Research Findings July 18, 2018 Prepared for: ARIZONA COLORADO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Research Findings July 18, 2018 Prepared for: ARIZONA COLORADO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Research Findings July 18, 2018 Prepared for: ARIZONA COLORADO MONTANA NEW MEXICO NEVADA A L L S T A T E S Methodology Sample Sizes: Center for Western Priorities ALL = 2500 AZ = 500 Public Lands Voter Profiles CO = 500 Online


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ARIZONA COLORADO MONTANA NEW MEXICO NEVADA

Research Findings

July 18, 2018 Prepared for:

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S

Methodology

2

Center for Western Priorities

Public Lands Voter Profiles Online Survey Among Likely Voters

Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada

June 2018

Sample Sizes: ALL = 2500 AZ = 500 CO = 500 MT = 500 NM = 500 NV = 500 MOE = +/- 2% for ALL MOE = +/- 4.4% per state

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities I N T R O D U C T I O N

Winning the West 2018

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On today’s political map the West is home to some key battleground states — including Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada and New Mexico. Western states include many of our nation’s most prized public lands, enabling people from all over the country to explore, challenge themselves and enjoy the outdoors with family and friends. In 2016, our Winning the West polling showed that Western voters expect a balanced approach to managing conservation, recreation and responsible energy development. The results from 2018 show the same voter commitment to balance. For 2018, we took a new approach to slicing the data. In addition to our traditional reporting of the results by regional and partisan demographic breaks (included in the first half of the deck), we wanted to introduce you to some different segments of the Western

  • electorate. In the second half of this deck, you can explore data for these key “outdoor voting bloc” profiles. Collectively, they reinforce

the finding that public lands are important to the West across demographic lines — political, regional and more. Politicians interested in winning the West should take note that these voters are paying close attention to their positions on public lands issues.

The profiles include:

The Ticket Splitter The Millennial Parent & The Empty Nester The Angler and Hunter & The Casual Outdoor Recreation Enthusiast (CORE) The Cable News Watcher & The Social Media User

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

Most Western voters see the country as headed off on the wrong track

While three-quarters of GOP voters think things are headed in the right direction.

4

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Right Direction 42 41 46 46 23 46 38 39 48 Wrong Track 47 49 43 38 65 42 53 48 40 Don’t Know 12 11 11 16 12 12 9 13 12

Do you think things in [INSERT STATE] are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Right Direction 37 42 32 38 30 42 8 31 75 Wrong Track 59 55 63 54 66 55 90 64 20 Don’t Know 5 4 5 8 4 4 2 6 5

And do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

47 12 42

Wrong Direction Right Direction Don’t Know All

59 5 37

All Wrong Direction Right Direction Don’t Know

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

Mountains and the outdoors are top reasons voters like living in the West

5

In one or two sentences what do you like most about living in the West?

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

Healthcare, immigration and jobs are the top issues for 2018

6

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV Health care 43 42 45 39 39 44 Immigration 22 26 20 15 19 25 Jobs and the economy 22 21 19 27 24 26 National security 20 22 19 19 18 22 Education 19 19 18 18 23 22 Environment and climate 16 17 17 17 22 10 Government spending 16 16 16 20 17 14

Of the following list of issues, which one is most important to you [PICK TOP 2 CHOICES] [RANDOMIZE]

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 38 33 41 49 41 33 52 37 24 44 46 44 38 41 44 40 45 46 14 17 11 10 14 17 6 15 21 4 3 4 2 3 7 1 3 7 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Very important Somewhat important Not very important Not important at all A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

Public lands are important to Western voters no matter how you slice it

7

And thinking about the 2018 elections, how important are public lands, parks and wildlife issues to you in deciding which candidate to vote for?

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

A majority of voters in the West disapprove of the administration’s job on public lands issues

GOP voters approve with more than a quarter remaining undecided.

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And thinking about issues related to public lands, parks and wildlife in the West, do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump and his administration is doing on public lands issues?

