reall Stakeholder*group*meeting 14*April*2016 2 - - PDF document

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Addressing*the*Challenges*of*Housing* Finance*in*Africa

Kecia*Rust

reall

Stakeholder*group*meeting 14*April*2016

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Housing*in*Malawi*(Integrated*

Household*Panel*Survey*2013):

• 41%*households*live*in*traditional*

dwellings

• 26%*in*semiBpermanent*housing
• 33%*in*permanent*dwellings*

(51%*in*urban*areas)

• 46%*of*urban*households*rent
• Most*housing*built*by*owners,*

paid*for*in*cash*and*with*savings The*macroIeconomic* context*is*not*favourable

• High*interest*rates:*32%
• High*inflation:*23.4%
• Few*developers
• Limited*infrastructure
• No*national*ID*system
• Very*low*lending*to*real*

estate*activities:*1.1%*of* GDP*in*2014

• 16.1%*of*Malawians*have*

a*bank*account Housing*pressures*are*increasing

• Almost*half*of*the*population*is*under*14
• Very*rural,*with*a*high*urbanisation rate:*

3.8%

• Moderate*unemployment:*7.6%
• Very*low*affordability:*61.64%*live*on*

less*than*$1,25/day

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The*Housing*Finance*in*Africa*2015*Yearbook* can*be*downloaded*from* http://www.housingfinanceafrica.org/documen t/2015IhousingIfinanceIinIafricaIyearbook/

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Most*countries*offer*mortgages*at*rates*above*10%,*and*for*less*than*20* years,*highlighting*very*real*macroBeconomic*issues*that*challenge*housing* affordability.**In*Malawi,*one*might*as*well*buy*a*house*with*a*credit*card.

0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00

Malawi Uganda Sierra3Leone Nigeria Gambia Mozambique Comoros Tanzania Zambia South3Sudan DRC Rwanda Kenya Burundi Cote3d'3Ivoire Central3 African3… Angola Cameroon Benin Burkina3Faso Seychelles Zimbabwe Eritrea Madagascar Ethiopia Guinea3Bissau Senegal Mali Namibia Lesotho South3Africa Djibouti Libya Togo Chad Mauritius Niger3 Somalia Tunisia Liberia Ghana Algeria Morocco Egypt Mortgage3interest3 rate3(%)3and3term3(years)

Prevailing3mortgage3interest3rates,3and3term

Mortgage3Interest3Rate3(%)3 Mortgage3Term3(years)#

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African*mortgage*markets*are*tiny*(and*data*is*limited). Lower*interest*rates*seem*to*correlate*with*larger*mortgage*markets.

28 22,54 22,15 18,21 15 12,99 9,25 6,59 3,85 3,64 3,53 3,31 2,83 1,29 1,16 1 1 0,9 0,58 0,5 0,5 0,49 0,46 0,34 0,25 0,14 0,07 0,07 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 5 10 15 20 25 30

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Mortgage3to3GDP3vs3prevailing3mortgage3interest3rate3and3term

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The*Middle*Class* Growth*Story The*FDI*Story

Global* Insights* from*the*Financial* Times

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DeveloperBbuilt*housing*targets*the*higher*end,*and*happens*rarely*at*scale.**But*even* a*$20*000*house*is*unaffordable*for*the*majority*– and*these*are*only*available*in* limited*projects.*Most*housing*is*built*by*the*owner,*incrementally,*stepBbyBstep.**

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50 100 150 200 250 $& $20 000' $40 000' $60 000' $80 000' $100 000' $120 000' $140 000' $160 000' $180 000' $200 000' Angola Seychelles Madagascar Comoros Somalia Eritrea Zambia Gambia Libya DRC Ethiopia Rwanda South'Sudan Algeria Mauritius Djibouti Sierra'Leone South'Africa Tunisia Burundi Ghana Senegal Tanzania Central'African' … Namibia Zimbabwe Kenya Cote'd''Ivoire Nigeria Benin Liberia Lesotho Morocco Malawi Uganda Niger' Burkina'Faso Egypt Togo Mali Guinea'Bissau Botswana Cameroon Mozambique

Size'of'that'house'(m2) Price'of'the'cheapest,'newly'built' house'by'a'formal'developer

Price'of'the'cheapest,'newly'built'house'by'a'formal'developer

Price'of'the'cheapest,'newly'built'house'by'a'formal'developer'in'2015'(US$) Price'of'the'cheapest'newly'built'house,'by'a'formal'developer'in'2014'(US$) Price'of'the'cheapest'newly'built'house,'by'a'formal'developer'in'2013'(US$) Price'of'the'cheapest'newly'built'house,'by'a'formal'developer'in'2012'(US$) Price'of'the'cheapest'newly'built'house,'by'a'formal'developer'in'2011'(US$)' What'is'the'size'of'this'house'(in'm2)'in'2015?

