Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . Why Cannot We Just . . . Quantum Equations . . . Quantum Approach Explains Let Us Therefore Look . . . the Need for Expert The Main Idea of . . . The Main Successes of . . . Knowledge: On the Example Superposition: a . . . How All This Implies . . . of Econometrics Home Page Songsak Sriboonchitta 1 , Hung T. Nguyen 1 , 2 , Olga Kosheleva 3 , Title Page Vladik Kreinovich 3 , and Thach N. Nguyen 4 ◭◭ ◮◮ 1 Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand ◭ ◮ songsakecon@gmail.com Page 1 of 33 2 New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003, USA hunguyen@nmsu.edu Go Back 3 University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas 79968, USA, olgak@utep.edu, vladik@utep.edu Full Screen 4 Banking University of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, Thachnn@buh.edu.vn Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 1. Why Aren’t We in Charge of the World Eco- Why Cannot We Just . . . nomics? Quantum Equations . . . • Computing a trajectory of a celestial body or of a Let Us Therefore Look . . . spaceship became a purely computational problem. The Main Idea of . . . The Main Successes of . . . • There was a similar hope when the first equations were Superposition: a . . . discovered for describing economic phenomena: How All This Implies . . . – that mathematical methods would enable us to pre- Home Page dict and control economic behavior, Title Page – that eventually, all the economic problems will be ◭◭ ◮◮ resolved by appropriate computations, – that eventually, econometricians will be largely in ◭ ◮ charge of the world economics. Page 2 of 33 • Since then, econometrics has experienced a lot of suc- Go Back cess stories. Full Screen • However, in spite of all these success stories, we are Close still not in charge. Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 2. Why Aren’t We in Charge (cont-d) Why Cannot We Just . . . • Who is in charge are experts, CEOs, fund managers, Quantum Equations . . . bankers: Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – people who may know some mathematical models, The Main Successes of . . . – but whose main strength is in their expertise – not Superposition: a . . . in knowing these models. How All This Implies . . . • Why? Why are econometricians not in charge of com- Home Page panies? Title Page • After all, companies are interested in maximizing their ◭◭ ◮◮ profits. ◭ ◮ • So why not let a specialist in maximization be in charge? Page 3 of 33 Go Back Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 3. Why Aren’t We in Charge (cont-d) Why Cannot We Just . . . • The fact that this is not happening en masse shows Quantum Equations . . . that: Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – in spite of all the successes of econometrics, The Main Successes of . . . – there is a still a big advantage in using expert knowl- Superposition: a . . . edge. How All This Implies . . . • But why? We do not have an expert computing space- Home Page ship trajectories. Title Page • Why is it different in economics? ◭◭ ◮◮ ◭ ◮ Page 4 of 33 Go Back Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 4. Experts Are Needed Not Only in Economics Why Cannot We Just . . . • In many others areas of human activity, there is also a Quantum Equations . . . surprising need for experts. Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . • For example, in sports, a few decades ago: The Main Successes of . . . – new sports mathematical methods were developed Superposition: a . . . – that drastically improved our understanding of sports How All This Implies . . . phenomena and led to many team successes. Home Page • However, it soon turned out that relying only on the Title Page mathematical models is not a very effective strategy. ◭◭ ◮◮ • Much better results can be obtained if we combine the ◭ ◮ mathematical model with the expert’s opinions. Page 5 of 33 • But why? Go Back Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 5. Experts Are Needed: Smart Cities Why Cannot We Just . . . • Cities often grow rather chaotically, with unintended Quantum Equations . . . negative consequences of different decisions, so: Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – why not have a computer-based system combining The Main Successes of . . . all city services, Superposition: a . . . – why not optimize the functioning of the city while How All This Implies . . . taking everyone’s interests into account? Home Page • This seems to be a win-win proposition. Title Page • This was the original idea behind smart cities. ◭◭ ◮◮ • This idea indeed led to many improvements and suc- ◭ ◮ cesses. Page 6 of 33 • But it also turned out that often, expert knowledge can Go Back help. Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 6. Experts Are Needed: Teaching Why Cannot We Just . . . • Every time there is a new development in teaching Quantum Equations . . . technology, optimistic popular articles predict that: Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – these technologies, optimized by using appropriate The Main Successes of . . . mathematical models, Superposition: a . . . – will eventually replace human teachers. How All This Implies . . . • And they don’t. Home Page • This was predicted when videotaped lectures appeared. Title Page • This was predicted with current MOOCs – massive ◭◭ ◮◮ open online courses. ◭ ◮ • And these predictions turn out to be wrong. Page 7 of 33 • Definitely, teachers adopt new technologies, these new Go Back technologies make teaching more efficient. Full Screen • However, attempts to eliminate teachers completely have not yet been successful. Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 7. Experts Are Needed: Medicine Why Cannot We Just . . . • The very first medicine-oriented expert system MYCIN Quantum Equations . . . appeared several decades ago. Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . • Since then, enthusiasts have been predicting that med- The Main Successes of . . . ical doctors will be replaced by expert systems. Superposition: a . . . • Definitely, these systems help medical doctors and thus, How All This Implies . . . improve the quality of the health care. Home Page • However, still medical experts are very much in need. Title Page • Similar examples can be found in many other areas of ◭◭ ◮◮ human activity. ◭ ◮ • But why are experts so much needed? Page 8 of 33 • Why cannot we incorporate their knowledge into auto- Go Back mated systems that would thus replace these experts? Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 8. Why Cannot We Just Translate Expert Knowl- Why Cannot We Just . . . edge into Computer-Understandable Terms Quantum Equations . . . • Many researchers recognized the desirability: Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – to translate imprecise natural-language expert knowl- The Main Successes of . . . edge Superposition: a . . . – into computer-understandable terms. How All This Implies . . . • Historically the first successful idea of such a transla- Home Page tion was formulated by Lotfi Zadeh as fuzzy logic . Title Page • This techniques has indeed led to many successful ap- ◭◭ ◮◮ plications. ◭ ◮ • However, in spite of all these successes, experts are still Page 9 of 33 needed. Go Back • Why? Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 9. What We Do in This Talk Why Cannot We Just . . . • We show that this unexpected need for expert knowl- Quantum Equations . . . edge can be explained if we take into account that Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . – many complex systems – especially systems related The Main Successes of . . . to econometrics, Superposition: a . . . – are well described by quantum equations (that were How All This Implies . . . originally invented to describe micro-objects). Home Page • And the experience of designing computers that take Title Page quantum effects into account has shows that: ◭◭ ◮◮ – the best results are attained if instead of asking ◭ ◮ precise questions, Page 10 of 33 – we ask kind of imprecise ones – we will explain this in detail. Go Back Full Screen Close Quit
Why Aren’t We in . . . Experts Are Needed . . . 10. Quantum Equations Help in Econometrics Why Cannot We Just . . . • Quantum equations have been originally developed for Quantum Equations . . . studying small physical objects. Let Us Therefore Look . . . The Main Idea of . . . • Somewhat surprisingly, they have been shown to be The Main Successes of . . . useful Superposition: a . . . – in describing economic phenomena and, How All This Implies . . . – more generally, any phenomena that involves hu- Home Page man decision making. Title Page ◭◭ ◮◮ ◭ ◮ Page 11 of 33 Go Back Full Screen Close Quit
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