Projections Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Projections Michael Finucan, General Manager International Markets

Rain fall

Cattle Herd – Significant decline following the drought that ended in 2015 - now rebuilding 30.0 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 million head 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f Source: ABS, MLA estimates

Annual adult cattle slaughter 11 10 9 million head 8 7 6 5 4 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f 2019f 2021f Source: ABS, MLA estimates

Average carcase weights 300 290 280 Kg/head 270 260 250 240 Source: ABS

Source: ABS, MLA estimates National beef production Million tonnes cwt 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Beef and veal production 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Australian beef exports 1,400 32% ‘000 tonnes swt 1,200 30% 1,000 28% 800 Forecast 26% Frozen (LHS) 600 Chilled (LHS) 24% 400 % Chilled (RHS) 22% 200 0 20% Source: DAWR

Australian sheep flock 130 Million head 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

Annual sheep slaughter – 6 million 18 Million head 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

Annual lamb slaughter 26 24 22 20 Million head 18 16 14 12 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

492,800 Australian lamb production tonnes (swt) -2% 600 23 Production (LHS) Carcase weight (RHS) 500 22 ‘000 tonnes cwt 400 21 Kg/head 300 20 200 19 100 18 0 17 Source: ABS, MLA forecasts

Australian lamb exports 300 ‘000 tonnes swt 250 200 Forecast Other 150 Middle East 100 US China 50 0 Source: DAWR