Review of Performance
Q1 Q1-2019 2019
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC)
Q1 Q1-2019 2019 Review of Performance Wednesday, May 8, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q1 Q1-2019 2019 Review of Performance Wednesday, May 8, 2019 Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC) Page 2 | Q1-2019 Review of Performance Forward-looking statements Certain of the statements included in this Presentation about the
Review of Performance
Wednesday, May 8, 2019 Intact Financial Corporation (TSX: IFC)
Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 2 |
Certain of the statements included in this Presentation about the Company’s current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements. The words “may”, “will”, “would”, “should”, “could”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “trends”, “indications”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “likely”, “potential”
presentation are made as at March 31, 2019, and are subject to change after that date. Forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by management based on management’s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Many factors could cause the Company’s actual results, performance or achievements or future events or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, the following factors: All of the forward-looking statements included in this Presentation, the Q1-2019 MD&A and the quarterly earnings press release dated May 7, 2019 are qualified by these cautionary statements and those made in the section entitled Risk management (Sections 19-24) of our MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2018. These factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the Company. These factors should, however, be considered carefully. Although the forward-looking statements are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, the Company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, investors should ensure the preceding information is carefully considered. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements made herein. The Company and management have no intention and undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
business as management currently expects;
insurance policies that the Company writes;
may affect the Company’s investments, floating rate securities and funding obligations under its pension plans;
and severity, including in the personal auto line of business;
creditors rather than investors;
the insurance industry;
products to clients and provide services to the Company;
integration plans relating to acquisitions;
“Acquisition”) of OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. (“OneBeacon”);
States in relation to the Acquisition;
United States in relation to the Acquisition;
pooling arrangement among all industry participants) and similar mandated risk-sharing pools;
major earthquake;
related losses, as well as the impact of climate change;
credit ratings; the Company’s access to debt and equity financing;
credit risk related to the financial health of reinsurers);
reliance on information technology and telecommunications systems and potential failure of or disruption to those systems, including in the context of evolving cybersecurity risk;
Company’s products and distribution;
subsidiaries and the ability of the Company’s subsidiaries to pay dividends;
trading prices of the Company’s securities;
exchange rates;
interpretation or enforcement thereof.
Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 3 |
Important notes:
➢ Effective in Q1-2019, w e have improved the w ay we report the performance of our distribution channel and investment/other expenses, to better align our reporting w ith how management view s the results of our business. We have reclassified comparative figures in order to ensure comparability and consistency with this new presentation. For further details, see Section 14 - Presentation changes of the Q1-2019 MD&A. ➢ Unless otherw ise noted, DPW refer to DPW normalized for the effect of multi-year policies, excluding industry pools, fronting and exited lines (referred to as “DPW” in this MD&A). See Table 25 for details on exited lines and Table 26 for the reconciliation to DPW, as reported under IFRS, of the Q1-2019 MD&A. All underwriting results and related ratios exclude the MYA and the results of our U.S. Commercial exited lines, unless oth erw ise noted. The expense and general expense ratios are presented herein net of other underw riting revenues. ➢ When relevant, w e present changes in constant currency, which exclude the impact of fluctuations in foreign exchange rates from one period to the other, to enhance the analysis of our results w ith comparative periods. See Section 16 – Non- IFRS financial measures of the Q1-2019 M D&A. ➢ Regulatory Capital Ratios refer to MCT (as defined by OSFI and the AMF in Canada) and RBC (as defined by the NAIC in the U.S.). All references to “total capital margin” in this MD&A include the aggregate of capital in excess of company action levels in regulated entities (170% MCT, 200% RBC and other CALs in other jurisdictions) plus available cash in unregulated entities. ➢ Unless otherw ise noted, market share and market related data for P&C Canada are based on the latest available data (FY 2018) from MSA Research Inc. (“MSA”) and excludes LIoyd’s Underw riters Canada, Insurance Corporation of British Columbia, Saskatchew an Government Insurance, Saskatchewan Auto Fund, Genw orth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company Canada and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Company. MSA data excludes certain Québec regulatedThis Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this Presentation concerning the Company does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that a prospective purchaser or investor may desire to have in evaluating whether or not to make an investment in the Company. The information is qualified entirely by reference to the Company’s publicly disclosed information. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its the directors, officers or employees as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for such information or opinions. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake
Each prospective purchaser should contact his, her or its own legal adviser, independent financial adviser or tax adviser for legal, financial or tax advice. The Company uses both International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and certain non-IFRS measures to assess performance. Non-IFRS measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. Management analyzes performance based on underwriting ratios such as combined, expense, loss and claims ratios, MCT, RBC and debt-to-total capital, as well as other non-IFRS financial measures, namely DPW, change or growth in constant currency, Underlying current year loss ratio, Underwriting income (loss), Underwriting expenses, NEP, NOI, NOIPS, OROE, ROE, AROE, Non-operating results, Net distribution income, Adjusted net income, AEPS, Total net claims, and Total capital margin. These measures and
Company, including the Annual Information Form, may be found online on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
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Chief Executive Officer
Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 5 |
was impacted by severe winter weather
remains well above the industry, though below our mid-teens historical track record
Operating ROE
driven by rate increases in hardening market conditions and strong new business growth in U.S.
