~ ~ ~ Q) ca • ~ Q) 'a = ri! tn tn CI) r: tn -- " tn ca :::l ... m 0 tn .... tnLt) 0 r: 0 "'0 eu UN L- • eu (.) -- ........ :::l C)N S (1) (!) ca c: ~ - b ::l -- en., E C) eu c u. -- (.) co - CI) LL C) - "'C 0) - r: u ·c -- en en 0) 0:: ~ ..c .gl Ill) 18 • -N ctI_ .- - :0:; N CN 0)- "'CeD 1: 0 o en U« ) t \ Confidential Proprietary Business Information FM-COGR 00088741 Produced Pursuant to House Rules Fannie Mae
'. ~FanieMae • • 1. Is the housing market overheated? 2. Are consumer changes in preference for adjustable rate vs. fixed rate mortgages cyclical or secular? 3. Does Fannie Mae have a role/responsibility to stabilize the housing market? 4. Does Fannie Mae have an obligation to protect consumers? Confidential - Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 2
~FanieMae ~. ~ • • • The risk in the environment has accelerated dramatically. • Proliferation of higher risk alternative mortgage products "TI • Growing concern about housing bubbles • Growing concerns about borrowers taking on increased risks and higher debt • Aggressive risk layering Confidential - Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 3
~FanieMae ~. ~ • • • Growth in adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) continues at an aggressive pace. • Extensive menu of alternatives / options "TI • Increasing affordability concerns • Emphasis on lowest possible payment • Home being utilized more like an ATM Our competitive advantages today are in fixed rate mortgages. Confidential - Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 4
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ • - fn .... Cl) ~ ... • • ca • • ::E -c ca ... Cl) 0 .... J: • • fn en ... • Cl) fn Cl) ... 0 (J It) .- Cl) J: (J 0 J: (J Cl) .... .- (J C) ~ ... ... ~ .... en Cl) Cl) ::l ... .... ca ca ca '- en 0 +' ::E 0 fn 0 ca Cl) .... Cl) .... .... J: J: +' "'C .... ca Q) - t5 Cl) 0i:: ... Cl) (/) (J Cl) .... ca Q) ca 0:: ..... CD ca >- en ::E ::E CJ) IL() Cl) Cl) • 18 • • -N N (13_ :;::::;N eN Q)- "'C co 0- _ c 0 o (/) 0« Confidential Proprietary Business Information Produced Pursuant to House Rules Fannie Mae FM-COGR 00088745
~ ~ ~ ~ FM~COGR ~ ~ ~ ~ • en a> en c: c: .- - a> L- a> a> c: .- "'0 - () c: C. ::J a .- C) • () () en a () .- .- a C "'0 a .- .c ......., () a> a> L- "'0 L- ::J C. () a> .- a ctS en a L- () ::J > '+- a C) () c: C) a> () .- c: CD en ......., L- . ..c fA 0 Q) ......., L- ctS L. en ::J ......., ctS a en c. :::J > ::J c. 0 0' L- L- E ctS ctS ::J ::J 0 a a Q) a () () .- -c ..c - L- Q) ......., c: Q) 1:5 '+- CD C () ......., ..... .i:: .- 2: .., c: .c: .- en ctS .- () en ......., Q) () a:: Q) a> ctS c: c: ......., ......., en 2- .- L- en a> ..c: a> '+- 0 ......., .Q> .., ctS a> ns a> Ill) L- L- c: 18 0:: • (L (L J- -N co_ • • • • • • CIJ .- - :;::;N eN Q)- -CCO 'C 0 o en U<l:: Confidential Proprietary Business Information 00088746 Produced Pursuant to House Rules Fannie Mae
~ ~FanieMae • • • Alternatively, we could seek to .... Meet the Market Where the Market Is • Meet current consumer and customer demands • Participate in volume and revenue opportunity / current growth areas • Accept higher risk and higher volatility of earnings Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 7
~ • • • Possible Implications Stay the Course Meet the Market • Higher volume / • Lower volumes / revenues revenues • Faster book growth • Slower book growth • Slow down decline in • Continued market share market share decline • Higher credit losses • Lower earnings • Increased exposure to • Impact on key customer unknown risks relationship • Potential increased earnings volatility Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 FannieMae 8
~FanieMae • • • Significant obstacles block our ability to pursue a "Meet the Market" strategy- • Lack of capabilities and infrastructure • Lack of knowledge of the credit risks • Lack of willingness to compete with the market on price • Lack of a value proposition for subprime • Lack of a conduit capacity and Regulatory concerns Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 9
