Resilient Sites for Conservation Andy Finton, The Nature - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Ecological resilience

– What is it – Why is it important – How do we map it

• Innovations:

– Resilient sites

• Landscape complexity and connectivity

– Resilient network of sites

• Physical Settings as enduring features

Resilient Sites for Conservation

Andy Finton, The Nature Conservancy, MA Harvard Kennedy School Conservation Innovation Program

May 7, 2014

Ice Storm, 2009, MA Hurricane Irene, 2011, VT Tornado, 2011, MA Parameter Current (1961-1990) Predicted Range

• f Change by 2100
• Ave. Temperature (o C)

7.8 10 to 13 Annual Precipitation (cm) 102.9 108 to 117 Sea level rise (cm) 8 21 to 201 Streamflow-spring peak flow (days) 84.5 72 to 80 Droughts lasting 1-3 months (#/30 yrs) 12.61 16 to 23 Snow Days/Month (days) 5.2 1 to 4 Length of growing season (days) 184 196 to 227 Berkshire Eagle

Resilience: The ability to recover from disturbance

Highly Resilient Sites

• Large capacity to adapt - dynamic
• Many options and alternatives
• Sustain function and diversity

Resilient Sites for Conservation

• 2012 TNC Eastern Division

– Mark Anderson: Dir. of Conservation Science – Melissa Clark: GIS Analyst

• Web site

– Reports, data

https://www.conservationgateway.org http://nature.ly/NEresilience

Landscape Complexity

• How many landforms are available

from each point (“microclimates”)

Landscape Connectivity

(Permeability)

• How connected are the lands at

each point

Factors that increase site resilience:

Buffers species from climate impact

Landscape Complexity

• Landforms control the distribution of moisture, nutrients and climatic effects
• Microclimates = More Variety = more options for species
• Mt. Mansfield
• Mt. Mansfield

Landforms Landforms

N N

Cool- Moist Hot - Dry

How many landforms in a given area

Landscape Complexity

Scores for every cell* in the region

*1,000 acre hexagon cells

Green = Above average Yellow = Average, Brown = Below average

Landscape Connectivity (Permeability)

= The degree to which the landscape allows for species movement (& other natural processes) Highly Permeable Landscapes Provide many options and alternatives Impermeable Landscapes Provide few options

Developed by Brad Compton: UMASS CAPS/Landscape Ecology

Connectivity

(Permeability)

Green = Above average Yellow = Average, Brown = Below average

Green = Above average Yellow = Average, Brown = Below average

Estimating Resilience

Sites that are resilience to climate change

Resilience = Complexity + Connectivity

Resilient Network: Conserving the Stage (Arena)

Teams/Arenas = Enduring Features

• Players are important, but change over time

Network (league) remains resilient

• Each team dynamic, with unique contribution

• Physical Settings = Geology & Elevation

– Enduring features / drivers of diversity / arenas of evolution – Species matter, but change over time

Resilient Network: Conserving the Stage (Arena)

30 Settings:

Defined by Geology & Elevation

Evaluate resilience

• ne setting at a time

Low elevation sand Mid-elevation limestone High elevation sandstone

Scores for the Entire Setting

Evaluate resilience

• ne setting at a time

Coarse Sand at Very Low Elevations

Sites that are resilient to climate change and represent the full diversity of the region

Resilience = Complexity + Connectivity

within each setting

MA “Downscaled” Resilience Scores

Resilience = Average of Landscape Complexity and Connectivity within each physical setting

Jessica Dyson, MA TNC GIS Manager

• Settings based on MA data
• Scaled to MA
• 90 meter data

Climate Change Applications

• State Agencies

– Land protection and management priorities – Grant criterion – State Wildlife Action Plans?

• Land Trusts

– Land protection and management priorities – Grant applications

“Health is the capacity of the land for self- renewal. Conservation is our effort to understand and preserve this capacity.” Aldo Leopold 1949