Centre for Military and Strategic Studies THE CONTINUALLY CHANGING ARCTIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT TThe Society Of Naval Architects And Marine Engineers – Arctic Section Rob Huebert Rh Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca b t@ l Calgary April 20 , 2012
Main Themes • Increasing International and Canadian Increasing International and Canadian Debate as to what the Arctic will look like in the future – physical; economic; cultural; in the future physical; economic; cultural; and geopolitical • A New Arctic Security Environment is • A New Arctic Security Environment is Forming on a Global Basis – What will it look like? look like? • How will this impact Canada? United S States? What does Canada and the United ? Wh d C d d h U i d States need to do?
The Transforming Arctic • The Arctic is a state of massive transformation – Climate Change – Resource Development – (was up to a high Resource Development (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $108 barrel) – Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization p
The Image of Change: Accessibility The Melting Ice: Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008 p p Source: Canadian Ice Service
The Economics: The Hope of Resources Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Oil and Gas Source: AMAP
Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic boundaries in the Arctic www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic
The Changing Technologies: P Proposed Arctic LNG d A i LNG Source: Samsung Heavy Industries
New Signs of Cooperation • Public Pronouncements • Creation of Arctic Council Creation of Arctic Council • Application of UNCLOS • Norway-Russia Maritime Boundary N R i M i i B d Delimitation 2010 • Arctic Council – Search and Rescue Agreement 2010 • Public Pronouncements…..
New Signs of Competition • Russia – Renewed Assertiveness/ Petrodollars • United States – Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act – International Role as remaining Superpower • Norway – Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia • Denmark – Issues with Greenland – social; energy – Rebuilding Armed Forces Rebuilding Armed Forces • Iceland – Economic melt-down/Volcano melt-down – Developing relationship with China p g p • Finland/Sweden – Closer cooperation with NATO • Canada – Re-examining its Arctic capabilities – Renewed Assertiveness
Policy Statements • United States – National Security Presidential Directive 66 Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009) 2009) – USN Arctic Roadmap • Russia – Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015 Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007 2015 – Principles of State Policy in the Arctic to 2020 , (September, 2008)[ • Norway – The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy,”(April 2007) The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy, (April 2007) – Norwegian Defence 2008 (June 2008): • Canada – Northern Strategy (July 2009) Northern Strategy (July 2009) • Denmark – Danish Defence Agreement 2010-2014 Copenhagen (June 2009) Source: http://cmss.ucalgary.ca/foreignpolicy
New and Developing Arctic Force C Capabilities bili i • Russia – 6 - Borey SSBN; 2- Yasen SSN; 5-6 Carrier Groups; New Bomber 2020; 2 4Misteal Assault Vessels • United States United States – F-22, Virginia class; ABM • Norway – Fridtjof Nansen Frigates; F-35; Svalbard • Canada – Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels, F-35 • Denmark – Navy: Thesis; Knud Ramussen; Flyvefisken classes N Th i K d R Fl fi k l
Exercises • Russia R i – 8-9,000 troops 09; 2 Delta’s IV 09; 16 Bomber Patrols 2010; 12 naval operations 2010 Patrols 2010; 12 naval operations 2010 • United States – Northern Edge – 1993-1/; 8-10,000 troops Northern Edge 1993 1/; 8 10 000 troops • Norway – Cold Response -2006-2010; 7-9,000 troops C ld R 2006 2010 7 9 000 t – 2010 in Norway and Sweden • Canada C d – Op Nanook 2002-2011 – 750 troops • Finland/Sweden Fi l d/S d – Loyal Arrow 2009 3000 troops
Russia Renewed Russian Strengths (?) • 1990s • 1990s – Period of Reduction Period of Red ction – AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning Decommissioning • 2000s – Renewal • 6 SSBN 995 Borey • 6 SSBN 995 Borey – 1 built; 3 building • 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney • 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney Yury Dolgoruky – 1 built; 2 building • Economic Challenges E i Ch ll • Putin’s Control
Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, August 18, 2007 • If US/EU position on Northwest Passage is correct then these aircraft have the right of over-flight g g
US Arctic Interests • National Security Presidential Directive -Arctic Region Policy (January 9, 2009) • “The United States has broad and fundamental national security interests in the Arctic region and i is prepared to operate either independently or in d t t ith i i d d tl conjunction with other states to safe-guard these interests” – missile defence and early warning; – deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence maritime presence and maritime strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations; – ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight. • But will the US have political will/economic capabilities to be an Arctic Power?
US Arctic Forces • Submarine Forces: • US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class • Cooperation with UK • ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN • ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina • Missile Development Mi il D l t Missile Defence – Ft. Greely ICEX 2011 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident
Alaska Aerospace Defence • 186 F 22 to be built • 186 F-22 to be built – 36 are being deployed to Alaska • 20% of total arsenal 20% f l l • Ft. Greeley - ABM
Norway Norway Norwegian Arctic Focus • The High North is the most important priority area of the Norwegian Defence- Norwegian Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen – April 2008 • 5 New Ice-Capable Frigates – Very capable • Helicopters stationed at northern base of B d f Bardufoss • Purchase 48 F-35s November 2008
New Norwegian Maritime Forces • Fridtjof Nansen class • 5 built in Spanish Yards • 5 built in Spanish Yards • Aegis system • Coast Guard armed Svalbard - Norwegian Coast Guard Roald Amundsen
Finland/Sweden • Loyal Arrow – June 2009 • 200 aircraft; 2000 troops; 50 vessels • Finland developing closer links with NATO HMS A k R HMS Ark Royal l in Swedish waters
Swedish/Baltic Response to Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia • Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania y, , , , plus Finland, Sweden • Swedish FM - Submarines Swedish FM Submarines Mistral Mistral
China • Snow Dragon was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk arriving in Tuk -1 st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999 -2 nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003 d i l -3 rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008 •Polar Research Institute of China Polar Research Institute of China New Chinese Icebreaker
French Arctic Deployments • Annual French Arctic submarine missions • 27 th mountain infantry brigade – Arctic 27 mountain infantry brigade Arctic Operations • Airforce operations in Sweden Finland • Airforce operations in Sweden, Finland, Norway • All surface naval units must carry out Arctic All f l i A i deployment – Ministry of Defence June 22, 2010
What is Canada doing? What is Canada doing? • New Military Operations since 2002 N Mili O i i 2002 • 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels • Nanisivik Refueling Facility • Nanisivik Refueling Facility • Resolute Bay Training Facility • Increased Rangers Patrols g -Number 58 to 61 -Training and Equipment • Northern Watch • Northern Watch • Throne Speech Oct 2007 – Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security) gy ( g y y)
Canadian Actions (cont.) Canadian Actions (cont.) • Feb 2008 B dget • Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million $720 Million Icebreaker • June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy • June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) - Focus on Arctic Security Focus on Arctic Security • Northern Strategy summer 2009 - Four pillars Four pillars • Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg Nordreg
Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel General Arrangements – Upper Deck 15 15 Source: Canadian Navy B
Canadian Northern Exercises • Resumed in 2002 – Operation Narwhal • Hudson Sentinel – 2 005 Hudson Bay Hudson Sentinel 2 005 Hudson Bay • Operation Nanook – Eastern Arctic – 750 troops and OGD 750 t d OGD • Operation Nunakput –Western Arctic • Operation Nunalivut – Ranger Patrol
The Emerging Arctic Security The Emerging Arctic Security Regime • Circumpolar states have called for cooperation – What will be the new international governance g regime? • Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic – New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable – New Policies – Unilateral “concern” – New Training
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