Prospects for Spaceship Earth David Oldroyd (Silesia Botanic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Hub, COP24 “Prospects for Spaceship Earth”

David Oldroyd (Silesia Botanic Garden) 7 December 2018 Katowice, Poland

Is this the world you’ve made for me?

1.

What is the Machine World doing to Spaceship Earth?

A Finite Complex Machine

‘Spaceship Earth’ Finite Super-complex ‘Gaia’

Machine World Impact – Anthropocene Epoch

ANTHROPOCENE Terraforming by Machine World (debt & fossil fuelled)

• CO2, global warming and acidification of oceans

due to unintended climate modification;

• the pervasive presence around the globe of

plastics, concrete, and other techno-fossils;

• unprecedented rates of deforestation and

extinction;

• cocoon of electromagnetic transmissions

Machine World Terra-forming

ANTHROPOCENE (debt & fossil fuelled)

10 000 BP 1750 AD 1950 AD 2017 AD 1810 AD

Anthropocene – the era of human impact

Great acceleration 1 billion humans 7.6 billion humans Industrial revolution Agricultural revolution

Three stages of the Anthropocene

• 1. The Industrial Revolution - 1750

[stable Holocene Epoch ends]

• 2. The Great Acceleration - 1950 to 2010/2030

[exponential take off - Anthropocene Epoch]

• 3. The Great Transition? [equilibrium] OR

The Great Disruption? [system overshoot & collapse]

The Disruptive Elephant in the Spaceship

‘The elephant in the room’ =

Global Machine World

Debt and fossil-fuelled GDP growth “The invisible hand of market forces” Climate change is one of many symptoms of free market fundamentalism But Note: public subsidy of the fossil fuel

• industry. (An ideological contradiction.)

Take-Make-Use-Dump

Mega-corporations: low-tax; high-dump ‘Droppings from the elephant’?

Two Worlds in Conflict

• 1. The Natural World

3.8 billion years evolving Self-regulating diverse ecological balance

• f adaptive systems in equilibrium

time

Accelerating Human Impact

• 2. The ‘Machine World’ [Hockey Stick]

10000 years of urban culture; 300 years of high-tech. unsustainable exponential growth & loss of resources, diversity, stability This is where addiction to growth is taking us….!!

time

Seneca Curve – self-regulation

Human Impact on Nature = Population x Wealth x Technology

Impacts on the Natural World

• 1. Climate disruption & sea level rise
• 2. Pollution of air, water and land
• 3. Depletion - fossil energy, minerals. soils,
• 4. Depletion - fisheries, forests, water
• 5. Biodiversity and ecosystem losses -

the planet’s 6th Great Extinction.

• 6. Global epidemics of disease

How fast is the Great Acceleration in the Anthropocene?

Exponential doubling rates

• 70 divided by the percentage rate
• e.g. Poland’s GDP @ 3% = 23.3 years

Source: IPCC

IPCC REPORT 10/18 (De-growth required)

By 2030:

• CO2 emissions down 55% for 1.5C target

(Holocene 275 ppm; Now 412 ppm)

• Coal use almost zero
• Land energy crops up by 2.7 million square

miles OR

• Sea level rise
• Ocean temperature + acidity increase
• Crop production (rice, maize, wheat) down

NOAA – effects on ocean irreversible for 1000 years, even with zero CO2 emissions

On track for 2100?

The Earth is (over)full

Ecological footprint Ecological footprint overshoot

• vershoot

201 2017 7 OVERSHOT OVERSHOT

• MAX. CAPACITY
• MAX. CAPACITY

1970 1750

Energy for the Machine World

Primary Energy World Consumption (millions of tonnes oil equivalent)

Expansion of human societies

• In the next 14 years 1 billion extra

humans

• Every day 228000 more humans born

than die.

