Quarterly Hays Report Consolidated Independent 2.5Q19 School - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Quarterly Hays Report Consolidated Independent 2.5Q19 School - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 30, 2022 279 likes •442 views

Quarterly Hays Report Consolidated Independent 2.5Q19 School District Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow Economic Conditions Austin Area (June 2019) 1.7% Unemployment Annual Rate Home Starts 20,038 new

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SLIDE 1

Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Hays Consolidated

Independent

School District

Quarterly Report 2.5Q19

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SLIDE 2

Economic Conditions – Austin Area (June 2019)

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Unemployment Rate

  • 0.4%

20,038 new jobs National rate 0.87%

Job Growth

1.7%

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.8% Texas 3.6% Austin MSA 2.7% Hays County 2.9%

Annual Home Starts

16,390

302 fewer home starts than 2Q18

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SLIDE 3

Austin New Home Ranking Report

ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q19

*Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff

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Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 2,320 2,152 3,123 13,212 2 Pflugerville ISD 1,801 1,734 1,783 10,222 3 Austin ISD 1,454 1,651 1,583 10,301 4 Hays CISD 1,551 1,571 2,373 49,949* 5 Georgetown ISD 1,531 1,519 2,856 15,941 6 Round Rock ISD 1,114 1,428 835 5,922 7 Manor ISD 1,181 1,183 1,789 15,058 8 Hutto ISD 1,012 1,007 1,090 7,812 9 Liberty Hill ISD 1,151 874 2,324 11,178 10 Del Valle ISD 745 807 1,273 33,193 11 Lake Travis ISD 599 701 1,741 5,302 12 Dripping Springs ISD 590 588 1,215 6,524 13 Jarrell ISD 365 369 499 7,587 14 San Marcos CISD 422 340 240 8,962 15 Bastrop ISD 217 172 1,592 19,025 16 Eanes ISD 80 101 91 154 17 Elgin ISD 84 75 275 5,976 18 Lago Vista ISD 63 56 699 3,496 19 Taylor ISD 43 33 185 871 20 Lockhart ISD 52 18 43 1,660

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SLIDE 4

New Housing Activity

  • Hays CISD starts remained flat in 2Q19, and remained on pace from the same

period in 2018

  • District closings rose 73% over 1Q19 totals, as builders worked through available

inventory resulting from the increase in starts in 1Q19

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Hays CISD

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annual Starts Annual Closings Starts 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Closings 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q 203 302 257 472 387 354 422 1Q 206 222 278 404 398 290 319 2Q 240 293 309 326 458 491 419 2Q 217 296 300 359 337 357 553 3Q 279 335 456 412 416 374 3Q 209 286 306 416 439 330 4Q 251 242 370 187 214 322 4Q 271 312 379 191 326 340 Total 973 1,172 1,392 1,397 1,475 1,541 841 Total 903 1,116 1,263 1,370 1,500 1,317 872

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SLIDE 5

Annual Closing Distribution

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WHITE OAK PRES.

Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL Future 1 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 123 553 4,463 2 BLANCO VISTA BLANCO VISTA 200 80 82 950 3 SHADOW CREEK PFLUGER 200 47 1 4 CREEKSIDE VILLAGE KYLE 153 78 5 AVANA CARPENTER HILL 88 21 21 6 CROSSWINDS (PFLUGER ELEM) PFLUGER 83 19 307 223 7 BUNTON CREEK VILLAGE FUENTES 72 29 146 68 8 WOODLANDS PARK TOBIAS 60 12 84 74 9 WHITE OAK PRESERVE BUDA 55 18 23 51 10 STONEFIELD TOM GREEN 53 15 58 TOTALS 1,270 442 1,275 5,829

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SLIDE 6

Vacant Developed Lots

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CREEKSIDE

Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual Closings VDL Future 1 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 553 4,463 2 CROSSWINDS (PFLUGER ELEM) PFLUGER 83 307 223 3 BUNTON CREEK VILLAGE FUENTES 72 146 68 4 PLUM CREEK NEGLEY 41 131 3,378 5 SUNSET HILLS SCIENCE HALL 2 115 77 6 CREEKSIDE TOBIAS 20 108 40 7 6 CREEKS NEGLEY 95 1,757 8 HIGHLANDS AT GRIST MILL HEMPHILL 12 89 112 9 LA VENTANA CARPENTER HILL 16 88 10 STAGECOACH CROSSING KYLE 15 86 153 TOTALS 567 1,718 10,271

