Re framing the Re-framing the climat ate change debate Dr Sarah - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Tyndall Cen Cli t h Climate change a

Re-framing the Re framing the ate change debate

Dr Sarah Mande tre for Climate Change Research The University of Mancheste d i ti and energy: a marine perspective January 2010

Talk o

1) Dangerous climate change ) g g 2) Cumulative emissions 3) Global GHG pathways 4) UK responses to the challenge

• utline

e

What is dange

UK & EU define

B t

UK & EU define

But: 2°C impacts at the worst end … 2 C impacts at the worst end … ocean acidification devastati … failure to mitigate leaves 2°C

rous climate change?

e this as 2°C e this as 2 C

d of the range d of the range ing even at 400-450ppmv CO2 g pp

2

C stabilisation highly unlikely

Emission-red

UK EU & Global long UK, EU & Global - long

UK’s 80% r EU 60% 80% EU 60%-80% Bali 50%

CO2 stays in atmosphe Long-term targets are g g

duction targets

g term reduction targets g term reduction targets

reduction in CO2e by 2050 “ 2050 “ 2050 “ 2050

ere for 100+ years, dangerously misleading g y g

2050 reduction unrelated to avoidin l ti i i th t tt cumulative emissions that matter this fundamentally rewrites the time from long te

• from long te
• to urgent &

ng dangerous climate change (2°C) g g g ( ) (i b b d t) (i.e. carbon budget) eline of climate change erm gradual reductions erm gradual reductions radical reductions

How do global te

link to

l b l d ti global and natio

& from there to & from there to

emission-reduct emperatures l b b d t nal carbon budgets ion pathways?

Temperature Temperature threshold

science/modelling

GHG concentration

science/modelling

Global cumulative emission budget emission budget

Apportionment regime

National cumulative

pp g

emission budget Global emission pathway pathway

2000-2008 emissions +

National emission h

+ short-term projections

pathway

… looking at it graphically

pathway for sions emiss CO2e e

available carbo budget

nual C

budget

Ann

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

• n

2060 2080 2100

pathway for sions emiss

Plot recent

CO2e e

Plot recent

available carbo budget

nual C

budget

Ann

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

t emissions t emissions

• n

2060 2080 2100

pathway for sions emiss

leased

CO2e e

ady rel

available carbo budget

nual C

ns alre

budget

Ann

Emissio E

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

• n

2060 2080 2100

pathway for sions emiss

leased We can proje

CO2e e

ady rel We can proje

• Short-te

We know:

available carbo budget

nual C

ns alre We know:

• Cumula

budget

Ann

Emissio E

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

ect: ect: term emissions to peak year/s

• n

ative emissions for 2°C

2060 2080 2100

pathway for sions emiss

leased Hence can

CO2e e

ady rel Hence can

available carbo budget

nual C

ns alre

budget

Ann

Emissio E

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

n draw emission pathways n draw emission pathways

• n

2060 2080 2100

pathway for sions emiss

leased

CO2e e

ady rel

nual C

ns alre

carbon budget ra

Ann

Emissio E

2000 2020 2040

r a CO2e budget

ange

2060 2080 2100

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

To consider:

• 1. CO2 emissions fro

2 Non CO GHGs (p

• 2. Non-CO2 GHGs (p

What emission space remain

• 3. CO2 emissions fro

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

• m landuse (deforestion)

(principally agriculture) (principally agriculture) ns for:

• m energy?

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

Included very optimistic: y

• CO2 from land-use &

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

forestry emission scenarios

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

Included very optimistic:

• CO2 from land-use &

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

forestry emission scenarios

• CO2 from land-use &

7

CO2)

5 6

Characterised by high

O2 (MtC

4 5

uncertainty (principally driven

by deforestation; 12-25% of

s of CO

3 4

global CO2e)

Two Tyndall scenarios with

issions

2

Two Tyndall scenarios with different carbon-stock levels i i 70% & 80%

Em

1

remaining: 70% & 80%

2000 2000

forestry emission scenarios

2020 2040 2060 2080 21

Year

2020 2040 2060 2080 21

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

Included very optimistic:

• land-use & forestry em

CO h

• non-CO2 greenhouse

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

mission scenarios i i gas emissions

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

Included very optimistic:

• land-use & forestry em

CO h

• non-CO2 greenhouse

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

mission scenarios i i gas emissions

• non-CO2 greenho

e)

