COP market situation 27/05/09 AGRI C5 Cereals 2 C5-Arable crops - - PDF document

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COP market situation 27/05/09 AGRI C5 Cereals 2 C5-Arable crops - - PDF document

Nov 11, 2022 270 likes •493 views

C5-Arable crops Unit COP market situation 27/05/09 AGRI C5 Cereals 2 C5-Arable crops Unit IGC (world market) 2007/08 2007/08 2008/09 2008/09 2009/10 2009/10 Wheat 2005/06 2006/07 (est) (forecast) (forecast) Production 621 598

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SLIDE 1

COP market situation

AGRI C5

C5-Arable crops Unit 27/05/09

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SLIDE 2

Cereals

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C5-Arable crops Unit

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SLIDE 3

IGC (world market)

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Wheat 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 (est) 2008/09 (forecast) 2009/10 (forecast) Production 621 598 609 688 651 Trade 110 111 110 122 112 Consumption 625 611 614 642 642 Consumption 625 611 614 642 642 Stocks 135 122 116 162 171 5 major exporters 53 38 26 47 53 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Maize 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 (est) 2008/09 (forecast) 2009/10 (forecast) Production 696 708 787 783 778 Trade 79 87 101 79 83 Consumption 700 724 771 773 791 Consumption 700 724 771 773 791 Stocks 132 115 132 142 129 Total cereals 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 (est) 2008/09 (forecast) 2009/10 (forecast) Total cereals 2005/06 2006/07 (est) (forecast) (forecast) Production 1604 1585 1687 1784 1727 Trade 215 222 239 230 221 Consumption 1617 1627 1681 1719 1732 Stocks 319 277 284 349 344

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Stocks 319 277 284 349 344 5 major exporters 143 99 91 122 121

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SLIDE 4

USDA (world market)

WASDE 2009/10 ti t

production use stocks

2009/10 estimates (12 may) Mio t

p h t 657 6 642 8 181 9 wheat 657.6 (was

682.7 last campaign)

642.8 (635.7) 181.9 (167.1) maize 785.1 (787.8) 796.5 (778.6) 128.2 (139.6)

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SLIDE 5

EU cereal prod estimates

Total cereals EU DG AGRI COCERAL Stratégie-Grains 2009 harvest forecasts 289,2 mt 284,4 mt 289,7 mt (May 09) (March 2009) (May 2009) 2008 harvest estimates 311,8 mt (April 2009) 310,6 mt (March 2009) 312,0 mt (May 2009)

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SLIDE 6

EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007 Comparison EU/USA Comparison EU/USA

400 500 R 300 400 SD and EUR 210 153 200 ations in US 153 144 133 100 quota /12/2006 /02/2007 /04/2007 /06/2007 /08/2007 /10/2007 /12/2007 /02/2008 /04/2008 /06/2008 /08/2008 /10/2008 /12/2008 /02/2009 /04/2009 27/12 25/02 26/04 25/06 24/08 23/10 22/12 20/02 20/04 19/06 18/08 17/10 16/12 14/02 15/04

$ US SRW FOB Gulf € US SRW FOB Gulf € Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5% protein) € UK feed FOB

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SLIDE 7

EU Barley prices since 01/01/2007

250 270

Dlvd Rouen feed

210 230 250

FOB UK feed

170 190 210 €/t 134 150 170 112 134 110 130 90

Week 1 Week 5 Week 9 Week 13 Week 17 Week 21 Week 25 Week 29 Week 33 Week 37 Week 41 Week 45 Week 49 Week 1 Week 5 Week 10 Week 14 Week 18 Week 22 Week 26 Week 30 Week 34 Week 38 Week 42 Week 46 Week 50 Week 2 Week 6 Week 10 Week 14 Week 18 7

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SLIDE 8

EU maize prices since 1/4/2007

300 350 /t 200 250 D and EUR/ 146 137 185 150 200

  • ns in USD

137 132 50 100 quotatio 1 / 7 3 / 7 4 / 7 6 / 7 8 / 7 / 7 2 / 7 1 / 8 3 / 8 5 / 8 7 / 8 9 / 8 1 / 8 1 / 9 3 / 9 4 / 9 4 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 2 6 / 4 / 2 1 / 6 / 1 6 / 8 / 1 1 / 1 / 6 / 1 2 / 3 1 / 1 / 2 7 / 3 / 2 2 / 5 / 1 7 / 7 / 1 1 / 9 / 6 / 1 1 / 8 / 1 / 6 / 3 / 2 9 / 4 / Bordeaux (FR) Budapest (HU) USYC Gulf FOB eur USYC Gulf FOB $

