥ ♦♥ ❛ss❡ts ✭❡✈❡♥ ✇❤❡♥ ℓt = ✵✮ → ❛❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❞♦❧❧❛r ♦❢ r❡❛❧✐③❡❞ r❡t✉r♥ ❧♦✇❡rs ❡①✲♣♦st ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

❘❡❛rr❛♥❣❡✿

iS

t −iB t ≈ Et

• M$

t+✶

• k′

˜ ℓt+✶

• ˜

ℓt+✶ −k

• ˜

ℓt+✶

• ◮

s♣r❡❛❞ iS

t −iB t ✿ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❜❡♥❡✜ts ❧❡ss ❞❡❧❡❣❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦st

◮

❝❛♥ s❤♦✇✿ ③❡r♦ s♣r❡❛❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❜❛♥❦s s❛❢❡ ✭αB +αM = ✶✮

◮

✐♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✿ r✐s❦② ❜❛♥❦ ✈❛❧✉❡s s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s ♠♦r❡ t❤❛♥ ♥♦♥✲✜♥ s❡❝t♦r → s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t

❲❤♦ ❤♦❧❞s ❜♦♥❞s❄ ❇❛♥❦s ✇❛♥t s❛❢❡ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧

Non-financial sector Reserves Banks Short safe bonds Risky bonds Other assets

❙❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛

▼♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ♣r✐❝❡s r✐s❦② ❝❧❛✐♠s✱ ❜✉t ♥♦t s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s✳ ❉❛t❛❄

◮

♠❡❛s✉r❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✿ ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ②✐❡❧❞ ❝✉r✈❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ → ❡①❝❧✉❞❡ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭●✉r❦❛②♥❛❦✱ ❙❛❝❦✱ ❲r✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✵✼✮✮

◮

s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✿ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡ ♠✐♥✉s ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ ❚✲❜✐❧❧ r❛t❡

❙❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛

1980 1990 2000 2010

• 0.5

0.5 1 1.5

%

5 10 15

%

Shadow spread T-bill rate

❙❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛

▼♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ♣r✐❝❡s r✐s❦② ❝❧❛✐♠s✱ ❜✉t ♥♦t s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s✳ ❉❛t❛❄

◮

♠❡❛s✉r❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✿ ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ t❡r♠ str✉❝t✉r❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ → ❡①❝❧✉❞❡ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭●✉r❦❛②♥❛❦✱ ❙❛❝❦✱ ❲r✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✵✼✮✮

◮

s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✿ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡ ♠✐♥✉s ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ ❚✲❜✐❧❧ r❛t❡

❙❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛

▼♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ♣r✐❝❡s r✐s❦② ❝❧❛✐♠s✱ ❜✉t ♥♦t s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s✳ ❉❛t❛❄

◮

♠❡❛s✉r❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✿ ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ②✐❡❧❞ ❝✉r✈❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ → ❡①❝❧✉❞❡ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭●✉r❦❛②♥❛❦✱ ❙❛❝❦✱ ❲r✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✵✼✮✮

◮

s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✿ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡ ♠✐♥✉s ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ ❚✲❜✐❧❧ r❛t❡

❉♦ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❤♦❧❞ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❞✐r❡❝t❧②❄

→ t❤❡② ❝♦✉❧❞✱ ❜✉t ❞♦♥✬t✿ ❚r❡❛s✉r②❉✐r❡❝t ❞❛t❛

❯❙ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆❝❝♦✉♥ts

❉❡t❛✐❧s

→ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❛r❡ ♣r❡❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t❧② ❤❡❧❞ ❜② ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r✐❡s → ✉♥❛❝❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ❜✐❧❧s ✜t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✫ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦ ❚r❡❛s✉r✐❡s

❙❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛

▼♦❞❡❧✿ Mt+✶ ♣r✐❝❡s r✐s❦② ❝❧❛✐♠s✱ ❜✉t ♥♦t s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s✳

◮

♠❡❛s✉r❡ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✿ ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ ②✐❡❧❞ ❝✉r✈❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ → ❡①❝❧✉❞❡ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❢r♦♠ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✭●✉r❦❛②♥❛❦✱ ❙❛❝❦✱ ❲r✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✵✼✮✮

◮

s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✿ ❡st✐♠❛t❡❞ s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡ ♠✐♥✉s ✸✲♠♦♥t❤ ❚✲❜✐❧❧ r❛t❡

❉♦ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ❤♦❧❞ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❞✐r❡❝t❧②❄

→ t❤❡② ❝♦✉❧❞✱ ❜✉t ❞♦♥✬t✿ ❚r❡❛s✉r②❉✐r❡❝t ❞❛t❛

❯❙ ❋✐♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ❆❝❝♦✉♥ts

❉❡t❛✐❧s

→ ♠❡❛s✉r❡❞ ❚✲❜✐❧❧s ❛r❡ ♣r❡❞♦♠✐♥❛♥t❧② ❤❡❧❞ ❜② ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r✐❡s → ✉♥❛❝❝♦✉♥t❡❞ ❜✐❧❧s ✜t ❞②♥❛♠✐❝s ✫ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡ ♦❢ ❜❛♥❦ ❚r❡❛s✉r✐❡s