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$" $5 000% $10 000% $15 000% $20 000% $25 000% $30 000% $35 000% $40 000% $" $5 000% $10 000% $15 000% $20 000% $25 000% $30 000% $35 000% $40 000% Mauritius Seychelles Botswana Swaziland Tunisia Namibia Gabon South%Africa Angola Algeria Morocco Djibouti Cape%Verde Nigeria Cote%d'Ivoire Zimbabwe Equatorial%Guinea Egypt Libya Senegal Lesotho Sudan Sao%Tome%and%Principe Mauritania Zambia Cameroon Comoros Ghana Kenya Sierra%Leone Togo Gambia Benin Uganda Guinea"Bissau Burkina%Faso Mozambique Mali DRC South%Sudan Liberia Rwanda Tanzania Burundi Guinea Malawi Niger Chad Ethiopia Somalia Central%African%Republic Madagascar Eritrea

Average%annual%household% income%versus%housing%affordability

Average,% annual%HH%Income%(urban,%2014) Average,% annual%HH%Income%(rural,%2014) Average% Annual%Income%required%to%afford%the%cheapest%newly%built%house%built%by%a%private%developer%(2015) $65 925 $200%000 $78%567

The*gap*between*what*“affordable”*housing*would*cost*to*finance,*and*what* the*average*household*can*afford*to*pay,*is*simply*too*large.**In*most* countries,*even*$25*000*is*too*much*for*the*average*incomeBearner.

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Some*governments*are*championing*the*potential*of*“Megacities”*in*an* attempt*to*get*scale*to*resolve*the*affordability*challenge.**This*is*not*yet* working*– most*housing*in*these*new*cities*are*for*higher*income*earners.

In*2015,*the*cheapest*house*being*built*by*a*private*developer*in*Angola*was*US$200*000.**At* current*lending*rates,*only*2,2%*of*the*urban*population*can*afford*this.*Average*household* income*in*urban*areas*is*only*9%*of*what*is*needed*to*afford*this*house.**

GaOQ2C-GIDD (CanbackGlobal Income Distribution Database www.cgidd.com). Data accessed in August 2015

Angola

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There*is*a*disconnect*between*the*price*of*formal,*developerBbuilt*housing*and*the* affordability*of*the*population.*The*vast*majority*of*the*population*across*the*continent* live*in*houses*they*built*themselves,*with*various*degrees*of*success*and*quality.*Can* developers*&*investors*shift*their*emphasis*to*meet*the*needs*of*the*majority? The*cheapest*newly*built*house*built*by*a*private*developer*in*Kenya,*2015,*was*US$17*000.**Even* this*is*only*affordable*to*about*10%*of*the*urban*population.**The*income*required*to*buy*this*house* is*double*the*average*annual*household*income*in*urban*areas.

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 500 1000 <$800 $800)$1*600 $1*600)$2*400 $2*400)$3*600 $3*600)$5*000 $5*000)$8*000 $8*000)$14*000 $14*000)$25*000 $25*000)$50*000 >*$50*000 Thousands Average*Annual*HH income,* urban* 2014 Average*income*needed*for*the*cheapest*newly*built* house*by*a*formal*developer,* 2015 $*4*140 $*8*821

Rural Urban.

GaOQ2C-GIDD (CanbackGlobal Income Distribution Database www.cgidd.com). Data accessed in August 2015

10%

Kenya

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2500 2000 1500 1000 500 500 <$800 $800($1)600 $1)600($2)400 $2)400($3)600 $3)600($5)000 $5)000($8)000 $8)000($14)000 $14)000($25)000 $25)000($50)000 >)$50)000 Thousands

Urban Rural

$)2)103 $)14)666 Average)HH income,) 2014 Average)income)needed)for)the)cheapest)newly)built) house)by)a)formal)developer,) 2015)

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In*2015,*the*cheapest*house*being*built*by*a*private*developer*in*Malawi*was* US$14*100.**At*current*lending*rates*(32%*over*15*years)*,*only*1,1%*of* the*urban*population*can*afford*this.*Average*household*income*in*urban* areas*is*only*9%*of*what*is*needed*to*afford*this*house.**