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SLIDE 7

Future Lots

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Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 2Q19 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual Closings VDL Future 1 MCCOY BLANCO VISTA 8,200 2 LA SALLE HEMPHILL 7,000 3 NANCE RANCH NEGLEY 4,500 4 SUNFIELD TOM GREEN 306 553 4,463 5 PLUM CREEK NEGLEY 41 131 3,378 6 PECAN WOODS (HEMPHILL ELEM) HEMPHILL 2,985 7 SUNSET OAKS ‐ HAYS HEMPHILL 2,227 8 6 CREEKS NEGLEY 95 1,757 9 KYLE ESTATES EAST FUENTES 1,608 10 ANTHEM NEGLEY 1,600 TOTALS 347 779 37,718

SUNSET OAKS

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SLIDE 8

Overall Housing Data

By Elementary Attendance Zone

Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category

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Elementary Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings Under Const. Inventory Vacant

  • Dev. Lots

Future BLANCO VISTA 189 53 200 80 53 100 82 9,150 BUDA 80 43 55 18 52 58 23 1,093 CAMINO REAL 22 3 16 2 9 9 123 2,442 CARPENTER HILL 118 29 125 27 65 80 195 867 ELM GROVE 1 FUENTES 103 22 100 50 10 30 231 3,477 HEMPHILL 36 18 12 12 16 24 89 13,118 KYLE 166 15 169 85 16 59 86 927 NEGLEY 111 46 89 23 57 77 283 11,795 PFLUGER 158 33 284 67 27 52 310 420 SCIENCE HALL 18 6 3 3 5 16 115 967 TOBIAS 99 22 125 36 28 63 211 942 TOM GREEN 451 129 392 150 159 253 625 4,751 Grand Total 1,551 419 1,571 553 497 821 2,373 49,949

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SLIDE 9

District Housing Overview

  • Hays CISD has over 2,300 lots

available to build on

  • The district has nearly 50,000

future planned lots

  • Groundwork is currently

underway on over 2,300 lots

9 Active Subdivision Future Subdivision Groundwork Underway

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SLIDE 10

Phase 4 Phase 3-5B Phase 2-12

Residential Activity

Sunfield

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Sunfield

  • 6,467 total lots
  • 4,463 future lots
  • 553 vacant developed lots
  • 133 homes under construction
  • 1,282 occupied homes
  • Phase 2-12 (136 lots) groundwork nearing

completion, delivering lots Sep 2019

  • Phase 3-5B (121 lots) groundwork

underway, delivering summer 2020

  • Phase 4 (800 lots) groundwork starting fall

2019, first lots delivering fall 2020

  • Building 300-350 homes per year
  • $220K-$425K

Sunfield Mutli-Family

  • 250 future apartment units
  • Plans currently under review with city
  • City anticipates approval fall 2019
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SLIDE 11

Residential Activity

Plum Creek

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Plum Creek

  • 5,425 total lots
  • 3,378 future lots
  • 131 vacant developed lots
  • 18 homes under construction
  • 1,888 homes occupied
  • Peninsula Phase 2 (27 lots)

groundwork nearing completion, homes starting fall 2019

  • Phase 2 section 1 (202 lots)

preliminary plan under review

  • Building 40-50 homes per year
  • Ph. 2-1

202 Lots

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SLIDE 12

Residential Activity

6 Creeks

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6 Creeks

  • 2,100 total lots
  • 1,990 future lots
  • 95 vacant developed lots
  • 14 homes under construction
  • First home closings by end 2019
  • Phase 1-1 delivered and

homebuilding

  • Phase 1-3 (103 lots) groundwork

underway, delivering late spring 2020

  • Phase 1-2 (121 lots) under review
  • Building 60-80 homes per year
  • Ph. 1-3