reflects impact of elevated weather losses in Canada while underlying performance improved across the business
combined ratio
profitability improvement plans are on track
combined ratio for U.S. commercial
in total capital margin, reflecting our strong financial position
billion
premium growth
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100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Outperformance in basis points
1 IFC’s ROE corresponds to the AROE, as defined in MD&A. Industry ROE is our estimate of total Canadian P&C Industry excluding Lloyd’s, ICBC, SGI, SAF, MPI, Genw orth, Canada Guarantee, and IFC, based on MSA Research Inc. data.1 500 bps ROE
target
10-year average = 650 bps 5-year average = 700 bps
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Key Points
DPW growth 101.9% combined ratio
Key Points
DPW growth
combined ratio Personal Auto Personal Property Personal Property
and our improving competitive position
elevated weather-related claims
as planned
favourable market conditions
by a 9.8 point increase in CAT losses
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Canadian Commercial U.S. Commercial
DPW growth
DPW growth
(constant currency basis)
combined ratio
Key Points Key Points
increases in hard market conditions
elevated weather-related losses
remain strong
drove low double-digit growth in lines not undergoing profitability improvement
profitability improvement actions, including realized synergies
combined ratio
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1
1 Refer to Section 6 – Outlook of the Q1-2019 MD&AOverall, the Canadian industry’s ROE is expected to improve but remain below its long-term average of 10% over the next 12 months
We expect growth at a mid-to-upper single- digit level in personal auto
The market is hardening with rate actions continuing, tightening of capacity and further increases in residual market volumes
We expect mid-single-digit growth in personal property
We expect that the severe winter weather will lead to further firming of market conditions
We expect upper single-digit to low-double digit growth in commercial lines Canada
Market conditions are now hard
We expect low-to-mid single-digit growth in U.S. commercial lines
The pricing environment remains competitive, with modest upward trends continuing
Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 10 |
experience enhancements
should lead to improvements in growth, pricing and productivity
New Feature:
Customers can now start a claim on their smartphones
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Funding for 16 Canadian charitable partners to explore concrete solutions for managing climate change
Intact Centre for Climate Change Adaptation at the University of Waterloo
Our flagship investment has led to many benefits including education for consumers
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driving positive growth and profitability outlook
supported by our actions and hardening market conditions across the business
drove a disappointing NOIPS of $0.73
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Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
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Net investment income Underwriting income
35 19
Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19
(56)
Distribution EBITA
186 197 123 120 113 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19
Net operating income
109 125 140 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19
12% 12%
29 30 36 Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19
20% 20%
Operating income was impacted by $165 million
winter, offset in part by strong growth in net investment income and distribution EBITA, as well as an operating tax benefit of $17 million.
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Personal Auto Personal Property Personal Property
82.2% 76.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% 23.4% 22.7%
Q1-18 Q1-19
Underlying current year loss ratio CAT loss ratio (Favourable) unfavourable PYD ratio Expense Ratio
58.4% 57.7% 4.6% 14.4%
31.8% 30.8%
Q1-18 Q1-19
Underlying current year loss ratio CAT loss ratio (Favourable) unfavourable PYD ratio Expense Ratio
101.9% 106.4% 99.8% 88.3%
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Canadian Commercial U.S. Commercial
69.8% 68.4% 2.2% 7.9%
35.0% 33.7%
Q1-18 Q1-19
Underlying current year loss ratio CAT loss ratio (Favourable) unfavourable PYD ratio Expense Ratio
59.1% 55.5%
1.0% 37.5% 37.5%
Q1-18 Q1-19
Underlying current year loss ratio CAT loss ratio (Favourable) unfavourable PYD ratio Expense Ratio
106.7% 99.5% 94.0% 95.3%
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Maintain leverage ratio
(20% debt-to-total capital by the end of 2019)Increase dividends Debt-to-total capital ratio Quarterly common share dividends (per share) Manage volatility Invest in growth
Share buybacks
$0.16 $0.25 $0.27 $0.31 $0.32 $0.34 $0.37 $0.40 $0.44 $0.48 $0.53 $0.58 $0.64 $0.70 $0.76
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2-19*
11.8% 14.3% 22.9% 18.9% 18.7% 17.3% 16.6% 18.6% 23.1% 22.0% 21.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1-19
* Declared div idend 20% debt-to-total capital targetQ1-2019 Review of Performance Page 18 |
Maintain leverage ratio
(20% debt-to-total capital by the end of 2019)Increase dividends
Limited volatility to market fluctuations
Manage volatility Invest in growth
Share buybacks
Common share prices
Debt securities
+100 bps 2
($11M) Net Income ($202M) OCI ($1.53) BVPS ($188M) Net Income ($174M) OCI ($2.60) BVPS
See Table 28 - Sensitivity analysis (after tax) of the Q4-2018 MD&A 1 Net of any equity hedges, including the impact of any impairment. 2 Excludes the impact of debt securities related to the def ined benef it pension plan.Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 19 |
excluding the impact of severe weather with $1.4 billion in total capital margin
supported by our actions and hardening market conditions towards achieving a low-90s combined ratio by end of 2020
Q1-2019 Review of Performance Page 21 |
Media Inquiries
Stephanie Sorensen
Director, External Communications 1 (416) 344-8027 stephanie.sorensen@intact.net General Corporate Inquiries Intact Financial Corporation 700 University Avenue Toronto, ON M5G 0A1 1 (416) 341-1464 1-877-341-1464 (toll-free in N.A.) info@intact.net Investor Relations Inquiries
General Shareholder Inquiries
ir@intact.net 1 (416) 941-5336 1-866-778-0774 (toll-free in N.A.)
Ken Anderson VP Investor Relations & Treasurer 1 (855) 646-8228 ext. 87383 kenneth.anderson@intact.net Maida Sit Director, Investor Relations 1 (416) 341-1464 ext. 45153 Maida.sit@intact.net Neil Seneviratne Director, Investor Relations 1 (416) 341-1464 ext. 45156 neil.seneviratne@intact.net