Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions M. Iosjpe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions M. Iosjpe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions M. Iosjpe Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada 2 Environmental sensitivity of the marine regions EMRAS II Programme Environmental

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Radioecological sensitivity of the coastal marine regions

Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

  • M. Iosjpe
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Environmental sensitivity of the marine regions

EMRAS II Programme Environmental sensitivity working group The environmental sensitivity has been considered as a dose to adults Release scenario: a single deposition of 1000 Bq/m2 of radionuclides in each marine region

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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NRPA box model: schematic structure of the processes involved in modelling

Surface water Deep water Surface sediment Deep sediment Advection Advection Advection Sedimentation Sedimentation Resuspension Bioturbation Pore water diffusion Burial Radioactive decay Radioactive decay Radioactive decay Seaweeds Fish Molluscs Crustacea CFS CFF CFM CFC Doses to man and biota Ice module Freezing and melting processes Middepth water Advection Advection

Bacteria Mammal

DCF

Comparison of the contribution to individual dose to man from seafood ingestion and external exposure indicates a clear domination

  • f

the ingestion pathway (MARINA-Med EC, 1994; IAEA-TECDOC-1330, 2003, Iosjpe et al., 2009)

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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NRPA box model: equations of the transfer of radionuclides between the boxes (Iosjpe et al., 2009)

i i i i i ij n j ij j ji n j ji i

T t Q A k A T t k A T t k dt dA       

 

 

, ) ( ) (

1 1

   ( ) , , t T T T

i i i

       1 t t T w

i v v M jk j k

m i i

 

min

( , ) , 

Ai = 0, t < Ti

Non-nstantaneous mixing in oceanic space

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Model Corroboration (Iosjpe, 2006; Iosjpe et al., 2009 )

Years

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Concentration in sediment, Bq/kg, d.w.

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Estimated Measured (Average)

Years

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Concentration of 239Pu in sediment, Bq/kg, d.w.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Years

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

99Tc water concentration, Bq m-3

10 100 1000 10000 NRPA, 2002, 2006 Average concentration Minimal concentration Maximal concentration Present version

Cumbrian Waters

Pu-239 Tc-99

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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IAEA, 2004: sediment distribution coefficients Kd, and concentration factors for fish (CFf), crustaceans (CFc), molluscs (CFm) and seaweeds (CFs)

137Cs 90Sr 131I 239Pu

Kd 4000 8 70 100000 CFf 100 3 9 100 CFc 50 5 3 200 CFm 60 10 10 3000 CFs 50 10 10000 4000

Selected radionuclides

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Selected marine regions

CW LB NC OB S GR

Cumbrian waters of the Irish Sea (CW) Lyme Bay on the English Channel (LB) North Sea of the Norwegian coasts (NC) Skagerrak (S) Gulf of Riga on the Baltic Sea (GR) Ob Bay on the Kara Sea (OB)

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Name Volume, m3 Depth, m Surface area, m2 Irish Sea: Cumbrian Waters 3,80E+10 2,80E+01 1,36E+09 English Channel: Lyme Bay 2,01E+11 3,95E+01 5,09E+09 North Sea: Norwegian Current Surface 9,20E+12 1,56E+02 5,90E+10 Skagerrak 6,78E+12 2,10E+02 3,23E+10 Baltic Sea: Gulf of Riga 4,05E+11 2,30E+01 1,76E+10 Kara Sea: Ob Bay 3,19E+11 1,10E+01 2,90E+10

Selected marine regions

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

Selected marine regions: SSL (suspended sediment load) and SR (the mass sedimentation rate)

Name SSL t/m3 SR, t/m2/y Irish Sea: Cumbrian Waters 1,0E-05 6,0E-03 English Channel: Lyme Bay 3,0E-06 1,0E-04 North Sea: Norwegian Current Surface 6,6E-06 1,0E-04 Skagerrak 1,0E-06 5,0E-03 Baltic Sea: Gulf of Riga 1,0E-06 5,0E-04 Kara Sea: Ob Bay 5,0E-05 1,0E-03

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Seafood consumption (Smith & Jones, 2003) corresponds to results for the population of the coastal regions

Group 1 (adult) Group 2 (child) Group 3 (infant) Fish 51 10.2 2.5 Crustacean 17 2.25 0 Molluscs 14 3.5 0 Seaweeds 5 0 0

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Years

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 0,01 0,1 1 10 100

Cs-137, Fish, OB Sr-90, cructaceans, S I-131, seaweeds, LB Pu-239, molluscs, CW

Concentration of radionuclides in seafood, Bq/kg w.w.

