Rob Huebert Rh Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca b t@ l Calgary April 20 , - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING ARCTIC Centre for Military and Strategic Studies SECURITY ENVIRONMENT TThe Society Of Naval Architects And Marine Engineers – Arctic Section

Rob Huebert

Rh b t@ l Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca Calgary April 20 , 2012

Main Themes

• Increasing International and Canadian

Increasing International and Canadian Debate as to what the Arctic will look like in the future – physical; economic; cultural; in the future physical; economic; cultural; and geopolitical

• A New Arctic Security Environment is
• A New Arctic Security Environment is

Forming on a Global Basis – What will it look like? look like?

• How will this impact Canada? United

S ? Wh d C d d h U i d States? What does Canada and the United States need to do?

The Transforming Arctic

• The Arctic is a state of massive

transformation

– Climate Change – Resource Development – (was up to a high Resource Development (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $108 barrel) – Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization p

The Image of Change: Accessibility The Melting Ice: Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008 p p

Source: Canadian Ice Service

The Economics: The Hope of Resources Oil and Gas: Resources of the North

Oil and Gas

Oil and Gas: Resources of the North

Source: AMAP

Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic boundaries in the Arctic

www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

The Changing Technologies: P d A i LNG Proposed Arctic LNG

Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

New Signs of Cooperation

• Public Pronouncements
• Creation of Arctic Council

Creation of Arctic Council

• Application of UNCLOS

N R i M i i B d

• Norway-Russia Maritime Boundary

Delimitation 2010

• Arctic Council – Search and Rescue

Agreement 2010

• Public Pronouncements…..

New Signs of Competition

• Russia

– Renewed Assertiveness/ Petrodollars

• United States

– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act – International Role as remaining Superpower

• Norway

Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia – Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia

• Denmark

– Issues with Greenland – social; energy – Rebuilding Armed Forces Rebuilding Armed Forces

• Iceland

– Economic melt-down/Volcano melt-down – Developing relationship with China p g p

• Finland/Sweden

– Closer cooperation with NATO

• Canada

– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities – Renewed Assertiveness

Policy Statements

• United States

– National Security Presidential Directive 66 Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009) 2009) – USN Arctic Roadmap

• Russia

– Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015 Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007 2015 – Principles of State Policy in the Arctic to 2020, (September, 2008)[

• Norway

– The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy,”(April 2007) The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy, (April 2007) – Norwegian Defence 2008 (June 2008):

• Canada

– Northern Strategy (July 2009) Northern Strategy (July 2009)

• Denmark

– Danish Defence Agreement 2010-2014 Copenhagen (June 2009)

Source: http://cmss.ucalgary.ca/foreignpolicy

New and Developing Arctic Force C bili i Capabilities

• Russia

– 6 - Borey SSBN; 2- Yasen SSN; 5-6 Carrier Groups; New Bomber 2020; 2 4Misteal Assault Vessels

• United States

United States

– F-22, Virginia class; ABM

• Norway

– Fridtjof Nansen Frigates; F-35; Svalbard

• Canada

– Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels, F-35

• Denmark

N Th i K d R Fl fi k l – Navy: Thesis; Knud Ramussen; Flyvefisken classes

Exercises

R i

• Russia

– 8-9,000 troops 09; 2 Delta’s IV 09; 16 Bomber Patrols 2010; 12 naval operations 2010 Patrols 2010; 12 naval operations 2010

• United States

Northern Edge 1993 1/; 8 10 000 troops – Northern Edge – 1993-1/; 8-10,000 troops

• Norway

C ld R 2006 2010 7 9 000 t – Cold Response -2006-2010; 7-9,000 troops – 2010 in Norway and Sweden

C d

• Canada

– Op Nanook 2002-2011 – 750 troops

Fi l d/S d

• Finland/Sweden

– Loyal Arrow 2009 3000 troops

Russia Renewed Russian Strengths (?)