❑❡② ♠♦❞❡❧ ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥

◮

❤✐❣❤❡r s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ → ❧♦✇❡r s❛❢❡ ❛ss❡t s❤❛r❡ ✫ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

❉❛t❛ ♦♥ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡t r❛t✐♦s

▼♦❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❡ ♣❛②♠❡♥t ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② s❡❝t♦r

◮

❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ lt ❂ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✴ ❛ss❡ts ✫ s❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡ αt

▼❡❛s✉r❡ ❞❡♣♦s✐ts✿ ♠♦♥❡② ♦❢ ③❡r♦ ♠❛t✉r✐t② ✭▼❩▼✮

◮

st❛❜❧❡ ♠♦♥❡② ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r ▼❩▼✱ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡s ♠♦♥❡② ♠❛r❦❡t ❢✉♥❞s

▼❡❛s✉r❡ ❛ss❡ts✿ ❞❡♣♦s✐t♦r② ✐♥st✐t✉t✐♦♥s ❛♥❞ ▼▼❋s ✐♥ ❋❧♦✇ ♦❢ ❋✉♥❞s

◮

❝♦♥s♦❧✐❞❛t❡ s❡❝t♦rs✱ s✉❜tr❛❝t ❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ✇✐t❤ ❤✐❣❤❡r s❡♥✐♦r✐t② t❤❛♥ Dt

▼❡❛s✉r❡ s❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡✿ ❢r❛❝t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s ✐♥ ❛❜♦✈❡

◮

❡✳❣✳ r❡s❡r✈❡s✱ ✈❛✉❧t ❝❛s❤✱ ❚r❡❛s✉r✐❡s✱ ♥❡t✲r❡♣♦ ❧♦❛♥s

❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝t✿ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ✈s✳ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 35 48 60 73

%

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

%

leverage iS-i B

❙t②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝t✿ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ✈s✳ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 10 15 20 25

%

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

%

iS-i B

❖♣t✐♠❛❧ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

❯s❡ ❜❛♥❦ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s t♦ s♦❧✈❡ ❢♦r ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡s

◮

s✉♠♠❛r✐③❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❜② αt = αM

t +αB t

→ ❣♦♦❞ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ αM

t

s♠❛❧❧ ♦r ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜ts s♠❛❧❧

◮

❝♦st ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✿ k

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• = b
• ¯

k +

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

γ

◮

r✐s❦② r❡t✉r♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❧♦❣✲♥♦r♠❛❧ ✉♥❞❡r M$

t+✶✲r✐s❦✲♥❡✉tr❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡

❙❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

αt ≈ ✶−

✶ γσ✷

t ❧♦❣

• ✶+ iS

t −iB t

b¯ k

• ◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞ ✭❡①♣❡♥s✐✈❡ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧✮✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦

▲❡✈❡r❛❣❡

ℓt ≈ ❡①♣(iS

t −αt(iS t −iB t ))❡①♣

• −

✶ ✷σ✷

t

✶ γ

• ❧♦❣
• ✶+ iS

t −rB t

b¯ k

✷

¯ k γ−✶

✶/γ

◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦✱ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ αt

❖♣t✐♠❛❧ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

❯s❡ ❜❛♥❦ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s t♦ s♦❧✈❡ ❢♦r ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ❛♥❞ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡s

◮

s✉♠♠❛r✐③❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❝❤♦✐❝❡ ❜② αt = αM

t +αB t

→ ❣♦♦❞ ❛♣♣r♦①✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ✇❤❡♥ αM

t

s♠❛❧❧ ♦r ❧✐q✉✐❞✐t② ❜❡♥❡✜ts s♠❛❧❧

◮

❝♦st ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✿ k

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• = b
• ¯

k +

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

γ

◮

r✐s❦② r❡t✉r♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❧♦❣✲♥♦r♠❛❧ ✉♥❞❡r M$

t+✶✲r✐s❦✲♥❡✉tr❛❧ ♠❡❛s✉r❡

❙❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

αt ≈ ✶−

✶ γσ✷

t ❧♦❣

• ✶+ iS

t −iB t

b¯ k

• ◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞ ✭❡①♣❡♥s✐✈❡ ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧✮✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦

▲❡✈❡r❛❣❡

ℓt ≈ ❡①♣(iS

t −αt(iS t −iB t ))❡①♣

• −

✶ ✷σ✷

t

✶ γ

• ❧♦❣
• ✶+ iS

t −rB t

b¯ k

✷

¯ k γ−✶

✶/γ

◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦✱ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ αt

❖♣t✐♠❛❧ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

❙❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡

αt ≈ ✶−

✶ γσ✷

t ❧♦❣

• ✶+ iS

t −iB t

b¯ k

• ◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦

▲❡✈❡r❛❣❡

ℓt ≈ ❡①♣(iS

t −αt(iS t −iB t ))❡①♣

• −

✶ ✷σ✷

t

✶ γ

• ❧♦❣
• ✶+ iS

t −rB t

b¯ k

✷

¯ k γ−✶

✶/γ

◮

❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ s♣r❡❛❞✱ ✐♥❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ r✐s❦✱ ❞❡❝r❡❛s✐♥❣ ✐♥ αt