CW LB NC OB S GR

Radionuclides concentration in seafood

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Dose (Sv) for different age from 137Cs (Cumbrian Waters), and during different times from 239Pu for adult (Skagerrak).

137Cs

Cumbrian Waters

Adult 10 y 1 y Sv 0,0 2,0e-7 4,0e-7 6,0e-7 8,0e-7 1,0e-6 1,2e-6 1,4e-6 1,6e-6 1,8e-6

239Pu

Skagerrak

1st year 2nd year 10th year Sv 1e-5 2e-5 3e-5 4e-5 5e-5

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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131I

Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds Sv 1e-9 1e-8 1e-7 1e-6 1e-5

137Cs

Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds Sv 0,0 2,0e-7 4,0e-7 6,0e-7 8,0e-7 1,0e-6 1,2e-6 1,4e-6

90Sr

Fish Crustaceans Molluscs Seaweeds Sv 0,0 2,0e-8 4,0e-8 6,0e-8 8,0e-8 1,0e-7 1,2e-7

239Pu

Fish Crusaceans Molluscs Seaweeds Sv 5e-6 1e-5 2e-5 2e-5 3e-5 3e-5

Doses (Sv) from one year of consumption of I-131, Cs-137, Sr-90, and Pu-239 in fish, crustaceans, molluscs, and seaweed.

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Doses, Sv

0,0E+00 5,0E-07 1,0E-06 1,5E-06 2,0E-06 2,5E-06 3,0E-06 CW LB NC S GR OB Cs-137 0E+00 1E-07 2E-07 3E-07 4E-07 5E-07 CW LB NC S GR OB Sr-90 0E+00 2E-06 4E-06 6E-06 8E-06 1E-05 CW LB NC S GR OB I-131 0E+00 2E-05 4E-05 6E-05 8E-05 1E-04 CW LB NC S GR OB Pu-239

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Potential improvement: comparison of scenarios: releases in the local environments

0,0E+00 5,0E-07 1,0E-06 1,5E-06 2,0E-06 2,5E-06 3,0E-06 CW LB NC S GR OB Cs-137

0,00E+00 2,00E-06 4,00E-06 6,00E-06 8,00E-06 1,00E-05 1,20E-05 CW LB NC S GR OB

I-131

0,00E+00 1,00E-07 2,00E-07 3,00E-07 4,00E-07 5,00E-07 6,00E-07 CW LB NC S GR OB

Sr-90

0,00E+00 2,00E-05 4,00E-05 6,00E-05 8,00E-05 1,00E-04 CW LB NC S GR OB

Pu-239

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Potential improvement:

IMPACT OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION

0,0E+00 5,0E-07 1,0E-06 1,5E-06 2,0E-06 CW NC Cs-137

The green color corresponds to the results of dose calculations from Cs-137 release, where the same assumptions about the levels of seafood consumption for the population of the coastal regions, provided by Smith & Jones, (2003) have been used in all marine locations, while the red color corresponds to calculations where site specific information about average seafood consumption, provided by Smith & Jones, (2003) and by Bergsten (2003) have been used for the Cumbrian waters (CW) and for the Norwegian coastal waters (NC), respectively.

