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Risks For Ecosystems Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley Coordinating Lead Authors chapter Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC

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Risks For Ecosystems

Key Findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC

Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley

Coordinating Lead Authors chapter «Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods, and Services» from the Assessment Report Four of the IPCC

Systems Ecology,Departement of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Contents

  • Background
  • Projected, future impacts
  • Ecosystems and tipping points
  • Conclusions
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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

  • 2 CLAs: Andreas Fischlin, Guy F. Midgley
  • 8 LAs: Jeff Price, Rik Leemans, Brij Gopal, Carol

Turley, Mark Rounsevell, Pauline Dube, Juan Tarazona, Andrei Velichko

  • 19 CAs with outstanding contributions from

Jacqueline de Chazal and Rachel Warren

  • 2 REs
  • Hundred of expert reviewers, scientists etc.
  • >3200 scientific articles reviewed
  • 915 cited

IPCC Assessment Report 4 WGII, Chapter 4

«Ecosystems, their proper- ties, goods, and services»

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Temperate forests

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Ökosysteme

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Contents

  • Background
  • Projected, future impacts
  • Ecosystems and tipping points
  • Conclusions
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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Future Resilience of Ecosystems

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects,

  • cean acidification), and other global

change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, overexploitation of resources).

(high confidence)

IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Increasing Trends in Fire Frequencies

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al.,

  • 2007. IPCC WGII)

Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle

(Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae)

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al.,

  • 2007. IPCC WGII)

Forest pests - Mountain Pine Beetle

(Dendroctonus ponderosae, Col., Scolytidae)

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

>0°C >0°C

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Ecosystems Services

Costanza et al., 1997. Nature, 387: 253-260

Trillions (=1012 =Tera) US $ 16 33 54

Global GDP 1997 18

Supporting Services Provisioning Regulating Cultural

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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(medium confidence)

20%-30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction if ∆T 1.5°C - 2.5°C

  • ver present

Impacts on Biodiversity

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Burning Ember Diagram: Compiles Impacts

Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC,

  • 2007. Technical Summary WGII
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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Example - Coral Reefs

Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC,

  • 2007. Technical Summary WGII

Most corals bleached

+1.7 °

+2°

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793 Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

+1.2°C

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Example - South Africa

Losses in South Africa ~10-80% fauna, ~40-50% plants (~50-65% Fynbos)

+2.1 °

+2°

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

+1.6°C

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Example - Sea Ice Biome

Extinction risks for polar species Major changes in polar Systems

+2.8 °

+3°

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

+2.3°C +2.3°C

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

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Observations Indicate We Erred!

IPCC SRES A1B

Sea ice melting

Stroeve et al., 2007.

  • Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:

L09501

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

+1.5°C ? +1.5°C ?

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Example - Biodiversity Hotspots

In biodiversity hotspots (e.g. coral reefs, tropical rain forests) 15-40% endemics at risk; half of nature reserves fail

+3°

+3.5 °

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

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Golden toad (Bufo periglenes)

First Evidence: Recent Climate Change => Extinctions

Golden toad and 74 other amphibian species extinct in montane cloud forests

(Pounds et al., 2006; Parmesan, 2006)

Monteverde harlequin frog (Atelopus sp.)

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity Biodiversity Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

+3°C +3°C

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Ocean pH

sour

Ocean Acidification

The progressive acidification of oceans due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to have negative impacts on marine shell-forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species.

IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

Summary

Impacts on Biodiversity

From Figure SPM.2

(IPCC, 2007c. Summary for Policy Makers by Working Group II AR4 IPCC)

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Ecosystems Services

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Sink Service by Terrestrial Ecosystems

Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change.

(high confidence*)

* Assuming continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates and other global changes including land-use changes

IPCC, 2007. SPM WGII, p.11

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

Carbon Stored in Land Ecosystems

Figure 4.1: Ecosystems addressed - C stocks, areal extent (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

4.5x

in atmosphere

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Some DGVM Results - LPJ A2 HadCM3

Figure 4.3 (a): Projected appreciable changes (>20% per spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 relative to 2000 (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

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Sink service at risk

Figure 4.2: Simulated net carbon exachange between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

> 2.5 °

+3° +2°

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reef Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity Biodiversity Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

Dieback Dieback Dieback

≥ +2°C

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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

Summary

Changes in Ecosystem Structures and Regulating Services

From Figure SPM.2

(IPCC, 2007c. Summary for Policy Makers by Working Group II AR4 IPCC)

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Insect defoliation may release large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere currently not modelled

Section 4.4.5 (Fischlin et al., 2007. IPCC WGII)

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Siberian Frozen Loess Soils (Yedoma) 1 million km2 depth up to 25m C content 2-5% ~ 500 Gt C

11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

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Schuur et al., 2008. Bioscience 58: 701-714 Zimov et al., 2006. Science 312: 1612-1613

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reef Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity Biodiversity Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

Dieback Dieback Dieback Yedoma?

+?°C

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Contents

  • Background
  • Projected, future impacts
  • Ecosystems and tipping points
  • Conclusions
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Antarctic shelf biodiversity?

Forcada et al.., 2008.

  • Glob. Chang. Biol., 14(11):

2473-2488. • Jenouvrier et al., 2009.PNAS 106(6): 1844• Massom.,

  • 2009. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 374: 243
  • St Clair et al.., 2009. PNAS, 106(6):

1691

Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Fischlin et al. 2007 and Lenton et al. 2008

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Coral Reefs Bleached

~ 25% marine biodiversity

Lenton et al., 2008. PNAS, 105(6): 1786-1793

Polar Species Biodiversity Polar Species Biodiversity

Biodiversity Biodiversity Biodiversity

Fischlin, A., Midgley, G.F. et al., 2007. IPCC AR4 WGII: 211-272

Fire Insects Fire Insects

Kurz et al.., 2008. Nature, 452(7190): 987-990

>0°C >0°C +1.2°C +1.6°C +1.5°C ? +1.5°C ? +3°C +3°C

Dieback Dieback Dieback

≥ +2°C

Yedoma?

+?°C

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Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa 11/Mar/2009

Contents

  • Background
  • Projected, future impacts
  • Ecosystems and tipping points
  • Conclusions
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11/Mar/2009 Andreas Fischlin & Guy Midgley — Coordinating Lead Authors IPCC AR4 — ETH Zurich, Switzerland & Kirstenbosch Research Center, South Africa

Ecosystemʼs resilience exceeded <=> canʼt adapt naturally!

2-3 °

Conflict with Article 2 of UNFCCC: The ultimate objective of this convention .. is .. stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level .. to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally…

Figure TS.6:Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise IPCC,

  • 2007d. Technical Summary WGII
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www.ipcc.ch www.sysecol.ethz.ch andreas.fischlin@env.ethz.ch

Thanks for your

attention!

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