103 lots

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SLIDE 13

Ten Year Forecast

By Grade Level

*Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year

  • 5 year growth = 2,416
  • Fall 2024/25 enrollment = 23,042
  • 10 year growth = 5,943
  • Fall 2029/30 enrollment = 26,569

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Year (Oct.) ELC EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2015/16 129 510 1,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18,667 2016/17 132 518 1,349 1,363 1,446 1,517 1,489 1,505 1,512 1,486 1,475 1,579 1,463 1,249 1,145 19,228 561 3.01% 2017/18 148 545 1,411 1,473 1,417 1,458 1,593 1,568 1,520 1,552 1,520 1,643 1,511 1,311 1,204 19,874 646 3.36% 2018/19 140 514 1,310 1,365 1,405 1,445 1,532 1,661 1,512 1,600 1,608 1,642 1,618 1,317 1,275 19,944 70 0.35% 2019/20 137 147 674 1,415 1,391 1,413 1,436 1,519 1,599 1,643 1,555 1,633 1,744 1,621 1,472 1,227 20,626 682 3.42% 2020/21 137 147 674 1,546 1,498 1,463 1,481 1,513 1,593 1,611 1,685 1,567 1,779 1,681 1,474 1,417 21,266 640 3.10% 2021/22 137 147 674 1,511 1,631 1,562 1,530 1,547 1,574 1,598 1,655 1,705 1,699 1,724 1,539 1,420 21,653 387 1.82% 2022/23 137 147 674 1,566 1,584 1,694 1,636 1,592 1,595 1,585 1,644 1,680 1,842 1,648 1,589 1,474 22,088 435 2.01% 2023/24 137 147 674 1,615 1,636 1,640 1,759 1,714 1,667 1,611 1,626 1,662 1,821 1,781 1,541 1,525 22,558 469 2.13% 2024/25 137 147 674 1,683 1,717 1,701 1,705 1,836 1,775 1,661 1,655 1,644 1,800 1,763 1,667 1,477 23,042 484 2.15% 2025/26 137 147 674 1,745 1,803 1,781 1,766 1,776 1,921 1,773 1,709 1,679 1,781 1,742 1,642 1,595 23,673 631 2.74% 2026/27 137 147 674 1,794 1,877 1,857 1,839 1,834 1,855 1,919 1,822 1,732 1,817 1,726 1,627 1,574 24,231 558 2.36% 2027/28 137 147 674 1,844 1,946 1,928 1,902 1,908 1,902 1,851 1,971 1,848 1,877 1,759 1,613 1,558 24,865 634 2.62% 2028/29 137 147 674 1,884 2,057 2,003 1,978 1,969 1,983 1,899 1,901 1,998 2,000 1,814 1,641 1,546 25,633 768 3.09% 2029/30 137 147 674 1,936 2,178 2,116 2,055 2,054 2,053 1,979 1,950 1,929 2,163 1,933 1,694 1,572 26,569 937 3.66%

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SLIDE 14

Ten Year Forecast

By Elementary Campus

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

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HISTORY Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2018/19 2019/20* 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 BLANCO VISTA ELEMENTARY 800 627 658 688 716 744 772 809 838 864 887 918 942 BUDA ELEMENTARY 900 603 716 749 789 830 851 848 867 886 890 908 925 CAMINO REAL ELEMENTARY 800 773 790 799 824 842 869 898 912 918 943 972 1,008 CARPENTER HILL ELEMENTARY 800 648 718 709 718 732 753 812 856 885 925 961 991 ELM GROVE ELEMENTARY 720 880 862 862 835 826 805 816 817 807 801 798 805 FUENTES ELEMENTARY 720 628 672 687 693 692 718 735 767 791 814 849 879 GREEN ELEMENTARY 714 759 702 793 859 947 1,033 1,106 1,172 1,214 1,284 1,378 1,481 HEMPHILL ELEMENTARY 720 274 372 376 385 399 411 430 468 509 554 609 668 KYLE ELEMENTARY 770 642 609 634 661 685 731 756 773 781 798 818 849 NEGLEY ELEMENTARY 780 807 876 890 915 947 971 1,027 1,094 1,167 1,232 1,303 1,406 PFLUGER ELEMENTARY 800 707 791 825 859 909 944 944 931 929 937 944 960 SCIENCE HALL ELEMENTARY 720 567 539 574 582 581 588 607 637 657 684 714 750 TOBIAS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 720 613 692 730 748 756 792 840 863 852 865 873 882 UHLAND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 900 843 734 736 729 735 751 747 755 754 774 787 804 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL 10,864 9,371 9,731 10,052 10,313 10,625 10,989 11,375 11,750 12,014 12,388 12,832 13,350 Elementary Absolute Change ‐242 360 321 261 312 364 386 375 264 374 444 518 Elementary Percent Change ‐2.52% 3.84% 3.30% 2.60% 3.03% 3.43% 3.51% 3.30% 2.25% 3.11% 3.58% 4.04%