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PARAMETERS AND PROCESSES CONTROLLING THE VULNERABILITY OF THE MARINE REGIONS

) S ( P ) S ( ) L (

V P dP dV ) P ( S         

The local sensitivity index

V(S) and P correspond to state variables (for example, doses to man) and parameters which are under evaluation; P0 and V0(S) correspond to the basic values of the parameter P and the state variable V(S). In the present paper the values for P0 and V0(S) correspond to results provided by

PARAMETERS fl - maximum water exchange for the compartment SR - sedimentation rate SSL - suspended sediment load in water column RW - sediment reworking rate RT - pore-water turnover rate Kd - sediment distribution coefficient D - molecular diffusion coefficient CF - radionuclide concentration factors for seafood

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Results

  • Doses to adults for all selected radionuclides and marine

locations have low sensitivity to the molecular diffusion coefficient (D) and pore-water turnover rate (RT).

  • Sr-90: sensitivity index is low for parameters describing water-

sediment interactions

  • I-131: only one parameter, namely the concentration factor for

seaweeds, has a high sensitivity index value

  • Doses to man are most sensitive to the process of

bioaccumulation (parameter CF)

  • Doses to man are sensitive to the process of the particle mixing

(parameters Kd, Rw, SSL), but only for the radionuclides with relatively high sediment distribution coefficient (Pu-239, Cs-137)

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada Board # 048 Abs # 746

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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for the advection rates (fl).

Locations OB CW LB S GR NC

137Cs

0.26 0.10 0.06 0.21 0.10 0.22

90Sr

0.39 0.16 0.06 0.21 0.13 0.23

239Pu

0.11 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.15

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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for sediment reworking rate (RW), sediment distribution coefficient (Kd), suspended sediment load in water column (SSL), sedimentation rate (SR).

OB CW LB S GR NC

137Cs

Rw 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.07

239Pu

Rw 0.33 0.23 0.39 0.28 0.33 0.18

137Cs

Kd 0.21 0.22 0.06 0.09 0.21 0.07

239Pu

Kd 0.07 0.27 0.36 0.20 0.37 0.13

239Pu

SSL 0.39 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.00

239Pu

SR 0.11 0.16 0.01 0.29 0.06 0.00

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Absolute values of the local sensitivity index for concentration factors for fish (CFf), crustaceans (CFc), molluscs (CFm) and seaweeds (CFs).

137Cs 90Sr 131I 239Pu

CFf 0.72 0.36 0.01 0.07 CFc 0.12 0.20 0.00 0.05 CFm 0.12 0.33 0.00 0.60 CFs 0.04 0.12 0.99 0.28

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Potential improvement: evaluation of the key environmental parameters (Poster, ICRER2011 –sensitivity analysis of the model parameters, f. ex., CF, Kd, … )

                 ) SSL k 1 ( d h R ) SSL k 1 ( h d D ) SSL k 1 ( d k SR k

d S T d S d d WS

) SSL k 1 ( d ) 1 ( k R

d d W

          )] 1 ( k [ h ) 1 ( k R ) 1 ( k R )] 1 ( k [ h D k

d S d W d T d 2 S SW

                                  )] 1 ( k [ h SR k )] 1 ( k [ h D k

d S d d 2 S SM

                     )] 1 ( k [ h h D k

d SM S MS

            )] 1 ( k [ h SR k k

d SM d MD

          .

Water column Surface sediment Middle sediment Deep sediment kWS kWS kSM kMS kMD

Water-sediment interaction

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Definition of parameters is not a trivial task: concentrations (Iosjpe, 2011)

Years

1 2 3 4 5

238Pu concentration in water and sediment

1e-5 1e-4 1e-3 1e-2 1e-1 1e+0 1e+1 (A) surface water (B) surface water (A) bottom water (B) bottom water (A) surface sediment (B) surface sediment

Pu-238 bulk concentrations in surface water, bottom water and sediment compartments: (A) the basic scenario; (B) Kd increased by a factor

  • f 5, Rw decreased by

a factor of 5, in comparison to (A). Results correspond to the southern part of the Norwegian Current. ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada

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Years

20 40 60 80 100

238Pu bulk concentration in surfacesediment

1 10 Variant (A) Variant (B)

40 years 69 years

Practical results: half-life in sediment (Iosjpe, 2011)

ICRER 2011, 19-24 June 2011 Hamilton Canada