RISK ASSESSMENT OF PEDESTRIAN AND CYCLIST suggest increased no. of - - PDF document

RISK ASSESSMENT OF PEDESTRIAN AND CYCLIST FALLS IN SNOWY AND ICY CONDITIONS

Falling in winter conditions – How big is the problem?

• We actually don’t know
• Official statistics in

Germany:

• High level of

• Pedestrian falls are not

• Data from insurers

suggest increased no. of falls in winter

• How good is winter

maintenance currently?

• How high is the risk of

falling on snow/ice?

• Should we spend more

money to improve?

Method

Data sources of pedestrian and cyclist falls

Multi data approach Hospital study Insurance reports Self reported falls Data source Below (2016) German Social Accident Insurance (DGUV) Own retrospective surveys (field & online) Area Catchment Areas of 23 hospitals in west-germany Germany Germany Period May 2012 – Apr 2013 Jan 2008 – Dec 2015 Last 5 years Days with snow or ice 17 % 14 % 11 % Type of data Severe single bicycle accidents Pedestrian falls on the trip to school or work All falls of pedestrians & cyclists Number of falls 1,850 537 9,943 (5,603 respondents)

Method

Exposure data: weather

Definition of days with snow or ice

• Min. daily
• temp. < 0

Exposure data: weather

Days with snow or ice in different cities Days with snow or ice over the years

Method

• n days with snow or ice

Change of bicycle volumes on days with snow or ice (automatic counters) Punkt vs. Komma

Exposure data: traffic volumes

Exposure data: traffic volumes

Trip data from the household travel survey SrV – “Mobilty in cities” at TU Dresden: Trips per day Average trip distance

Exposure data: traffic volumes

Change of traffic volume on days with snow/ice – comparison of data sources Assumptions for changes of traffic volume: Pedestrians: Cyclists: + 10 %

• 50 %

Method

• n days with snow or ice

Method

Example calculation

Results: number of falls

Risk of pedestrian and cyclist falls in snowy and icy conditions (compared to other weather)

Results: number and severity of falls

Single bicycle accidents vs. bicycle accidents involving others

Results: number and severity of falls

Single bicycle accidents vs. bicycle accidents involving others Structure of the severity of falls (own surveys)

Lessons learnt

• Pedestrian volumes fairly stable in snowy/icy conditions
• Bicycle volumes dropped by half
• Reduction in bicycle volumes could be halved through improved winter maintenance
• Risk for pedestrian and cyclist falls substantially increases in snowy/icy conditions
• Increase in risk higher for pedestrians and higher in icy conditions
• Consequences less severe compared to other weather conditions
• Reduction in severity does not compensate for increase of fall frequency

Improved winter service could lead to savings in social health costs and an increase of bicycle volumes

Thank you for your attention! Questions?