RAY Y TR TRACING CING: : TODAY, , TOMORR RROW OW AND ND BEY - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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RAY Y TR TRACING CING: : TODAY, , TOMORR RROW OW AND ND BEY EYOND ND

The challenges getting machines to make physically acute pictures

Ian Mallett

Jon Peddie Research

Jon Peddie Research

Focus and emphasis on Visualization, Graphics, and forms of reality Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and investors Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies Product testing and benchmarking Conferences Chasing Pixels, Finding Visual Magic

Jon Peddie Research

Introduction

Ray tracing is to manufacturing what a storyboard is to film — the ability to visualize the product before it's built. Movies couldn't be made today with the quality they have without ray tracing. The market for ray tracing is entering into a new phase Will review market size, market composition and ways the industry is reducing rendering time and computational loads.

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Ray tracing is part of the 3D hierarchy

3D Modelin ling M&E MCAD AEC CAD Ray Trac acin ing engine Design it Apply it See it

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Wireframe to Rendering

Desig ign n it Apply ply it See it This could be a movie, game, advert, or manufacturing plan

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Overall Market Huge

$0 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Data a Generat atio ion Markets s ($M)

Si Simul mulation, CA CAGR R (14-20): 6 : 6.7% M& M&E, E, CA CAGR R (14-20): 2 : 2.3% MF MFG, CA CAGR R (14-20): 4 : 4.3% AEC, EC, CA CAGR R (14-20): 5 : 5.3%

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RT Ray-Tracer introduced Siggraph 2005 for BRL-CAD 2013 Lagoa introduces cloud-based renderer 1997 Chaos Group founded introduces V-Ray 1988 Cebas founded 1986 Mental Images founded 2007 Nvidia acquires Mental Images iRay introduced 2007 Nvidia releases CUDA enabling GPU compute

2002

Renderman

ray tracing 2014 Google acquires Zync, cloud-based rendering 2015 Autodesk A360 Cloud Rendering

Moore’s Law Marches Ray Tracing Forward

1968 Arthur Appel introduces Ray Tracing Algorithm

In 2000, Software prices tumble for 3D modeling tools

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The Big get Bigger

3D Modeli ling ng and Animation mation Market Share CAD Market et Share

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Ray tracing software market

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ray y traci cing TAM (M units) s)

TA TAM, M, CA CAGR R (14-20) 2.6% PAM, M, CAGR R (14-20) 2.4%

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North America Largest for RT SW

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Country

France Japan USA Germany Canada Bulgaria Spain USA

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Crazy market

10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

80 Ray trac acing ing supplie pliers

Co Continuing comp

• mpanies & softwa

ware Acquired & mer merged ed comp

• mpanies

Free ee sof

• ftwa

ware Failed ed or

• r abandon
• ned

ed comp

• mpanies

es

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Consolidation Seems Obvious Acquisitions and mergers already in the works, but its not going to be a blood bath

Consolida

• lidation

tion inevitable table?

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No Discernable Cause and Effect?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

80 Ray y traci cing ng suppliers rs CAGR: : 89%

Ra Ray y tracing s ng suppliers Introd

• duction
• ns

Li Linea ear (Ra Ray tracing supplier ers)

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Try it before you buy it, fly it, fund or build it There is no longer any need to photograph automobiles and airplanes for marketing … . . . Not much else is either Ray tracing saves zillions of dollars by catching mistakes, allowing for changes, and helping analyze collateral issues BUT – it has to be physically perfect, and to do that you have to have a ridiculously large, robust, and compatible materials library

Virtual Prototyping is the Key

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This is not a photograph It’s hybrid rendering If it moves, look at the lights

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The Future

Some companies have survived on the basis of their breadth of services, supporting all the major tools, several shaders and materials libraries. Material libraries offer an opportunity and a threat. The leading companies are offering material library tools and formats as a way to lock-in their customers. Nvidia hopes to use its leverage with GPUs and marketing power to widely disseminate their materials and tie customers to their libraries (and thus, their hardware).

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A shakeup is coming in the rendering market

The successful companies will be those who can offer:

• Ease of use, including test images and production run progress

monitoring

• Some guarantee of success
• Tweaks that enhance ray tracer performance. In general, physics-

based optical fidelity is not as valuable as “looks right.”

• Service and support
• Broad-based robust materials library

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Summary

• There is an enormous demand for virtual prototyping
• The data analysis is gigantic and can’t be done

without the cloud or ray tracing

• The images have to be physically accurate, photo-

realistic, and made with high-fidelity material properties

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Jon@jonpeddie.com

Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic

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Margaret Hagen introduced the concept that there are different methods of portraying realism in which certain properties of a scene are accurately represented, and others are approximated, abstracted, or omitted (Varieties

• f Realism, Cambridge Press, 1986). Thank you Ludwig

The point of this idea is that pictures can be realistic in some respects and not in others. For example, Dürer’s “A Young Hare is extremely realistic, but not photo-accurate. However, the iconic Utah teapot is geometrically

• accurate. Rendering methods can make its rendering photo-accurate but not necessarily realistic.

Epilog Photorealism vs. photorealistic

Dürer’s “A Young Hare” 1502