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Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley Coordinating Lead Authors chapter Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC

  1. Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley Coordinating Lead Authors chapter «Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services» from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC Systems Ecology,Departement of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich 1

  2. Contents • Background • Projected, future impacts • Ecosystems and tipping points • Conclusions Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

  3. IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4 «Ecosystems, their proper- ties, goods, and services» • 2 CLAs: Andreas Fischlin, Guy F. Midgley • 8 LAs: Jeff Price, Rik Leemans, Brij Gopal, Carol Turley, Mark Rounsevell, Pauline Dube, Juan Tarazona, Andrei Velichko • 19 CAs with outstanding contributions from Jacqueline de Chazal and Rachel Warren • 2 REs • Hundred of expert reviewers, scientists etc. • >3200 scientific articles reviewed • 915 cited Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

  4. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 4

  5. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 5

  6. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 6

  7. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 7

  8. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 8

  9. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 9

  10. Temperate forests Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 10

  11. Ökosysteme Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 11

  12. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 12

  13. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 13

  14. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 14

  15. Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 15

  16. Contents • Background • Projected, future impacts • Ecosystems and tipping points • Conclusions Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

  17. Future Resilience of Ecosystems The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources). (high confidence) IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 17

  18. Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 18

  19. Increasing Trends in Fire Frequencies Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 19 11/Mar/2009

  20. Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae ) Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al ., 2007. IPCC WGII) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 20

  21. Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae ) Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al ., 2007. IPCC WGII) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 21

  22. Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 >0°C >0°C Fire Fire Insects Insects Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 22

  23. Ecosystems Services Provisioning Regulating Cultural Supporting Services Global GDP 1997 18 Trillions (=10 12 =Tera) US $ 16 33 54 Costanza et al ., 1997. Nature , 387: 253-260 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 23

  24. Impacts on Biodiversity 20%-30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction if ∆ T 1.5°C - 2.5°C over present (medium confidence) Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 24

  25. Burning Ember Diagram: Compiles Impacts Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 25

  26. Most corals bleached Example - Coral Reefs +2° +1.7 ° Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC, 2007. Technical Summary WGII Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 26

  27. Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached +1.2°C ~ 25% marine biodiversity Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 27

  28. Losses in South Africa ~10-80% fauna, Example - South Africa ~40-50% plants (~50-65% Fynbos) +2.1 ° +2° Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 28

  29. Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached ~ 25% marine biodiversity Biodiversity +1.6°C Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 29

  30. Example - Sea Ice Biome +3° +2.8 ° Extinction risks for polar species Major changes in polar Systems Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 30

  31. Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008 +2.3°C Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, Polar Species Biodiversity 452(7190): 987-990 Fire Fire Insects Insects Coral Reefs Bleached ~ 25% marine biodiversity Biodiversity +2.3°C Polar Species Biodiversity Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. Lenton et al., 2008. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 WGII: 211-272 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009 31

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