27 29 23 30 24 30 4 22 57 56 51 61 49 63 52 88 61 15 18 21 16 21 13 18 9 17 28 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Approve Disapprove Don't Know

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Ad Admi ministr trati tion Proposals

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Drilling close to parks and reducing conservation efforts to increase public land available for oil and gas development are unpopular

GOP voters are split on increasing drilling at the expense of conservation.

10

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 28 32 24 28 26 30 8 23 47 Oppose 67 63 71 66 70 65 89 73 46 Don’t Know 5 5 5 7 4 5 8 23 47

Increasing public land available for oil and gas development by reducing conservation efforts on behalf of potentially endangered wildlife, like the sage-grouse

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 25 30 21 23 24 27 8 23 47 Oppose 70 65 74 71 72 69 90 73 46 Don’t Know 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 5 7

Opening public lands close to national parks and monuments for oil and gas drilling

70 5 25

Support Oppose Don’t Know

67 5 28

Support Don’t Know Oppose

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Reducing the size of national monuments is unpopular among Western voters

Voters across the political spectrum oppose reductions.

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ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 18 19 16 21 19 22 5 16 34 Oppose 74 71 77 71 76 70 90 76 53 Don’t Know 8 10 8 8 5 8 5 7 13

Significantly reducing the size of national monuments, including shrinking Utah’s Bears Ears by more than 80 percent and Grand Staircase-Escalante by 50 percent

74 8 18

Support Oppose Don’t Know

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Rolling back regulations on oil and gas development is unpopular in all 5 states

Independent voters oppose rolling back regulations on oil and gas development.

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ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Support 29 31 27 31 27 33 10 26 53 Oppose 64 62 67 63 69 60 84 69 36 Don’t Know 7 8 7 7 5 7 6 5 11

Rolling back environmental regulations on oil and gas development

64 7 29

Support Oppose Don’t Know

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

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A R I Z O N A O N L Y — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Arizona voters oppose removing restrictions on uranium mining near the Grand Canyon by a 2 to 1 margin

Remove restrictions on uranium mining on public land near the Grand Canyon

9% 28% 49% 84% 65% 41% 7% 7% 11% Support Oppose Don't Know 29 63 8

AZ

GOP voters divided on removing these restrictions.

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — I N T R O D U C T I O N A N D I S S U E S

Secretary Zinke’s approval rating is upside down in all 5 of the Western states polled, including Montana

Almost two-thirds of Democrats have an unfavorable impression of him, while a plurality of GOP voters have a favorable impression of the Secretary.

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Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke?

25 25 23 36 21 27 8 21 47 42 38 43 49 49 42 63 46 16 33 37 34 15 31 31 28 33 37 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know / Not Aware

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Mo Motivation

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — M O T I V A T I O N

Most voters agree that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their values on public lands issues and are motivated to vote when public lands are threatened

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I will only vote for a candidate who shares my values on protecting public lands

51 48 53 54 55 48 64 49 40 40 42 39 38 39 43 31 41 48 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree

I’m motivated to get out and vote when public lands are threatened

28 27 27 38 32 25 70 65 75 75 70 66 83 71 55 23 26 19 19 24 27 14 21 35 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Strongly Agree TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — M O T I V A T I O N

Cutting red tape is popular across parties; energy development is less likely to motivate Western voters

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I’m motivated to get out and vote to reduce red tape and government overreach on federal lands I’m motivated to get and vote for more energy development in the West

60 60 59 62 55 64 48 60 72 32 31 32 29 37 29 45 32 18 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree 44 45 41 37 43 52 35 38 62 47 45 49 53 50 41 58 52 28 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 68 65 70 72 68 66 73 66 65 25 28 23 21 25 27 22 27 26 All AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP TOTAL Agree TOTAL Disagree A L L S T A T E S — M O T I V A T I O N

Candidates who come the closest to the views of Western voters on public lands issues have a good shot at gaining their support

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I tend to vote for candidates who align the closest to my point of view on public lands, even though their positions may not be perfect

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Ca Candidate De Descri ripti tions

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Candidates should consider supporting more access to public lands

Independents are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports access to public lands.

