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rupert report peter rupert professor department of economics, ucsb - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
rupert report peter rupert professor department of economics, ucsb - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
rupert report peter rupert professor department of economics, ucsb director, ucsb economic forecast project league of california cities december 13, 2017 what we dont know solving issues without knowing what the issue is problem is that
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issues at hand
noticeable changes since the election? international trade immigration health care tax reform ...but keep this in mind
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1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0
Econsnapshot.com Source: BEA
Real GDP
Log Real Per Capita GDP, 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted Linear Trend
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...but we can go back even farther
economic growth long history of increasing output
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1800 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 Log Real GDP (U.S.)
Source: Maddison Project
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...and farther
how far you ask?
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how are we doing more recently?
what does the market think? gdp and economic growth?? why so slow? labor markets continue to expand
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the stock market
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1000 1500 2000 2500
SP500
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Election
Jan 01 2016 Apr 01 2016 Jul 01 2016 Oct 03 2016 Jan 02 2017 Apr 03 2017 Jul 03 2017 Oct 02 2017 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
SP500
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My Birthday
Jan 01 2016 Apr 01 2016 Jul 01 2016 Oct 03 2016 Jan 02 2017 Apr 03 2017 Jul 03 2017 Oct 02 2017 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
SP 500
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gross domestic product = income
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Percent
−2 2 4 6
2.8% 0.8% 3.1% 4% −0.9% 4.6% 5.2% 2% 3.2% 2.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.6% 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 3.1% 3.3%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Econsnapshot.com Source: BEA
Real GDP
quarterly change at an annual rate year−over−year change
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Quarters after trough
Source: BEA
Real GDP
Trough during recession = 1
1960 cycle 1969 cycle 1973 cycle 1981 cycle 1990 cycle 2001 cycle Current cycle
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1949 Q1 1954 Q2 1958 Q2 1961 Q1 1970 Q4 1975 Q1 1982 Q4 1991 Q1 2001 Q4 2009 Q2 Trough Date
2 4 6 8
5.71 3.82 5.35 4.88 4.44 3.91 4.18 3.5 2.74 2.12 Econsnapshot.com Source: BEA
GDP Growth During an Expansion
Average, annualized rate of change
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so, why so slow?
new research
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so, why so slow?
new research leisure on the job has gone up!
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so, why so slow?
new research leisure on the job has gone up! technology: makes you more productive but also easier to take leisure on the job!
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labor market
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N D J F M A M J J A S O N
−100 100 200 300 400
- econsnapshot.com
Source: BLS
Net Payroll Employment Change
Thousands, SA
first estimate second estimate final
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2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 58 59 60 61 62 63
econsnapshot.com Source: BLS
Employment to Population Ratio
Percent, SA
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1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 63 64 65 66 67
econsnapshot.com Source: BLS
Labor Force Participation Rate
Percent, SA
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1948 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 30 40 50 60 70 80 Men Women 55+ 16−19
econsnapshot.com Source: BLS
Labor Force Participation Rates
Percent, SA
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seasonality
employment and unemployment look at employment composition farm information leisure and hospitality
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2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 180 190 200 210
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted
Total Employment, All Industries, Santa Barbara County
Number Employed (Thousands)
Most Recent (Unadjusted) = 209,000 Most Recent (Adjusted) = 206,498 Percent Change (Month) = 0.74 % and Percent Change (Year) = 1.85 %
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2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100
Original Series Seasonally Adjusted
Total Employment, All Industries, Santa Clara County
Number Employed (Thousands)
Most Recent (Unadjusted) = 1,104,900 Most Recent (Adjusted) = 1,098,746 Percent Change (Month) = 0.21 % and Percent Change (Year) = 1.43 %
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housing
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2000−Jan 2002−Jan 2004−Jan 2006−Jan 2008−Jan 2010−Jan 2012−Jan 2014−Jan 2016−Jan 40 60 80 100 120 140
US [ $ 203,400 ] Arizona [ $ 228,400 ] California [ $ 512,800 ] Colorado [ $ 340,000 ] Hawaii [ $ 606,100 ] Nevada [ $ 250,100 ] Oregon [ $ 312,500 ] Washington [ $ 344,300 ] www.efp.ucsb.edu Source: Zillow Research Data Note: Current value in brackets.
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
Index (100 = Pre−Recession Maximum Value)
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1996−Apr 1999−Jan 2002−Jan 2005−Jan 2008−Jan 2011−Jan 2014−Jan 2017−Jan 40 60 80 100 120
San Francisco, CA[ $871,300 ] Los Angeles, CA[ $615,800 ] San Diego, CA[ $555,800 ] Santa Barbara, CA[ $580,200 ] Sacramento, CA[ $376,900 ] Riverside, CA[ $335,200 ] California [ $512,800 ] www.efp.ucsb.edu Source: Zillow Research Data Note: Current value in brackets.
Zillow Home Value Index, by MSA
Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)
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analyzing policy changes
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a simple framework
law of demand make something more expensive, people will do less of it buy less of it substitute away from it
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speaking of taxes...
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federal, state and local taxes
not enough time to talk about tax reform but how about gasoline tax policy?
- Nov. 1, 2017
state gas tax up 12¢ to 41¢ per gallon state diesel fuel tax up 20¢ to 36¢ per gallon
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4% 8% 8% 10% 11% 38% 50% 54% 57% 95% 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Georgia Tennessee Indiana Utah Oregon New Jersey California Rhode Island Connecticut Washington D.C Bad Roads Good Roads
Miles of Road
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$0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 Georgia Tennessee Indiana Utah Oregon New Jersey California Rhode Island Connecticut Washington D.C
Road Cost Per Year Per Motorist
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fed stuff
fed met yesterday and today sounded like a snooze-fest so what did they do/say?
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fed stuff
fed met yesterday and today sounded like a snooze-fest so what did they do/say? Answer: up 25bp/nothing
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the policy statement
“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters.”
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the future and the fed
fed stuff reading level for fed statements
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5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level Statement Release Date
FOMC Statements: Reading Grade Level and Length
Greenspan Bernanke Yellen 600 100
NOTE: Reading grade-level calculated by ETS TextEvaluatorSM; https://texteval-pilot.ets.org/TextEvaluator/. SOURCE: FOMC post-meeting statements: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc_historical.htm. December 16, 2008 Beginning of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Number of Words Chair
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final thoughts
economy continues its solid growth
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final thoughts
economy continues its solid growth will there be a recession?
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final thoughts
economy continues its solid growth will there be a recession? yes
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