SLIDE 1
RES - causa di maggior flessibilità
- possibile soluzione?
Simone Biondi
18 Ottobre 2018 Un Ponte fra Università ed Aziende 2018
Beyond just the EU
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RES - causa di maggior flessibilit o possibile soluzione? Simone - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
RES - causa di maggior flessibilit o possibile soluzione? Simone - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
RES - causa di maggior flessibilit o possibile soluzione? Simone Biondi 18 Ottobre 2018 Un Ponte fra Universit ed Aziende 2018 Beyond just the EU 2 Resource Adequacy: General Methodology Storage Network Infrastructure Available
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Network Infrastructure Available Generation Deterministic Forecast:
- ENTSOs’ Scenarios
- Planned Outages
Stochastic Uncertainty:
- Wind generation
- Solar generation
- Forced outages
Demand Deterministic Forecast:
- ENTSOs’ Scenarios
Stochastic Uncertainty:
- Temperature
Resource Adequacy: General Methodology
Storage
3
SLIDE 4
Different risks addressed with different timeframes
Mid term Investment decisions Policy decisions Operational decisions
Several months Several years 1 week
REAL TIME
Long term
>10 years
Short term
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
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SLIDE 5
5
Definizione di flessibilità e (primitivi?) tentativi di quantificazione
SLIDE 6
Probabilistic assessment of the residual load
𝑆𝑀 = 𝑀 − 𝑋 − 𝑇
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility
- 10
10 20 30 40 50 60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171
GW
PV Wind Residual Load Ramp Demand Residual
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SLIDE 7
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility
7
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE CZ GR ITcs PT FI ITcn HU CH RO IE BG RS ITs DKw SK SE4 ITsic HR DKe SI NOm AL NI SE2 LT BA NOn LV EE MK ITsar CY SE1 LUg ME LUf IS MT LUb DKkf DEkf
99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramps (GW)
10.3 9.3 8.4 7.2 5.6 5.4 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
- 9.9
- 5.9
- 8.6
- 5.0
- 4.7
- 3.6
- 3.0
- 1.5
- 1.8
- 1.3
- 1.1
- 1.5
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE
99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramps (GW)
AT DE ES FR GB ITn NL PL TR
2 4 6 8 10 12 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
99th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramp (GW) Installed Capacity of Wind and Solar Generation (GW)
SLIDE 8
Energy Transition: the flexibility challenge is real
8
50% generation capacity from variable RES by 2030 350 GW wind and PV to be connected by 2030 20% Higher installed variable RES capacity compared to peak demand 14 Countries with wind and solar outputs likely higher than 80% 20% Reduction of dispatchable capacity margin over peak load
SLIDE 9
9
Quali strumenti per fronteggiare crescente flessibilità?
SLIDE 10
Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions
Clean Energy Package: “Where the European resource adequacy assessment identifies a resource adequacy concern Member States shall identify any regulatory distortions that caused or contributed to the emergence of the concern”
Strong Pan-European and technological interdependencies Need to coordinate and align activities
Flexibility
Generation Capacity Inter- connection Demand- Side Response Energy Efficiency Storage
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Benefit from spatial aggregation
11
Intuitively speaking, two countries do not face the most critical ramp at the exact same time due to:
- habitual differences between countries
(e.g. different working time schedule, different mealtimes among countries, etc.)
- climatic conditions & spatial
dependencies
- time zone differences
Spatial (Pearson’s) correlations calculated from German onshore region 34_DE using the simulated wind generation data from the 2050 scenario
Flexibility
Generation Capacity Inter- connection Demand- Side Response Energy Efficiency Storage
SLIDE 12
Benefit from spatial aggregation
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16.7 GW 21.4 GW 53.9 GW +0.8 GW +2.1 GW +22.2 GW
DE DE DE TR GB FR FR FR ES
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
DE+FR Aggregated PLEF Aggregated ENTSO-E Aggregated
99.9th Percentile Hourly Ramps [GW]
The aggregation has a balancing effect on the residual load. While in one country the residual load goes up, in another is possibly goes down and thus the region can be balanced via transmission
- f energy
5% 10% 41%
Flexibility
Generation Capacity Inter- connection Demand- Side Response Energy Efficiency Storage
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Insieme ai rinforzi di rete, cos’altro serve?
SLIDE 14
✓ Develop Policy Regions to promote progress and speed
Clean Energy Package
EC proposals address the various issues 2022-2030
▪ Active customer ▪ Scarcity pricing ▪ Removal of price caps ▪ Easier supplier switching ▪ Risk preparedness framework ▪ European resource adequacy ▪ Regional Developments
SLIDE 15
New multi-sided orchestration platforms
The customer rapidly promoted at the crossroad of systems
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Power generation & trading
Power transmission Power distribution Energy services (retail) Electric devices End-use customer
Distributed resources (generation, storage, electric vehicles)
Power generation & trading
Power transmission Power distribution Energy services (retail) Electric devices End-use customer Data hubs
Information & services platform
- wner
Information services Information devices & appliances
Information flow Power flow TRADITIONAL ELECTRICITY VALUE CHAIN EMERGING ELECTRICITY VALUE CHAIN
New market Orchestration role
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A digital grid, is a key enabler to bring flexibility providers and flexibility users together
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Residential DSR SME & Buildings Industrial
Technical and economical features
SLIDE 17