Products: Trends and Changes Dmitry Prikhodko Economist Investment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Consumption of Food and Agricultural Products: Trends and Changes

Dmitry Prikhodko

Economist Investment Centre Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

World food consumption is growing

+10%

2600 2650 2700 2750 2800 2850 2900

World Food Energy Consumption (kcal/cap/day, 1993-2013)

Source: FAOSTAT

The global food availability gap is closing

+4% +20%

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Per capita daily calorie supply in the EU and LDCs (Least Developed Countries), 1993-2013

EU LDC

Source: FAOSTAT

The difference in per capita food consumption between developed and developing countries is diminishing.

Drivers of change:

Population growth Income growth

+28%

+14%

+4%

+4%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2018 2028

Billions

Projected population increase (2018-2028) by country income level

High-income countries Upper-middle-income countries Lower-middle-income countries Low-income countries 7.6 .6 bil billion

• n

8.4 bi billi lion

• n

1 2 3 4 5 6

1973-1985 1985-1997 1997-2009 2009-2012

%

Compound annual growth rate of national income per capita (%)

Developed World Developing

Source: World Bank Source: UN ESA

Drivers of change: urbanization

+3% +3% +3% +1% +6 +8% +7

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

NORTHERN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE OCEANIA WORLD ASIA AFRICA

Projected 2030 urbanization level by world region (%)

2000 2015 2030

Source: UN ESA

However, consumption growth will slow down

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017

Major regional consumption trends

• Strong increase in meat consumption in

Sub Saharan Africa and South East Asia

• Significant increase in dairy consumption

in South Asia, but also to a lesser extent in North Africa and Southeast Asia

• Significant increase of the human

consumption of cereals in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia

• An increase in maize and protein meal

consumption to meet growing meat demand in East Asia, Southeast Asia and North Africa Source: OECD-FAO Agriultural Outlook, author’s alulatios

World wheat imports: 22 mln tonnes/year by 2026

+32.8 million t (+9%) +6.7 million t (+3%) +6.4 million(+13 %) +3.6 million (+10%) +7 million t (+30%)

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Asia OECD countries North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Sub Saharan Africa

Wheat consumption forecast in select world regions (1000 MT)

2017 2026 +8.8 million t (+12%) +4.5 million t (+15%) +450,000 t (+1%) +6.3 million t (+35%) + 2 million t (+9%) 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Asia North Africa OECD Countries Sub Saharan Africa Latin America and the Caribbean

Wheat imports forecast in select world regions

2017 2026

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Asia: remain the main wheat importing region 1/3 of the increase in import will be accounted for by countries in Sub Saharan Africa

Countries with substantial increase in wheat imports by 2026

Forecast wheat imports in major importing countries in 2026 Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Numbers: projected volume of wheat imports in 2026, mln MT. Colours: projected increase in annual imports from 2017

• Sub-Saharan Africa alone will have to import 6 million tonnes.

Consumption of meat and dairy will increase globally

Pou

• ultry

ry meat consumption: expected increase

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Global consumption is set to increase by 2026: Pou

• ultry

ry +12% Bee Beef +10% Por

• rk

+9% Dair Dairy + 20%

Meat and dairy demand will result in higher maize demand

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook +16% +16% +20% +13% +20 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2017 2026

Millions

Maize animal feed consumption by region (million tonnes), 2017 vs 2026

Asia North America Latin America & Caribbean Europe Africa 580 million T 673 million T

Major maize importers and imports increase (2017 vs 2026)

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Numbers: projected volume

• f maize imports in 2026, mln

MT Colours: projected increase in yearly imports in absolute value.

The example of Indonesia

+12% +17% +33% +11% +30% +30% +20%

10 20 30 40 50 60 Million T Indonesia: Consumption of main food products, 2017-2026 (million tonnes) 2017 2026

+18% +22% +26%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Poultry meat (rtc) Fresh dairy products Beef and veal (cwe) Million T Indonesia: Consumption of meat and fresh dairy products, 2017-2026 (million tonnes) 2017 2026

Meat ad dairy osuptio irease → high igher dem emand for maize and protei ein meals ls.

Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Sur Surplus valu lue Moving Up Up the Valu lue Cha Chain (20 (2018)

Adding value: global trade in processed cereals and oilseeds is growing

+9% +19% 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Milliarden

World Trade: Cereals and Oilseeds vs Processed Products (value in USD billions)

Non-Processed Processed Source: Trade Data Monitor

Processed: milling industry products, pasta, bakery goods, bread, cereal based feed Non Non-processed: wheat, rye, barley, oats, maize, rice, sorghum, buckwheat, millet, soya beans, linseed, rape or colza seed, sunflower seed

World livestock numbers grow, so is processed feed trade

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Millionen

Number of cattle and pigs (million heads)

Cattle Pigs Source: FAOSTAT

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Milliarden

USD value of world cereal and oilseed-based feed exports (USD billions) Source: own calculations based on the Trade Data Monitor

Ukraine: exports of processed cereals and

• ilseeds growing faster than non-processed ones
• 2%

17%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Value in billion USD

Ukraine Exp xports: Ce Cereals and Oils ilseeds vs Processed Products (U (USD bill illions

Non-Processed (value in USD) Processed Source: own calculations based on Trade Data Monitor

…ut there is still a lot of potetial for growth

92% 62% 8% 38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Ukraine World

Share of processed and non-processed grain and oilseeds : Ukraine exports vs World trade (share in %)

Non-Processed Processed Source: Trade Data Moitor, author’s calculations

Poland and Turkey: importing calories, exporting value

+$10 billion net trade balance +$2 billion net trade balance

Source: Global Trade Atlas, FAO and own calculations

Where does Ukraine stand?

36% 25% 11% 6% 2% 1% 19%

Ukraine agri-food exports in 2017 (USD 18 billion)

Cereals Animal Or Vegetable Fats, Oils Etc. & Waxes Oil Seeds Etc.; Misc Grain, Seed, Fruit, Plant Etc Food Industry Residues & Waste; Prep Animal Feed Prep Cereal, Flour, Starch Or Milk; Bakers Wares Milling Products; Malt; Starch; Inulin; Wht Gluten Other

In 2017, almost ¾ of Ukrainian agri-food exports were cereals, oilseeds and vegetable oils. Vegetable oil industry residues usually used as feed (such as oilcakes, pellets, etc.) accounted for 6% of agri-food exports or around USD 1 billion. However, processed cereal products for human consumption remained marginal at 3% or under USD 500 million. Source: Trade Data Monitor

Developing exports of value-added products

ASSO SSOCI CIATI TION «UKRANIAN MILERS»

Thank you!

Dmitry.Prikhodko@fao.org