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A Democrat who will fight for access to public lands for hunting, fishing, and other outdoor recreation A Republican who will fight for access to public lands for hunting, fishing, and other outdoor recreation

Thinking about the 2018 elections, for each of the following candidate descriptions, please tell me how likely you are to vote for a candidate like this, very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely? (RANDOMIZE)

Likely Vote Unlikely Vote DEM 63 31 IND 52 38 GOP 30 60 49 44 52 63 53 42

  • 42
  • 46
  • 38
  • 31
  • 40
  • 49

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV Likely Vote Unlikely Vote DEM 26 69 IND 52 38 GOP 78 13 52 51 49 68 51 51

  • 40
  • 39
  • 43
  • 25
  • 43
  • 40

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Candidates who support conservation are winners in the eyes of Western voters

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A Democrat who says conservation is key to the success of economy in the West A Republican who says conservation is key to the success of the economy in the West

Likely Vote Unlikely Vote DEM 88 8 IND 61 28 GOP 25 64 59 57 61 57 63 54

  • 32
  • 33
  • 31
  • 34
  • 29
  • 37

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV Likely Vote Unlikely Vote DEM 43 50 IND 62 27 GOP 68 22 58 58 58 64 55 55

  • 33
  • 31
  • 34
  • 27
  • 37
  • 34

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

A Republican who prioritizes energy development over conservation on public lands

27 31 23 29 25 30

  • 64
  • 61
  • 68
  • 63
  • 66
  • 61

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 47 46 41 40 40 43 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Very Unlikely Vote DEM 8 87 73 IND 22 69 43 GOP 55 34 12 A L L S T A T E S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Regardless of party affiliation, voters reject candidates who prioritize energy development over conservation on public lands

22

A Democrat who prioritizes energy development over conservation on public lands

21 21 21 16 22 21

  • 70
  • 71
  • 69
  • 77
  • 70
  • 70

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 42 43 46 43 40 42 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Very Unlikely Vote DEM 28 65 41 IND 18 72 40 GOP 16 73 47

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

A Republican who says there are too many public lands and wants to reduce regulations and land conservation

Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Very Unlikely Vote DEM 5 90 78 IND 18 74 55 GOP 41 48 20 21 25 15 21 19 24

  • 71
  • 66
  • 76
  • 72
  • 74
  • 68

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 56 56 54 46 49 52 A L L S T A T E S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Extreme positions on public lands are unpopular across the West

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A Democrat who says natural resources like oil and gas should be kept in the ground and not developed

Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Very Unlikely Vote DEM 61 29 7 IND 29 59 29 GOP 8 83 67 33 30 34 33 39 32

  • 56
  • 59
  • 55
  • 58
  • 53
  • 57

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 32 31 35 35 35 33

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En Energy and Min inin ing

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — E N E R G Y A N D M I N I N G

Renewable energy sources are popular among voters

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Invest in the development of renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and geothermal Increase oil and gas drilling on public lands to access America’s vast energy resources

Strongly Support TOTAL Support TOTAL Oppose DEM 72 90 7 IND 55 88 8 GOP 36 75 18 TOTAL Support TOTAL Oppose Strongly Oppose DEM 19 75 55 IND 34 59 37 GOP 63 27 11 38 45 32 37 34 41

  • 55
  • 47
  • 60
  • 57
  • 60
  • 52

All AZ CO MT NM NV 37 39 37 32 32 35 84 86 84 85 85 82

  • 11
  • 9
  • 12
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12

All AZ CO MT NM NV 54 60 55 54 51 54

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — E N E R G Y A N D M I N I N G

Western voters support royalties for oil, gas, and mineral extraction

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Require mining companies to pay taxpayers a royalty for extracting minerals on public lands Increase the royalties that companies pay to taxpayers for extracting oil, gas, and coal on public lands

Strongly Support TOTAL Support TOTAL Oppose DEM 46 79 11 IND 39 77 12 GOP 30 69 18 Strongly Support TOTAL Support TOTAL Oppose DEM 40 70 19 IND 32 72 17 GOP 27 67 20 70 67 71 73 72 70

  • 18
  • 19
  • 18
  • 16
  • 18
  • 17

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 33 38 37 28 37 33 76 72 77 81 79 77

  • 14
  • 16
  • 12
  • 10
  • 12
  • 15

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV 40 42 43 35 38 38

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — E N E R G Y A N D M I N I N G

Voters across party lines strongly support requiring natural gas companies to detect and repair leaks

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63 61 64 67 67 61 65 64 60 89 88 89 92 89 88 87 90 88 6 5 6 4 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Strongly Support Total Support Total Oppose Strongly Oppose

Require oil and gas companies operating on public lands to detect and repair natural gas leaks in drilling equipment.