• Every minute 150+ additional people

require energy, water, food, and space

• n the finite planet

Expansion of Mobility

Expansion of road vehicles

• 1970 250,000,000
• 2016 1,200,000,000
• 2050 2,500,000,000 (10x since 1970)

Unintended consequences?

The Anthropocene ‘double bind’ Humanity’s existential dilemma

EITHER Keep ‘developing’ and destroy the Earth,

• ur offspring and even ourselves

OR Reverse economic development (growth) & exponential human impact BUT face poverty, hunger & uncertainty

5 Stages of Collapse

The likely sequence of collapses:

• 1. Financial
• 2. Commercial
• 3. Political
• 4. Social
• 5. Cultural

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

2. Challenge for Activists

Prospect for action?

Why activists have little effect

• They cannot articulate alternatives
• They do not control the levers of power

& ‘manufactured consent’

• There is no ‘re-set button’ for transition
• Human addictive appetite fed by the

Machine World (culture of consumption)

• Human agency too weak to shift

structures & systems of dominance (inertia)

Barriers to transition to Machine & Nature equilibrium

Worldviews: ‘story’, existential beliefs (drive for ‘expansion’; ‘Homo Deus’ anthropocentric technophilia & hubris) Leadership: (self-serving power & control) Followership: – distraction, delusion & denial – addiction to ‘more & more’ Huge inequalities: of wealth & power Scale & Rate: e.g. Zero CO2+ by 2050?

Consumer Addiction & Obesity

Two ‘development’ delusions

• The radical TECHNOFIX DELUSION

believes that technology and human ingenuity will prevent catastrophe.

• The GREEN DELUSION believes that

humans can voluntarily downsize & simplify and desire less of everything

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120615-global-tipping-point

Strategies for the Titanic: Denial, Distraction, Action?

• 1. Deny that it is happening?
• 2. Distract yourself & have fun?
• 3. Organise urgent action? Personal

lifestyle, professional work, community & mass movement action, political

• engagement. Learn-Share-Act

Keep on keeping on – like Greta Thunberg!

What can (and can’t) we do?

http://case4all.org/what-can-we-do Strategies:

• 1. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
• 2. MASS MOBILISATION
• 3. PERSONAL & COMMUNITY ‘

GLOCAL’ ACTION

Transition Story: good intentions

SiBG action

• Biochar project –
• rganic soils from waste

recycling for CO2 capture + chemical-free fertility

• Fast tree project - sequestration + timber
• Traditional seed banks & plant

conservation

• Ecological education + outreach program
• www.case4all.org –

community action blog & resource platform

Re-define ‘progress’

from WITHOUT LIMITS: (Exponential human impact)

to WITHIN LIMITS: (Long-term equilibrium) Global Transformation to “ “Cooperative Cooperative self-limitation”

It’s Our Future!

Supplementary Slides

World energy to increase 56% by 2040 (US AIE prediction)

System transition?

Attack the causes … (“elephant in the room”) = Expansionist infinite growth based on GDP + definition of ‘progress’ by elites & consumers

• f the symptoms? (“hockey sticks”) = all other

exponential human impacts are symptoms

• Economics – redistributive circular
• Ecological footprint - within nature’

s limits

• Equilibrium - global population 2 billion
• Economic fairness - redistribution of wealth
• Expectations –

sufficient is enough

• STATE/PRIVATE? TOP-DOWN/MASS MOVEMENT?

The Unstable ‘Machine World’

1. Global debt-based financial system instability 2. Dependence on fossil energy-based growth 3. Increasing inequality in wealth & poverty 4. Illegal migration & criminal global trafficking 5. Regional ethnic, resource & religious conflicts 6. Nuclear weapons proliferation 7. Terrorism 8. Urbanization & mega-cities (35>10 million) 9. Cyber-warfare and internet fragility

• 10. Uncontrolled artificial intelligence (AI)
• 11. Genetic engineering unpredicted effects
• 12. Egocentric & predatory political leaders

Long Long-

• term transitions

term transitions

1.