• 1990s

Period of Red ction

• 1990s – Period of Reduction

– AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning Decommissioning

• 2000s – Renewal
• 6 SSBN 995 Borey
• 6 SSBN 995 Borey

– 1 built; 3 building

• 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney
• 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney

– 1 built; 2 building

E i Ch ll

Yury Dolgoruky

• Economic Challenges
• Putin’s Control

Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, August 18, 2007

• If US/EU position on Northwest Passage is correct

then these aircraft have the right of over-flight g g

US Arctic Interests

• National Security Presidential Directive -Arctic

Region Policy (January 9, 2009)

• “The United States has broad and fundamental

national security interests in the Arctic region and i d t t ith i d d tl i is prepared to operate either independently or in conjunction with other states to safe-guard these interests”

– missile defence and early warning; – deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence maritime presence and maritime strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations; – ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight.

• But will the US have political will/economic

capabilities to be an Arctic Power?

US Arctic Forces

• Submarine Forces:
• US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class
• Cooperation with UK
• ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN
• ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina

Mi il D l t

• Missile Development

Missile Defence – Ft. Greely

ICEX 2011 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

Alaska Aerospace Defence

• 186 F 22 to be built
• 186 F-22 to be built

– 36 are being deployed to Alaska

20% f l l

• 20% of total arsenal
• Ft. Greeley - ABM

Norway Norway Norwegian Arctic Focus

• The High North is the most important priority area
• f the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of

Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen – April 2008

• 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates

– Very capable

• Helicopters stationed at northern base of

B d f Bardufoss

• Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008

New Norwegian Maritime Forces

• Fridtjof Nansen class
• 5 built in Spanish Yards
• 5 built in Spanish Yards
• Aegis system
• Coast Guard armed

Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard Roald Amundsen

Finland/Sweden

• Loyal Arrow – June 2009
• 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels
• Finland developing closer links with NATO

HMS A k R l HMS Ark Royal in Swedish waters

Swedish/Baltic Response to Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia

• Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK,

Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania y, , , , plus Finland, Sweden

• Swedish FM - Submarines

Swedish FM Submarines

Mistral Mistral

China

• Snow Dragon was not detected by Canada until

arriving in Tuk

• 1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999

d

i l

arriving in Tuk

• 2nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003
• 3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008
• Polar Research Institute of China

Polar Research Institute of China

New Chinese Icebreaker

French Arctic Deployments

• Annual French Arctic submarine missions
• 27th mountain infantry brigade – Arctic

27 mountain infantry brigade Arctic Operations

• Airforce operations in Sweden Finland
• Airforce operations in Sweden, Finland,

Norway All f l i A i

• All surface naval units must carry out Arctic

deployment

– Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010

What is Canada doing? What is Canada doing?

N Mili O i i 2002

• New Military Operations since 2002
• 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels
• Nanisivik Refueling Facility
• Nanisivik Refueling Facility
• Resolute Bay Training Facility
• Increased Rangers Patrols

g

• Number 58 to 61
• Training and Equipment
• Northern Watch
• Northern Watch
• Throne Speech Oct 2007

– Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security) gy ( g y y)

Canadian Actions (cont.) Canadian Actions (cont.)

• Feb 2008 B dget

$720 Million

• Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million

Icebreaker

• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy
• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy

(Harper White Paper)

Focus on Arctic Security

• Focus on Arctic Security
• Northern Strategy summer 2009

Four pillars

• Four pillars
• Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic –

Nordreg Nordreg

Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel

General Arrangements – Upper Deck

15

B

15

Source: Canadian Navy

Canadian Northern Exercises

• Resumed in 2002 – Operation Narwhal
• Hudson Sentinel – 2 005 Hudson Bay

Hudson Sentinel 2 005 Hudson Bay

• Operation Nanook – Eastern Arctic

750 t d OGD – 750 troops and OGD

• Operation Nunakput –Western Arctic
• Operation Nunalivut – Ranger Patrol

The Emerging Arctic Security The Emerging Arctic Security Regime

• Circumpolar states have called for cooperation

– What will be the new international governance g regime?

• Circumpolar states are building up their combat

capable force for the Arctic – New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable – New Policies – Unilateral “concern” – New Training

The Future for Canada-US The Future for Canada US The Need for Cooperation

• Need to resolve ongoing diplomatic disputes

– NWP f – Beaufort Sea

• Opportunity to develop further develop

cooperation cooperation

– Chairpersonship of Arctic Council – Operation Nanook – New Icebreakers?

• Need to avoid pointless differences

Fi hi M i – Fishing Moratorium