~FanieMae • • .. • Realistically, we are not in a position to "Meet the Market" today_ Therefore, we recommend that we: Pursue a "Stay the Course" strategy and test whether current III market changes are cyclical vs. secular: Advocate public position - Be selectively opportunistic in pursuing business - See if consumer sentiment changes with flatter yield curve While we: Dedicate resources and funding to "underground" efforts to: III - Develop a subprime infrastructure - Develop modeling capabilities for alternative markets - Develop a conduit capability Is there an opportunity to drive the market back to the 3D-year FRM? Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 10
~FanieMae • • " • , If we do not seriously invest in these "underground" type efforts and the market changes prove to be secular, we risk: • Becoming a niche player • Becoming less of a market leader • Becoming less relevant to the secondary market Confidential - Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 11
~ ~ ~ ~ Q.) '. Q.) ·s = rii! c:::: 0 -- tn tn ::l (.) tn -- c E ca • .. CD l- N c:::: CD E CD C) ns t: ns :E "'C Q) +-' () ·c +-' en Q) 0:: ~ ..c .2> ILO ,8 • -N (0_ .- - :;::;N CN Q)- "'C co 1: 0 o en 0« Confidential Proprietary Business Information FM-COGR 00088752 Produced Pursuant to House Rules Fannie Mae
~ ~ ~ ~ ca :a • ·s = ri til c: 0 .- .., co ..... ca ns c= C CD -c til .c c: 0 ns -c .., fn c: ca (.) ns • CD U. U M c: ~ - ca .- E E s- O cu 't: LL CD a.. - Cl) - 'I- C) ca c: .- J: ..... UJ - -0 til Q) s... .- - () ·c en LL Q) 0:: >. L: .gl ILO 18 • -N ctI_ -"::;N .- - CN Q)- -0<.0 1: 0 o en ()« Confidential Proprietary Business Information Fannie Mae FM-COGR 00088753 Produced Pursuant to House Rules
~FanieMae • • • Single Family Performance Corporate Objective Goals Scorecard Monthly Progress Report - May 2005 III Satisfactory progress with customer Maintain leadership and retain \l retention. Holding our own against FRE or grow our key accounts • Leakage to subprime and private label Add ress key com petitive issues \l continues. We lack a value proposition to and maintain 300/0 MOO share stem the tide in today's market • Implement products and III Book growth negative year-to-date. Negative exceed target book growth of growth is expected for the full year 1.75% • III Continue to work on value proposition and I ncrease participation in proposal to enter the subprime flow market subprime • Use technology tools for III On track process improvement and delivery preference • III On track Achieve the HUO goals • III Loss of market share to subprime, interest Lead the market in minority only, option ARMS, attracting mission lending and achieve targets borrowers relative to our "core" products Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 14
~FanieMae • • • Single Family Performance 2005 Divisional Goals ($Bil) • Volume through May totaled $188 billion and was $11 billion (5.5%) behind plan Lender Channel $383.2 - Full year estimate: $491 billion (Q2 forecast) Investor Channel 100.0 • YTD book growth (estimated): minus 1.7 percent Dedicated Channel 16.0 - Full year estimate: minus 0.6 percent Total Business Volume $499.2 • YTD gross charge fee vs. plan: 26.2 bps vs. 26.8 bps 1.75% Book Growth • YTD credit losses vs. plan: $95.5 million vs. $55.1 million Gross Charged Fee 27.3 bps - Current full year estimate (6/05): $253 million Credit Losses $198 mil Inclusive of eBusmess. MAY 2005 YTD 2005 HOUSING GOA LS ACTUAL 55.5% Low Mod (Affordable) 52.0% 26.7% Special Affordable 22.0% • On the housing goals front we 37.0% 41.3% Underserved remain ahead of targets against all 2005 SF PMM Sub Goal goal categories 45.48% 45.0% Low Mod (Affordable) • Our minority lending results through 17.0% 18.92% Special Affordable May are behind goal for Hispan.ic 32.49% Underserved 32.0% (10.99 % ) and total minority 2005 MINORITY LEN>ING GOA LS (23.78%) 5.4% 5.51 % African American 10.99% 11.6% Hispanic 24.7% 23.78% Total Minority Confidential- Highly Restricted As of 6/22/2005 15
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