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — E N E R G Y A N D M I N I N G

Voters want to prioritize solar and wind power in the West

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ALL AZ CO MT NM NV Solar 69 75 64 58 73 69 Wind 53 49 57 56 61 47 Natural Gas 22 21 23 20 19 24 Oil 10 9 12 11 11 9 Nuclear 8 7 7 6 7 11 Geothermal 8 6 9 10 7 10 Hydropower 7 7 6 15 6 7 Coal 3 2 3 9 2 2

What energy source or sources should we prioritize in the American West over the next ten years?

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We Western Economy

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — W E S T E R N E C O N O M Y

Voters say the best use of public lands is to increase solar, wind, geothermal power to help the economy in the West

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Best — SHOWING FIRST CHOICE ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP

Increasing solar, wind, geothermal

36 41 28 23 42 41 45 35 26

Protecting wildlife habitat

13 14 14 15 11 11 19 12 9

Rural economic development

10 10 9 11 13 8 7 10 13

Expanding oil and gas development

9 8 10 10 11 8 2 7 20

Promoting the outdoors to businesses

9 8 11 10 8 5 7 11 7

Promoting outdoor recreation

8 5 12 16 5 4 7 9 8

Increasing land for ranching / grazing

3 3 2 4 3 3 2 3 3

Diversify the Nevada economy

– – – – – 11 2 1 2

Which ONE of the following is the best use of [INSERT STATE’s] public lands to help the state’s economy? Which is the second best?

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities A L L S T A T E S — W E S T E R N E C O N O M Y

Public lands and the outdoor recreation economy are very important to the economy and job creation in the West

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When you think about the economic future of [INSERT STATE] and the Western US, how important do you think the

  • utdoor recreation economy will be?

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Very important 41 33 52 58 33 32 46 43 33 Somewhat important 40 44 35 33 42 43 40 37 43 A little important 14 17 9 6 17 18 11 14 16 Not important at all 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 3

Thinking about the economic future of [STATE] how important is the presence of public lands and our lifestyle of

  • utdoor recreation in attracting good jobs and innovative

companies to the West?

ALL AZ CO MT NM NV DEM IND GOP Very important 41 35 49 54 35 33 49 41 33 Somewhat important 39 42 37 33 43 40 38 39 42 A little important 14 15 10 10 15 19 9 14 18 Not important at all 2 3 1 1 3 4 1 2 3

80 14 2 81 14 2

A little important Somewhat / Very important Not important at all A little important Somewhat / Very important Not important at all All All

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Vo Voter Profiles Me Meet your Western voters

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

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The Ticket Splitter, a focus of the 2016 Winning the West campaign, remains an important component to the Western electorate. They comprise about a quarter to a third of the electorate in the five states where we polled. If you want to win the West, you can’t ignore the importance of ticket splitters. Ticket splitters enjoy the outdoors and support the protection of public lands. If you win the ticket splitting vote, chances are good that you will win the election.

We’ve singled out these seven important voting groups. These groups are less partisan and less ideological than traditional partisan or political breaks like Republican or Democratic voters. These seven key groups are all persuadable, in one way or another, meaning a politician would be smart to listen to these groups when trying to build a winning coalition in the West.

I N T R O D U C T I O N — D E S C R I P T I O N S

Meet Your Western Voters

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

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The Millennial Parent represents the future of the West in multiple ways. They are young adults ages 22–36, and many are in their first stages of their careers while building a life for their families. As they get older, their positions on Western issues will continue to influence the Western political landscape. While these millennials are finding their own way, they are also raising the next generation of Western voters, making them an important influencer for their children, and the communities in which they live. While they only make up about 6% of our voter sample, the Pew Research Center reports that this generation is 29% of the US population and more than a million millennials are becoming moms each year in the US. They care about public lands and the future for their children. The Empty Nester in our survey is a Baby Boomer without children living in the home, ages 53 to 71. This group of voters may be retired or thinking about retirement. As we know, the West has become a very popular retirement destination. This voting group comprises about half of our sample and will continue to be important for years to come. Public lands are important to their way of life in the West.