◗✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❡ ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t

◮

αt,ℓt,iS

t −iB t ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡✱ σt ✉♥♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡

✶✳ s✉❜st✐t✉t❡ ♦✉t σt t♦ r❡❧❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ t♦ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✱ s❛❢❡ s❤❛r❡❀ ✉s❡ r❡s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ❡st✐♠❛t❡ ❝♦st ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ✷✳ ❜❛❝❦ ♦✉t γσt ❢r♦♠ s❛❢❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥

◮

✧❙✉❝❝❡ss✧ ❂ ❣♦♦❞ ✜t ♦❢ ✶✳ ✰ r❡❛s♦♥❛❜❧❡ s❡r✐❡s ❢r♦♠ ✷✳

▼♦❞❡❧ ✈s ❞❛t❛

s✉❜st✐t✉t❡ ♦✉t σt t♦ r❡❧❛t❡ ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ t♦ s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞✱ s❛❢❡ s❤❛r❡✿ →

ℓt = ❡①♣(iS

t −αt(iS t −iB t ))❡①♣

• − ✶

✷(✶−αt)❧♦❣

• ✶+ iS

t −iB t

b¯ k

• ¯

k γ−✶

✶/γ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 40 50 60 70

%

data leverage

• pred. leverage

▼♦❞❡❧ ✈s ❞❛t❛

❯s❡ ❜❛♥❞♣❛ss ✜❧t❡r ✭✶✳✺②✲✽②✮ t♦ ✐s♦❧❛t❡ ❝②❝❧✐❝❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

• 10
• 5

5 10

%

data leverage

• pred. leverage

▼♦❞❡❧ ✈s ❞❛t❛

❘❡❛rr❛♥❣❡ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ s❤❛r❡ ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥✿ γσ✷

t = ✶ ✶−αt ❧♦❣

• ✶+ iS

t −iB t

b¯ k

• ◮

❜❛❝❦❡❞ ♦✉t s❡r✐❡s s♣✐❦❡s ✐♥ t✐♠❡s ♦❢ ✜♥❛♥❝✐❛❧ ♠❛r❦❡t ❞✐str❡ss

◮

✐♠♣❧✐❡❞ ❝♦st ✐♥ s✐♥❣❧❡ ❞✐❣✐t ❜❛s✐s ♣♦✐♥t r❛♥❣❡

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.5 1 1.5

2

❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

▼♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ✇✐t❤ ♣❛②♠❡♥t ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r✐❡s

◮

❜❛♥❦s ✈❛❧✉❡ s❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞s ❛s ❝♦❧❧❛t❡r❛❧ → ❞✐s❝♦♥♥❡❝t ♦❢ s❤♦rt r❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ✏s❤❛❞♦✇ r❛t❡✑

◮

s❤❛❞♦✇ s♣r❡❛❞ ❛♥❞ r❡t✉r♥ r✐s❦ → ❧❡✈❡r❛❣❡ ✫ ♣♦rt❢♦❧✐♦ ❝❤♦✐❝❡

❊st✐♠❛t❡❞ ❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ❝❛♣t✉r❡ ❝②❝❧✐❝❛❧ ❝♦✲♠♦✈❡♠❡♥t

◮

str✉❝t✉r❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ❛ss❡t ♠❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥t ❝♦st ♠❛② ✐♠♣r♦✈❡ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ ✜t

❚r❛♥s♠✐ss✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♠♦♥❡t❛r② ♣♦❧✐❝② t❤r♦✉❣❤ ✐♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ s❤❡❡ts

❚✲❇✐❧❧ ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s ✐♥ ❋♦❋

■♥t❡r♠❡❞✐❛r② ❚r❡❛s✉r② ❤♦❧❞✐♥❣s

❇❛❝❦

❊✉❧❡r ❡q✉❛t✐♦♥s ✫ ❞❡♣♦s✐t ❋❖❈

❉❡✜♥❡ M$,B

t+✶ = M$ t+✶

• ✶−k
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• +k′
• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• ℓt

✶+rα,$

t+✶

• ❘✐s❦② ❜♦♥❞

Et

• M$,B

t+✶

• (✶+iM

t ) = ✶+f ′ (mt)

❙❤♦rt s❛❢❡ ❜♦♥❞ Et

• M$,B

t+✶

• (✶+iB

t ) = ✶

❘❡s❡r✈❡s Et

• M$,B

t+✶

• (✶+iM

t ) = ✶+f ′ (mt)

❉❡♣♦s✐t ❋❖❈

iS

t −iD t

✶+iS

t = Et

• M$

t+✶ k′

˜ ℓt+✶

• (✶+iD

t )

• +ζt f (mt)−ζt f ′(mt)mt