Q1 2020 Martin Modig CEO Antti Rokala CFO June 02, 2020 Volumes - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

YA Holding AB (publ) Investor presentation Q1 2020 Martin Modig CEO Antti Rokala CFO June 02, 2020

Volumes

Income development and share in employment after course

2

YA’s market share reached all-time high in Q1 2020

Source: Public Employment Service, Monthly statistics

26,3 25,8 26,6 27,3 26,4 26,2 25,8 27,4 28,8 29,6

2.025 1.655 1.564 1.380 1.419

4.338

2.231 1.896

6.548

1.788 2.389 2.325 1.716 1.886

6.990

1.843 1.289

7.644

1.364

6.406 6.809 24,7 5.289

1.223 1.190

6.936

1.410

7.079 9.341 9.108 7.733 9.548 9.115 4.942 4.467 4.757

17,2

9.339

18,3 21,7 23,9 25,0 25,5 18,1

• 23,5%
• 31,9%

YA market share Others YA

YA Mar 2019 Mar 2020: Market Mar 2019 – Mar 2020:

Continued growth in YH and Vux to partially compensate decrease in AUB

4

881 862 822 671 576

1 2 3 4 5 6

500 1.000 1.500 mar-18 jan-18 may-19

• kt-18

feb-18 apr-18 jul-19 may-18 jun-18 aug-18 sep-18 nov-18 jul-18 jun-19 feb-19 apr-19

1.014

dec-18 jan-19 dec-19 aug-19 sep-19

• kt-19

nov-19 jan-20 feb-20

1.431

mar-20 mar-19

1.498 1.181 1.263 1.192 1.161 1.398

59%

520 469 398386 579644 694 628666 778 781 821

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.500 500 1.000 jun-19 jul-18 jun-18 jan-18 feb-18 mar-18 apr-18 may-18 dec-19 aug-18 sep-18

• kt-18

nov-18 feb-19 mar-19 mar-20 apr-19 may-19 jul-19 aug-19 sep-19

• kt-19

nov-19 jan-20 feb-20 jan-19 18-dec 58%

YH up by 59 percent within 12 months VUX up by 58 percent within 12 months

Covid-19 affecting corporate sales starting March 2020

1 2 3 4

J J F M M O A J A S N D 2019 2020

The decrease in volumes of AUB is partly compensated by growing number of students and income from VUX and YH

Nov Jul Mar’19

3.724

Apr May

3.988

Jun Aug Oct

3.899

Sep

3.734

Dec Jan’20 Feb Mar

4.137 3.370 3.353 2.827 3.353 3.733 3.734 3.947 3.894

• 6%

AF YH Vux

In total in Q1, “other” customers accounted for 44% of revenues compared to the 22% in previous year

Monthly revenues by customer segment Mnkr

Other customers than AF stand for ~40% of revenues (20% in Q1 2019) and ~85% of gross margin (27% in Q1 2019)

43,8 26,0 4,3 7,2 3,4 8,2 3,0 2,9 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 AF YH VUX Corporate

54,5 44,3

Share of total revenue by customer segment monthly

80% 59% 20% 41% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AF Other

Development 2018-2020 Share in employment 3 months after end of course

• Average last 8 weeks

Share of participants employed decreasing partially in 2020

• unemployment increasing rapidly, less jobs available

All of YA: Average last 4 months*

Share in employment 6 months after course 65 78 Directly after course 3 months after coure 82