I N T R O D U C T I O N — D E S C R I P T I O N S

Meet Your Western Voters

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities I N T R O D U C T I O N — D E S C R I P T I O N S

Meet Your Western Voters

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The Angler and Hunter cares deeply about the West and Western

  • issues. This group is more conservative and more Republican than the
  • ther groups. They narrowly supported President Trump in 2016. They

care about access to public lands and conservation. Without conservation there wouldn’t be anything left to hunt or fish. The Casual Outdoor Recreation Enthusiast (CORE), makes up about two-thirds of the Western electorate. If you like to take nature walks, hike, camp or bird watch, you are a CORE voter too. This group is important because they actively participate in outdoor activities that any of us can do. They are passionate about the outdoors and public lands too.

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities

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The Cable News Watcher is defined as those voters who get their news primarily from any of the major cable news outlets. They make up more than half of the electorate in our survey. They are an important audience as they are easily reached through ads on the very networks they watch to stay informed. The Social Media User is anyone who uses the major social media platforms on a regular basis; most of them are Facebook users. Social media has changed the way voters inform themselves about important issues. Social media has changed the way that campaigns engage with voters. These social media voters make up almost three- quarters of the Western electorate.

I N T R O D U C T I O N — D E S C R I P T I O N S

Meet Your Western Voters

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S

Where they live

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ALL Arizona Colorado Montana New Mexico Nevada Ticket Splitter 28 32 25 29 25 26 Millennial Parent 6 6 6 14 5 4 Empty Nester 52 54 51 38 50 59 Angler / Hunter 23 16 26 49 22 18 Casual Outdoor Recreation Enthusiast (CORE) 73 68 77 85 73 65 Cable News Watcher 56 63 50 47 54 60 Social Media User 72 76 70 85 66 72

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — I N T R O D U C T I O N

Most of our voter profiles are more balanced on partisanship than the Western electorate overall

38

51 50 45 51 41 52 47 52 6 11 14 4 8 7 5 6 43 38 42 46 51 41 48 42 ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User

Republican candidate Democratic candidate Third-party candidate

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — I N T R O D U C T I O N

Western voters say: Public lands, parks and wildlife issues are very important in deciding which candidate to vote for in November

And thinking about the 2018 elections, how important are public lands, parks and wildlife issues to you in deciding which candidate to vote for?

39

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Very Important 38 33 42 38 46 44 39 40 TOTAL Important 81 80 86 81 87 87 81 83 TOTAL Not Important 18 20 12 19 13 13 19 16

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — I N T R O D U C T I O N

President Trump’s job approval rating remains low

  • n public lands issues

40

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Trump Job Approval Approve 39 34 39 41 50 37 46 38 Disapprove 56 57 53 55 45 58 51 57 Don’t Know 5 9 8 4 6 5 4 5 Trump Job Approval

  • n Public Lands

Issues Approve 27 20 28 26 34 26 33 26 Disapprove 56 59 54 55 49 59 50 57 Don’t Know 18 21 18 19 17 15 17 17

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Voters oppose increasing public land available for oil and gas development by reducing conservation efforts on behalf of potentially endangered wildlife, like the sage-grouse

41

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User TOTAL Support 28 21 30 25 33 26 34 27 TOTAL Oppose 67 75 61 67 64 70 62 68 Strongly Oppose 50 48 40 49 44 53 44 51

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

The proposal to open public lands close to national parks and monuments for oil and gas drilling is opposed across the board by key voting groups

42

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User TOTAL Support 25 20 27 24 29 24 31 23 TOTAL Oppose 70 75 63 69 68 73 66 72 Strongly Oppose 51 48 42 50 46 55 46 52

