Projections Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Oct 07, 2022 208 likes •343 views

Projections Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets Rain fall Cattle Herd Significant decline following the drought that ended in 2015 - now rebuilding 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 million head 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.5

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Projections

Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets

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Rain fall

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Cattle Herd – Significant decline following the drought that ended in 2015 - now rebuilding

Source: ABS, MLA estimates 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f million head

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Annual adult cattle slaughter

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f 2019f 2021f

million head

Source: ABS, MLA estimates

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Average carcase weights

240 250 260 270 280 290 300 Kg/head

Source: ABS

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National beef production

0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Million tonnes cwt

Beef and veal production Source: ABS, MLA estimates

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Australian beef exports

20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 ‘000 tonnes swt Forecast Frozen (LHS) Chilled (LHS) % Chilled (RHS)

Source: DAWR

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Australian sheep flock

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Million head

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

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Annual sheep slaughter – 6 million

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Million head Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

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Annual lamb slaughter

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Million head

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

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Australian lamb production

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 100 200 300 400 500 600 Kg/head ‘000 tonnes cwt Production (LHS) Carcase weight (RHS)

Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

492,800 tonnes (swt)

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Australian lamb exports

50 100 150 200 250 300 ‘000 tonnes swt Forecast Other Middle East US China

Source: DAWR