14 2 g

GtCO2

12

2 ghg (G

10

Marked tail from food related emissions

• n-CO2

6 8

related emissions

s of no

4 6

Food emissions/capita assumed to halve by 2050

missions

2 4

Em

2000

• use gas emissions

g

Early action Mid action Late action Late action

Year

2020 2040 2060 2080 21

Ty Ty emissio

(2000

Included very optimistic:

• land-use & forestry em

CO h

• non-CO2 greenhouse

Global CO e emissions peak Global CO2e emissions peak

yndall’s yndall s

• n scenarios

0-2100 CO2e)

mission scenarios i i ? gas emissions? ks of 2015/20/25? ks of 2015/20/25?

facto

the latest em

what is the sca ‘problem’ w

• ring in…

missions data

ale of the global g we now face?

It’s gettin Global CO2 em

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.3% p.a. 2000-2006

ng worse! mission trends?

latest global CO2e g

2

~ 2.4% p.a. since 2000 ~ Stern assumed 0.95% p (global peak by 2

e emission trends?

p.a. 2015)

Wh

this failure to reduce

&

the latest science on

Say about Say about

at does:

e emissions n cumulative emissions a 2°C future? a 2 C future?

What greenhou pathway se gas emission ys for 2°C

Assumpt

2015/20/25 global peak in em Highly optimistic deforestatio 2°C global carbon budget 2°C global carbon budget 1400 to 2200 G ~ 10% to 60% chance of exc

tions

missions

• n & food emission reduction

GtCO2e for 2000-2100

eeding 2°C

Total greenhouse g Total greenhouse g

2015 peak 2020

ses (GtCO2e)

60 80

es (GtCO2e)

60 80

eenhouse gas

40

enhouse gase

40

missions of gre

20

issions of gree

20

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

2000 2020 20

Emi

(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transac

gas emission pathways gas emission pathways

0 peak 2025 peak

es (GtCO2e)

60 80 Low DL Low DH Medium D

enhouse gase

40 Medium DL Medium DH High DL High DH

issions of gre

20

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2

Emi Year

40 2060 2080 2100

ctions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

10% - 60% chanc

4 5 0 p p m v c u m u la tiv e e m

)

& with a 2

GtCO

2e)

8 0

gases (G

6 0

nhouse

4 0

• f green

2 0

missions

2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4

Em

(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical

ce of exceeding 2°C

is s io n s c e n a rio s p e a k in g in 2 0 2 0

g 2020 peak

L o w A L o w B

Unprecedented d ti

L o w B M e d iu m A M e d iu m B H ig h A

reductions (~10% pa from 2020)

H ig h B

from 2020)

Y e a r

4 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 8 0 2 1 0 0

Y e a r

Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

… and for ene

60

(with 20

2)

50

e (GtCO

40

O2 alone

30

Even then total

• ns of C

20

decarbonisation by ~ 2035-45 necessary

Emissio

10

2035 45 necessary

2000

rgy emissions?

2015 peak M edium DL

020 peak)

p L 2015 peak High DL 2015 peak High DH 2020 peak High DL 2020 peak High DH

Year

2020 2040 2060 2080 21

What annual global from energy f from energy f

Assume

2020 global peak in emissio Highly optimistic deforestati Highly optimistic deforestati ~ 50% (?) chance of excee

emission reductions for 3°C and 4°C for 3 C and 4 C

• ns

tion & food emission reductions tion & food emission reductions eding 3°C & 4°C

For 3°C & emissions For 3 C & emissions … 9% annual red For 4°C & emissions … 3.5% annual re peaking by 2020: peaking by 2020: ductions in CO2 from energy

2

gy peaking by 2020: p g y eductions in CO2 from energy

What are the What are the such re

Annual reductions of gre “been associated with econo UK gas & French 40x nuclear UK gas & French 40x nuclear Collapse Soviet Union econom Collapse Soviet Union econom

precedents for precedents for ductions?

ater than 1% p.a. have only

• mic recession or upheaval”

Stern 2006 r ~1% p a reductions r ~1% p.a. reductions

(ex. aviation & shipping)

my ~5% p a reductions my 5% p.a. reductions

450p

greenhouse gas e (50% chance of

ppmv

emission pathways f exceeding 2°C)

For a 450ppmv pp

the UK can emit ~ 4 … the UK can emit ~ 4 2050

Note: this is based on how the U emissions to the UK in order to ca

v CO2 future,

2

,

4 8 billion tonnes of carbon 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between 2000-

UK Government apportioned global alculate the ‘60% by 2050’ target

From this two q From this two questions arise... questions arise...