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SLIDE 15

Ten Year Forecast

By Secondary Campus

*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity

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HISTORY Fall ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2018/19 2019/20* 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 BARTON MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 718 756 808 832 844 847 893 941 961 992 1,032 1,049 CHAPA MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 753 733 699 708 714 719 741 740 792 798 819 831 DAHLSTROM MIDDLE SCHOOL 855 785 831 892 953 946 951 907 911 904 945 959 970 SIMON MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 757 735 726 723 730 689 692 708 772 779 785 780 MCCORMICK MIDDLE SCHOOL 900 899 976 987 996 953 967 991 1,088 1,203 1,260 1,284 1,293 WALLACE MIDDLE SCHOOL 765 800 796 747 742 718 722 732 769 837 892 915 931 MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 4,950 4,712 4,827 4,859 4,954 4,905 4,895 4,956 5,157 5,469 5,666 5,794 5,854 Middle School Absolute Growth 120 115 32 95 ‐49 ‐10 61 201 312 197 128 60 Middle School Percent Growth 2.61% 2.44% 0.66% 1.96% ‐0.99% ‐0.20% 1.25% 4.06% 6.05% 3.60% 2.26% 1.04% LIVE OAK ACADEMY 200 202 183 194 193 190 193 192 192 192 192 192 192 HAYS HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,968 2,533 2,351 2,053 2,086 2,140 2,122 2,140 2,179 2,195 2,290 2,436 JOHNSON HIGH SCHOOL 2,251 1,085 1,604 2,117 2,314 2,380 2,465 2,475 2,475 2,479 2,547 2,703 LEHMAN HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,644 2,234 2,173 1,990 1,935 1,928 1,899 1,926 1,869 1,912 1,945 2,001 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 6,951 5,814 6,035 6,322 6,353 6,525 6,641 6,678 6,733 6,715 6,778 6,974 7,332 High School Absolute Growth 145 221 287 31 172 115 37 55 ‐18 63 196 358 High School Percent Growth 2.56% 3.80% 4.76% 0.49% 2.71% 1.77% 0.56% 0.82% ‐0.26% 0.94% 2.89% 5.13% ALTERNATIVE IMPACT CENTER 47 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL TOTAL 47 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 DISTRICT TOTAL 22,765 19,944 20,626 21,266 21,653 22,088 22,558 23,042 23,673 24,231 24,865 25,633 26,569 District Absolute Growth 70 682 640 387 435 469 484 631 558 634 768 936 District Percent Growth 0.4% 3.4% 3.1% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% 3.7%

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SLIDE 16

Summary

  • Hays County’s unemployment rate is below 3.0%.
  • HCISD 2nd quarter starts remain on pace from the same period in

2018, yet closings are well ahead of 2018’s pace due to a 73% increase over 1st quarter totals.

  • The Sunfield development accounted for over 20% of all district

annual starts and closings

  • Groundwork is underway on over 2,300 lots within HCISD
  • The Negley and Hemphill elementary zones account for nearly

50% of HCISD’s future planned lots.

  • Hays CISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,416

students during the next 5 years for a fall 2024 enrollment of nearly 23,042.

  • Ten year growth of nearly 5,943 students for a fall 2029

enrollment of 26,569.

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