GaOQ2C-GIDD (CanbackGlobal Income Distribution Database www.cgidd.com). Data accessed in August 2015

Malawi

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$310% $929% $1 549% $2 323% $3 330% $5 034% $8 518% $15 101% $29 040% $38 720%

$, $50 000 000% $100 000 000% $150 000 000% $200 000 000% $250 000 000% $, $5 000% $10 000% $15 000% $20 000% $25 000% $30 000% $35 000% $40 000% $45 000% $400% $1 200% $2 000% $3 000% $4 300% $6 500% $11 000% $19 500% $37 500% $50 000%

Potential)Booksize)(US$) Potential)Loan)Size)(US$) Annual)Household)income)(US$)

Potential%Booksize%(15%year%term%at%32%%interest%rate) Potential%Loan%amount%(15%year%term%at%32%%interest%rate)

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1. Reduce*the*cost*of*housing. 2. Deconstruct*the*housing*delivery*process*to*accommodate*smaller* loans,*and*build*housing*incrementally,*but*at*scale. 3. Resolve*macroBeconomic*issues

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The*rise*of*ABTs,*Lafarge’s*earth*brick,*and*then*investment*in*cement* manufacturing*are*all*about*finding*new*affordable*niches.**

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Cost*of*a*50kg*bag*of*cement*(US$)

$0,00$ $5,00$ $10,00$ $15,00$ $20,00$ $25,00$ $30,00$ DRC South$Sudan Burundi Eritrea Central$African$Republic Somalia Rwanda Zimbabwe Djibouti Nigeria Uganda Malawi Niger$ Burkina$Faso Libya Sierra$Leone Cote$d'$Ivoire Guinea$Bissau Liberia Comoros Namibia Ghana Mali Kenya Seychelles Zambia Morocco Tanzania Angola Madagascar Gambia Mauritius Egypt Lesotho Togo Benin Algeria Mozambique Ethiopia South$Africa Senegal Tunisia Botswana Swaziland Cameroon

Price$of$a$50kg$bag$of$cement$(US$)

September,$ 2015 November,$2014 August,$2013 September,$ 2012

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Incremental*real*estate:

• Land
• Core*house
• Major*additions

Project*or*individual*approach:

• US$2000*– $10*000*per*loan
• Up*to*5*years*tenor
• Unsecured*or*partially*secured

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When*registration*costs*more*than*10%*of*the*property,*or*takes*more*than*2* months,*can*a*lowBincome*homeowner*feel*its*worth*it?**Even*in*South*Africa,* informal*transactions*are*common.**The*time*it*takes*to*register*property*is*a* serious*disincentive*to*investment.

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50 100 150 200 250 300 Cost+of+registering+a+commercial+property+(%+of+property+value) Number+of+days+to+register+a+commercial+property

Number+of+days,+and+cost,+to+register+a+commercial+property:+2015+vs.+2012

Days+2015 Days+2012 Cost+(%+of+property+value)+2015 Cost+(%+of+property+value)+2012

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Still,*the*time*and*/*or*cost*is*coming*down*in*many*countries:* Time:*Rwanda,*Burundi,*Morocco,*Lesotho,*Cote*d’Ivoire,*Guinea*Bissau,* Sierra*Leone,*Senegal.*Up*in*Namibia Cost:*Rwanda,*Malawi,*Angola,*Mozambique,*Niger,*Togo,*DRC,*Cote* d’Ivoire,*Comores,*Sierra*Leone,*Senegal,*Nigeria.**Up*in*Zambia,*Namibia

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Number+of+days,+and+cost,+to+register+a+commercial+property:+2015+vs.+2012

Days+2015 Days+2012 Cost+(%+of+property+value)+2015 Cost+(%+of+property+value)+2012

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5

2007*Funding*(KES*Bn)

Customers'*Deposits

100% 2008*Funding*(KES*Bn) 2009*Funding*(KES*Bn) 2010*Funding*(KES*Bn) 2011*YTD*Funding (KES*Bn)

Long%Term%Capital% M arkets'%Funding 26% Short%Term%Bank% Loans 4% Customers'% Deposits 70%

Customers'* Deposits 96% Short*Term* Bank*Loans 4% Customers'* Deposits 64% Short*Term*Bank* Loans 7% Long*Term*Capital* Markets'*Funding 29% Customers'* Deposits 88% Short*Term*Bank* Loans 1 2%