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Significantly reducing the size of national monuments, including shrinking Utah’s Bears Ears by more than 80 percent and Grand Staircase-Escalante by 50 percent is very unpopular with key Western voters

43

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User TOTAL Support 18 14 25 18 22 18 22 17 TOTAL Oppose 74 80 66 74 72 76 70 75 Strongly Oppose 55 55 51 59 51 58 50 56

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — A D M I N I S T R A T I O N P R O P O S A L S

Western voters oppose rolling back environmental regulations on oil and gas development, including rules designed to reduce natural gas leaks from drilling on public lands

44

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User TOTAL Support 29 25 38 30 37 28 36 29 TOTAL Oppose 64 70 52 62 58 67 58 65 Strongly Oppose 48 46 37 47 40 52 43 48

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Anglers and hunters care about access more than partisanship

Democrat who will fight for access to public lands Republican who will fight for access to public lands

45

42 9 49 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Don’t Know All 37 6 57 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Don’t Know Angler / Hunter 40 9 52 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Don’t Know All 28 6 66 Likely Vote Unlikely Vote Don’t Know Angler / Hunter

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Conservation is key to winning the West

46

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Democrat who says conservation is key to the West's economy Likely Vote 59 63 63 58 54 63 55 60 Unlikely Vote 32 26 24 34 40 30 39 31 Don’t Know 9 11 13 9 6 7 7 9 Republican who says conservation is key to the West's economy Likely Vote 58 64 56 58 62 60 57 58 Unlikely Vote 33 24 33 33 30 32 36 32 Don’t Know 10 11 12 10 8 8 7 10

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Voters prioritize conservation over energy development

47

ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Democrat who prioritizes energy development over conservation Likely Vote 21 20 37 17 23 20 24 22 Unlikely Vote 70 69 49 75 69 73 68 69 Don’t Know 9 10 14 8 9 8 8 9 Republican who prioritizes energy development over conservation Likely Vote 27 23 32 26 31 25 34 26 Unlikely Vote 64 68 56 66 62 68 59 65 Don’t Know 9 9 12 8 7 7 8 9

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — C A N D I D A T E D E S C R I P T I O N S

Extreme positions are rejected by key voting groups

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ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Democrat who says energy resources should not be developed Likely Vote 33 26 45 28 32 36 34 36 Unlikely Vote 56 60 38 61 61 55 58 53 Don’t Know 11 14 17 10 8 10 8 11 Republican who says there are too many public lands Likely Vote 21 15 25 20 22 19 26 19 Unlikely Vote 71 76 61 74 71 75 67 72 Don’t Know 8 9 15 6 7 6 8 9

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SLIDE 49

Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — M O T I V A T I O N

Public lands are an important part of what motivates these key groups to vote

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ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User I am motivated to vote when public lands are threatened Agree 70 72 72 69 76 75 70 71 Disagree 23 21 18 24 21 20 24 22 I will vote for candidate who most agrees with me on public lands Agree 68 67 60 68 75 71 68 69 Disagree 25 26 30 25 21 24 26 24

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Prepared for Center for Western Priorities 41 39 47 39 46 45 40 43 39 40 37 40 42 41 40 40 14 16 9 15 9 10 14 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Very Important Somewhat Important A Little Important Not Important at All M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — W E S T E R N E C O N O M Y

Voters say: Public lands and our lifestyle of outdoor recreation is very important in attracting good jobs and innovative companies to the West

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Thinking about the economic future of [STATE] how important is the presence of public lands and our lifestyle of outdoor recreation in attracting good jobs and innovative companies to the West?

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SLIDE 51

Prepared for Center for Western Priorities M E E T Y O U R W E S T E R N V O T E R S — E C O N O M Y

Importance of the outdoor recreation economy

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41 40 47 39 50 46 40 44 40 40 37 40 38 40 42 39 14 16 8 15 9 11 14 12 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 ALL Ticket Splitter Millennial Parent Empty Nester Angler / Hunter CORE Cable News Watcher Social Media User Very Important Somewhat Important A Little Important Not Important at All

When you think about the economic future of [INSERT STATE] and the Western U.S., how important do you think the outdoor recreation economy will be?

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Brian Gottlieb

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