• 1. ‘

‘ Cowboy Story Cowboy Story’ ’

• ‘

‘Spaceship Earth Story Spaceship Earth Story’ ’ 2.

• 2. reduce

reduce & & stabili stabilis se the human population e the human population 3.

• 3. economic growth

economic growth steady steady-

• state economy

state economy 4.

• 4. anthropo

anthropo/EGO /EGO-

• centrism

centrism ECO ECO-

• centrism

centrism 5.

• 5. regulate and

regulate and tax (shell companies) tax (shell companies) 6.

• 6. tax resource use & waste (inherent greed)

tax resource use & waste (inherent greed) 7.

• 7. preserve habitat

preserve habitat for for all all species species 8.

• 8. empower women

empower women 9.

• 9. act locally; think globally

act locally; think globally

Renewable Energy Consumption

Million tonnes oil equivalent % generation by region

Perspective of a Polish Politician

• Change human to horse? Shifting mentality is that hard!
• You come from outside to take away what we have got (coal) to give

us what you have (oil, gas, renewables)

• You expect us to create and deal with social problems arising
• We will have to depend on Russia or Middle East for energy
• Coal waste is better than nuclear waste
• Solar needs more sunshine than we get
• We are short of water & wind for making electricity
• Wind and hydro are ecologically damaging
• COMMUNISM FAILED SO WE GOT CONSUMER CAPITALISM

(300 YEARS OF GREED, DISHONESTY, COMPETITION TO CONSUME IS NOW SOCIALISED & EMBEDDED)

• DEBT IS GROWING AND WE MUST GROW TO PAY IT OFF

REDUCING DEMAND IS THE ONLY WAY

Re-framing Human Nature?

• Acquisition of Power & Wealth >

Altruism

• Psychological denial or ‘

disavowal’ > Accepting & Acting upon reality

• Trapped in the Here & Now >

Focused on the Future

• Preference for the Status Quo (Inertia) >

Desire for Radical Action

A Great (Humane) Transition?

• A new sustainability story for equilibrium between the

Machine & Natural Worlds?

• Change in consciousness? e.g. abolition of slavery
• The problem of “WE” - Global governance
• Social democracy to replace oligarchy?
• Wellbeing = Planet > People > Profit?
• Structural transformation & mass mobilisation?
• Violent revolution cannot be controlled.
• Demonstrations for clear no-growth alternative –

e.g. Abolition of Growth Economics and Carbon (as with Slavery?) enforces equilibrium?

Hydro electricity consumption (millions of tonnes oil equivalent)

Global Nuclear Energy Consumption (million tonnes oil equivalent)

Global Petroleum (millions of barrels per day) Production Consumption

Global Natural Gas (billions of cubic metres) Production Consumption

Global coal (millions of tonnes oil equivalent) Production Consumption

BBC Summary for COP24

• 1. The world has been getting hotter each

year

• 2. The year 2018 set all sorts of records
• 3. We are not on track to meet climate

change targets

• 4. The biggest emitters are China and the US
• 5. Urban areas are particularly under threat
• 6. Arctic sea ice is also in danger
• 7. We can all do more to help

The Great Transition if Great Disruption is to be avoided

Required is a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorientation of:

• human values,
• equity,
• behavior,
• institutions,
• economies,
• technologies.”

Legacy for a post-collapse society

• ‘Cosmonaut Spaceship Story’ of self-

sufficiency & equilibrium

• no-carbon means no-growth ‘Spaceship

Economy’ (retrieve-reuse-recycle-renew)

• localised, small scale communities based on

permaculture & common ownership

• equitable distribution of power & wealth

“ “Cooperative self Cooperative self-

• limitation

limitation” ”

Machine World Myths

• Earth exists for humans to dominate
• Infinite growth possible on a finite planet
• More (P+A+T) is better than enough
• Monetary value measures well-being
• Inequity, racism, misogyny are endemic
• High-technology is our great hope
• Positive thinking brings success