75 83 77 76 84 86 87 89 87 86 79 75

71

69 78 76 74 73 74 84 84

80

79 81 78 79 77 75 80 83 82 83 77 74 71 78 83 83 80 81 68

28 65 20 32 36 40 36 12 52 4 8 16 24 28 32 10 24 44 75 48 14 4 6 76 18 69 Ø 78 52 44 20 78 80 48 40 72 79 68 75

74

76 7 Week

Financial information

Income statement, segment information, balance sheet, cash-flow

8

Income Statement – Back to positive

Q1 2020

Revenues were 130.2 mnkr (153.8) in the quarter. EBITDA was 19.5 mnkr (24.5) or 14.9% (15.9%). EBITDA excluding exceptional items was 19.5 mnkr (22.6) or 14.9% (14.7%) EBIT was 3.2 mnkr (7.7) or 2.4% (5.0%). EBIT excl. exceptional items was 3.2 mnkr (5.9) or 2.4% (3.8%) EBITDA in the graph is according to IFRS16 AF investment for employment education is stable at historical low lever. Cost adaptation of SEK 30 million at annual level was completed by December 31, 2019 and is visible in OPEX of Q1 2020. Income sources have become better diversified. Other customers than AF stand for 44% of revenues (22% in Q1 2019) and 85% of gross margin (27% in Q1 2019) The outbreak of virus Covid-19 began to impact YA’s business in March. YA has switched to remote education and remote work for any services that may be handled

• remotely. No-business interruption has occurred.
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 20 30 40 18: Q1 18: Q2 18: Q3 18: Q4 19: Q1 19: Q2 19: Q3 19: Q4 20: Q1 EBITDA EBIT 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 17: Q1 17: Q2 17: Q3 17: Q4 18: Q1 18: Q2 18: Q3 18: Q4 19: Q1 19: Q2 19: Q3 19: Q4 20: Q1

Segment information

2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 Labor market training

1 676 2 891 73,0 119,5 - 3,8 3,5

• 5,1%

3,0%

Vocational University

1 439 937 23,3 16,2 2,5 - 0,0 10,5%

• 0,3%

Vocational secondary educ.

804 422 25,0 9,6 3,2 0,5 12,9%

5,4% Other training

8,9 8,5 1,3 1,6 14,3%

18,8%

• Totalt

3 919 4 250 130,2 153,8 3,2 5,6 2,5% 3,6%

by segment in % Avg n:o of Sales EBIT EBIT students mnkr

• In Q1 2019 most of the profit came from labour market training (AF)
• In Q1 2020 the profit comes from Vocatinal University (YH) and Vocational secondary

education (Vux)

Balance sheet and cash flow Q1 2020

Cash balance amounted to SEK 4.6 million (1.4) at the end of the period. Cash flow for the quarter amounted to SEK -0.7 (- 7.4). Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK -4.3 million (-4.2). Change in working capital was SEK 8.2 million (7.4). Capital injection of SEK 10 million was received in February 2020. Net debt amounted to SEK 506.9 million (551.9). Including leasing liability of SEK 151 million (192). The company has been granted a deferral on tax payment of 22 mnkr until April 2, 2021. No shortfall of liquidity of foreseen during the commencing year.

11

Cashflow Q1

2020 2019

EBITDA 19,5 24,5 Change in working capital

• 4,4
• 4,2

Other non-cash items

• 2,0
• 1,1

Cash flow before interest and taxes 13,1 19,2 Interest paid

• 4,1
• 8,4

Income tax paid

• 0,7
• 0,8

Cash flow from operating activities 8,3 10,0 Cash flow from investing activities

• 0,7
• 5,4

Cash flow from financing activities

• 8,2
• 12,0

Cash flow for the period

• 0,7
• 7,4

Market

AF forecast

12

AF's May report forecasts a continued increase in AUB volumes during the year, but at a more moderate pace compared to the February forecast. The expenditure forecast for 2020 is decreased by 20% to approx. 1 billion.

So far during the year, the number of AUB participants has not reached the previously assessed volumes.

6 531 8 639 4 700 8 000

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec

Feb prognos* Maj prognos

1 011 1 246 1 000

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 2019 utfall 2020 feb prog. 2020 maj prog.

Total paid services AUB Mnkr AF’s May report regarding the forecasted expenditures: Participants in employment training (AUB) monthly, comparison between forecasts

• The May forecast contains a continued increase in the AUB volumes
• Questionable if AF will be able to cope with such an increase
• AF capacity at present is limited due to earlier reorganization / reduction, while resources are

being allocated to serve the new unemployed