Question 1… …….what were U 2000 & 2006? 2000 & 2006?

Emissions: 2000-200 F 450 f t For a 450 future, this leaves 3 this leaves 3 … i.e. we’ve used ¼ 50 i j t 6½ 50 years in just 6½ y

UK emissions between

06 = ~1.2 billion tonnes carbo 3 6 billion tonnes for 2007-205 3.6 billion tonnes for 2007 205

• f our permitted emissions fo

! years!

Question 2… Question 2… ….. what emissio in the immediate

• ns are we locked into

e future?

Looking at 450ppmv target graphically …

Carbon

200 160 180

s (MtC)

120 140

missions

100 120

arbon e

60 80

Ca

40 20 2000 2010 2020

trajectories

s curve from 2012 s curve from 2012

Year

2030 2040 2050

Carbon

200 160 180

s (MtC)

120 140

Plot data f

missions

100 120

arbon e

60 80

Ca

40 20 2000 2010 2020

trajectories

s curve from 2012 s curve from 2012

from 2000 to 2006

Year

2030 2040 2050

Carbon

200 160 180

s (MtC)

120 140

Plot data f Dip due to

missions

100 120

arbon e

60 80

Ca

40 20 2000 2010 2020

trajectories

s curve from 2012 s curve from 2012

from 2000 to 2006

• September 11th

Year

2030 2040 2050

Carbon

200 160 180

s (MtC)

120 140

What about the nex

missions

100 120

lets assume we s all sectors, excep

arbon e

60 80

growth is held at ~

Ca

40 20 2000 2010 2020

trajectories

s curve from 2012 s curve from 2012

xt 6 years …

stabilise annual emissions from pt aviation and shipping, where ~ 2% below current levels

Year

2030 2040 2050

Carbon

200 160 180

s (MtC)

120 140

This gives between n

missions

100 120

between n

arbon e

60 80

Ca

40 20 2000 2010 2020

trajectories

s curve from 2012 s curve from 2012

s a notable rise in emissions now & 2012 now & 2012

Year

2030 2040 2050

)

600 700

loc an

(MtCO2)

500 600

But UK

~2

missions

400

can emit

• nly

ioxide em

300

17 to 23 GtCO2

6% p.a.

Carbon di

200

2

C

100 2000 2010 2020

Carbon pathway p y

cking nation into unprecedented nnual CO2 reductions for

2

2 decades, beginning 2012-14

9% p.a. p

Year

2030 2040 2050

What does the about UK emission pathway approach say n policies ?

)

600 700

(MtCO2)

500 600

missions

400

ioxide em

300

Carbon di

200

C

100 2000 2010 2020

Policy implications y p

Year

2030 2040 2050

)

600 700

(MtCO2)

500 600

demand

missions

400

ioxide em

300

Carbon di

200

su de

C

100

de

2000 2010 2020

Policy implications y p

upply & mand mand

Year

2030 2040 2050

Mitig

Short-term: Short-term: Rapid reduction in emissions th volun Low emission diets Afforestation – combined timbe Moratoriums on: sale of inefficient appliances ( pp ( sale of any cars under 60mpg airport, sea port and road exp airport, sea port and road exp any new fossil-fuel powerstat

gation

2010-2015 2010-2015 hrough behaviour change tary & enforced (via regulation) er new-build (all A++ from 2010) ( ) g pansion pansion ion (without CCS & CHP)

Mitig

Short-Medium Short-Medium Rapid deployment of low-carbo rapid renewables (Severn massive biomass program p g widespread micro-grids coal with CCS & CHP nuc coal with CCS & CHP nuc nuclear with CHP Massive shift to electricity for tr H d i f t t (?) Hydrogen infrastructure (?)

gation

term: 2015-2025 term: 2015-2025

• n energy supply

barrage?) mme clear clear ransport & heat

Reducing car (mitig (mitig T id d li To avoid dangerous clim reduction in carbon em 90% 90% Remember – almost al from energy & 80% of from energy & 80% of 20% of the global popu bon emissions gation) gation) t h d mate change we need a missions in the region of: % !! % !! ll carbon emissions are f all emissions come from f all emissions come from ulation !

Th Thank ank you