Rupert Report Peter Rupert Professor Department of Economics, UCSB - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rupert Report Peter Rupert Professor Department of Economics, UCSB - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 13, 2023 212 likes •716 views

Rupert Report Peter Rupert Professor Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Update January 26, 2017 www.efp.ucsb.edu/talk economics and the election what to expect uncertainty what to expect

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Rupert Report

Peter Rupert Professor Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Update January 26, 2017 www.efp.ucsb.edu/talk

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economics and the election

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what to expect

uncertainty

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade taxes and spending

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade taxes and spending Obamacare

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade taxes and spending Obamacare

  • il/energy
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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade taxes and spending Obamacare

  • il/energy

immigration

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what to expect

uncertainty Dodd-Frank international trade taxes and spending Obamacare

  • il/energy

immigration ugh, I need a lot more slides! but...

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1929 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

Real GDP

Logged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted

Linear Trend

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so far...

some positive signs stock market gdp FOMC a bit more upbeat

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)

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Election

Jan 01 2016 Mar 01 2016 May 02 2016 Jul 01 2016 Sep 01 2016 Nov 01 2016 Jan 02 2017 16 17 18 19 20

Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)

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My Birthday

Jan 01 2016 Mar 01 2016 May 02 2016 Jul 01 2016 Sep 01 2016 Nov 01 2016 Jan 02 2017 16 17 18 19 20

Dow Jones Industrial Index (000’s)

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Percent −2 2 4 6

2.8% 0.8% 3.1% 4% −1.2% 4% 5% 2.3% 2% 2.6% 2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.4% 3.5%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Econsnapshot.com Source: BEA

Real GDP

quarterly change at an annual rate year−over−year change

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what’s up with our friends at the Fed?

increases this year?

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housing and financial aspects

home price growth has moderated mortgage crisis has abated foreclosures back to “normal” yet, foreclosure timelines not!

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20 40 60 80 100 120

Santa Barbara[ $1,064,100] Carpinteria[ $788,600] Montecito[ $3,048,500] Goleta[ $786,800] Santa Maria[ $352,500] Lompoc[ $307,000] Guadalupe[ $266,900]

Zillow Home Value Index

Index (100 = Pre−Recession Max Value)

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2001−Feb 2004−Feb 2007−Feb 2010−Feb 2013−Feb 2016−Feb −40 −20 20 40

Santa Barbara[6%] Carpinteria[0%] Montecito[7%] Goleta[3%] Santa Maria[8%] Lompoc[10%] Guadalupe[12%]

Zillow Home Value Index

YoY Growth Rate (%)

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Q1 1995 Q1 1998 Q1 2001 Q1 2004 Q1 2007 Q1 2010 Q1 2013 Q4 2015 16 18 20 22 24 26

www.efp.ucsb.edu Source: Board of Governors, Flow of Funds

Ratio of HH Liabilities to HH Net Worth

Percent (%)

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 10 20 30 40 50 60

Riverside, CA Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA Los Angeles, CA San Francisco, CA California

Homes foreclosed per month, by MSA

Number of homes per 10,000

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2011−Q2 2012−Q1 2012−Q4 2013−Q3 2014−Q2 2015−Q1 2015−Q4 2016−Q3 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40

Santa Barbara California United States

Percent of Home with Negative Equity

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Santa Barbara County Santa Maria Santa Barbara City Lompoc Goleta Carpinteria Solvang Guadalupe Buellton

0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 10 % 12 % 14 %

Percent of Homes with Negative Equity

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Santa Barbara County Santa Maria Santa Barbara City Lompoc Goleta Carpinteria Solvang Guadalupe Buellton

0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Negative Equity Loan−to−Value: 2016Q3

100−120% 120−140% 140−160% 160−180% 180−200% >200%

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income and wages

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1969 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18

US California

Gini Coefficient

Real per capita personal income across counties

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new findings on inequality

most of the inequality is “between firms” not “within firms”

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labor markets

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wages

wage growth picking up in the US but not evenly across the state

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 −2 2 4

CPI AHE

Inflation and Average Hourly Earnings

Percent change from a year ago, all private workers

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[−1%, 0%] (0%, 1%] (1%, 2%] (2%, 3%] (3%, 6%]

Real Mean Wage Growth 2015 − 2016

Source: CA EDD

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employment

employment growth strong but varies by industry and geography unemployment as well

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 95 100 105

Santa Barbara County [ 175,120 ] California [ 15,476,015 ] United States [ 138,434,120 ] www.efp.ucsb.edu

Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Dec 2007 = 100)

Notes: December 2007 level in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 100 105 110 115

Buellton [ 3,127 ] Carpinteria [ 7,775 ] Goleta [ 17,433 ] Guadalupe [ 3,231 ] Lompoc [ 17,601 ] Santa Barbara City [ 51,151 ] Santa Maria [ 46,649 ] Solvang [ 2,706 ] www.efp.ucsb.edu

Total Civilian Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

Index (Jan 2010 = 100)

Note: Current level in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 4 6 8 10 12

Buellton [ 2.9% ] Carpenteria [ 3.97% ] Goleta [ 2.71% ] Guadalupe [ 4.3% ] Lompoc [ 5.95% ] Santa Barbara City [ 3.64% ] Santa Maria [ 5.53% ] Solvang [ 5.63% ] www.efp.ucsb.edu

Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Percent (%)

Note: Most recent rate in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD

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Government Leisure & Hospitality

  • Educ. & Health Services

Goods Producing

  • Prof. & Bus. Services

Total Farm Retail Trade Financial Activities Other Services Wholesale Trade Information Trans., Ware. & Util.

19.2 14.2 13 11 10.6 10.2 9.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.7

−2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 25 50 75 100 Percent of Total Employment Dec 2015 − Dec 2016 Growth Rate (%)

December 2016 Employment by Industry Santa Barbara County

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final thoughts

policy uncertainty strong growth in the US FOMC forecast: 3 25bp increases in 2017?

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1929 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

Real GDP

Logged Billions of 2009$, Seasonally Adjusted

Linear Trend

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thank you!