Short& Term& Bank& Loans& 2% Long&Term&Bank& Loans& 3% Customers'& Deposits& 66%

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Housing Finance Kenya’s funding mix

2012$YTD$Funding$(KES$ Bn)$

Source:*Presentation*by*Frank*Ireriat*the*AUHF*Conference:*http://www.auhf.co.za/conference/mobilisingIcapitalIforIhousingIfinance/

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New*funds*see*promise* in*housing*microfinance* products*and* approaches:*big* challenge*is*the* development*of*sound* capital*structures*– space*for*DFIs*to*offer* advisory*services

MicroBuild Fund:*$50m*fund*established*by* Habitat*for*Humanity*International,*providing* debt*capital*and*technical*assistance*to*MFIs*to* grow*HMF CLIFF (Community*Led*Infrastructure*Finance* Facility):*established*by*Homeless*International,* in*multiple*countries*in* Africa

!

Investor)/)Financier) Type)of)financier)) FUNDERS)OF)KUYASA)FUND,)SOUTH)AFRICA) Ubutyebi)Trust)) Public!benefit!organisation!operating!in!the!Nelson!Mandela!Bay! municipality!with!the!intent!of!enabling!affordable!finance!for! housing!!! Kovacs)Investment)) !Local!investment!company!! Cadiz)Life)Limited,)South) Africa)) Local!investment!fund!!! NHFC)) Government!owned!development!finance!institution!! South)African)Municipal) Workers)Union)) Municipal!workers!union!pension!fund!! Rural)Housing)Loan) Fund)) Government!owned!development!finance!institution!! South)African)Micro) Finance)Apex)Fund)) A!government!organisation!established!in!2006!and!tasked!with! wholesale!funding!for!MFIs.!! Dutch)International) Guarantee)for)Housing)) In!cooperation!with!Dutch!housing!corporations!and! municipalities,!DIGH!loans!are!used!to!fund!social!housing! projects!across!the!world.!! Oikocredit)) One!of!the!largest!funders!of!microfinance!worldwide!with!wide! ranging!investors!from!USA,!Canada,!UK!and!both!individual!and! institutional.!! FUNDERS)OF)NACHU,)KENYA) Rooftops)Canada)) International!development!programme!of!Canada’s!cooperative! and!social!housing!sector,!which!works!with!Canadian!and! international!partners!to!improve!housing!conditions! NBBL)) Cooperative!housing!Federation!of!Norway!representing!57! cooperative!housing!associations!and!9300!affiliated!housing! cooperatives.!!! Homeless) International/Cliff) UK!based!charity!! Swedish)Cooperative)) Swedish!Cooperative!Centre!established!bythe!Swedish! Cooperative!movement!to!equip!poor!people!with!the!ability!to! fight!poverty.! Cooperative)Bank)of) Kenya)) Commercial!bank.!NACHU!has!borrowed!from!it!using!a! guarantee!from!Rooftops!Canada.!!

Homeless* International rebrands*as* REALL* (Real*Equity* for*All)

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Original* house*– built* around* 1995 Three* backyard* rooms* with*waterI borne* sewerage:* rental* income Container*in* the*front*yard* for*spaza shop* – small* business*with* cash*flow*for* credit Building*materials* for*the*next*project

GAPS*in*what*we*know:*Quantify*this

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“Obsessive* attention*to* detail”

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Use*of*technology*creates*a*unique*opportunity*to*document*and* quantify*the*value*chain*”in*obsessive*detail”.**reall’s spread across*Africa*offers*a*very*useful*basis*for*comparison.

27

Future*plans:

• More*case*studies
• Building*material*

supply*study

• REIT*study
• Rental*study
• Housing*investor*

landscape

• Doing*Housing*

Business*Indicators

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Subsidies* available*for* NGOs*– covers* tuition. Very*useful*to* be*strategic* about* structuring a* delegation*from* a*country.

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www.auhf.co.za

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Thank*you!

Kecia*Rust kecia@housingfinanceafrica.org www.housingfinanceafrica.org +2783*785*4964

https://www.facebook.com/HousingFinanceAfrica?ref=hl

Twitter*@keciarust Twitter*@AUHF_Housing

The*Housing*Finance*in*Africa*2015*Yearbook*can*be*downloaded*from* http://www.housingfinanceafrica.org/document/2015IhousingIfinanceIinIafricaI yearbook/