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SLIDE 9

Oilseeds and protein crops

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C5-Arable crops Unit

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SLIDE 10

Composition of EU protein feed demand 2007 2008 feed demand, 2007-2008

2007/08 protein content

Field Beans + Lupins; DDGS; 1,5% Dry Fodder; 3,5% Corn Gluten Feed; 2,5% 0,5% Field Peas; 1,0% DDGS; 1,5% Palm Kernel; 2,0% Other oilseeds; 1,2% Sunflower; 5,3% Rapeseed; 15,5% Meal soybean; 67,1%

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SLIDE 11

Evolution of protein products consumption consumption

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/ / /

30 35 million T

1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02

25 30

1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

15 20 10 15 5

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Meal soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Kernel Field Peas Field Beans Lupins DDGS Corn Gluten F d

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Soybean meal y

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 10.762 11.500 11.816 11.198 I t t UE 23 746 23 443 24 720 23 850 Imports extra-UE 23.746 23.443 24.720 23.850 Exports extra-UE 678 525 362 346 Consumption 33.821 34.409 36.144 34.700 Balance

  • 23 068
  • 22 918
  • 24 358
  • 23 504

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Balance 23.068 22.918 24.358 23.504

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SLIDE 13

Rapeseed meal p

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 8571 9341 10743 11262 Imports extra-UE 100 114 115 127 Exports extra-UE 46 80 179 203 p Consumption 8611 9371 10680 10840 Balance

  • 54
  • 34

64 76

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Balance 54 34 64 76

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SLIDE 14

Sunflower meal

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09F Production 2.758 2.855 2.242 2797 Imports extra-UE 1.985 1.831 1.587 2000 Exports extra-UE 204 148 58 127 Consumption 4.539 4.538 3.771 4670 Balance

  • 1781
  • 1683
  • 1529
  • 1873

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Origins of EU meal import 2007/08 (000 t) import 2007/08 (000 t)

30.000 n d s 25.000 T h o u s a n

Brazil

20.000 15.000

Argentina

10.000

Argentina, Ukraine, Russia

5.000

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Soymeal Sunseed meal Rapemeal C5-Arable crops Unit

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SLIDE 16

Oilseed prices 1996-2009 (US $/t cif EU ports) (US $/t, cif EU ports)

1200

So beans Bra ilian cif Rotterdam

1000

Soybeans, Brazilian, cif Rotterdam Sunseed, EU, cif Amsterdam

800

Rapeseed, 00, Europe, cif Hamburg

600 350 200 400 380 415 200

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C5-Arable crops Unit

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SLIDE 17

Rapeseed/wheat price ratio (MATIF) price ratio (MATIF)

2,6 2,4 2,05 2,0 2,2

wheat price

1,8

Rapeseed price / w

1,4 1,6 1,2 1,4

3/01/2005 3/01/2006 3/01/2007 3/01/2008 3/01/2009

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SLIDE 18

Evolution of oilseeds meal prices meal prices

400 300 350

347 €/t

250

180 €/t 317 €/t

150 200

€/t 180 €/t

50 100

COLZA Départ usine ROUEN

132 €/t

50 7 / 2 8 7 / 2 8 7 / 2 8 8 / 2 8 8 / 2 8 9 / 2 8 9 / 2 8 / 2 8 / 2 8 / 2 8 / 2 8 2 / 2 8 2 / 2 8 / 2 9 / 2 9 / 2 9 2 / 2 9 2 / 2 9 3 / 2 9 3 / 2 9 4 / 2 9 4 / 2 9 5 / 2 9

p TSOL Départ usine BORDEAUX/SETE SOJA Disponible LORIENT SOJA 48% BRESIL CAF ROTT.

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3 / 7 / 2 1 7 / 7 / 2 3 1 / 7 / 2 1 4 / 8 / 2 2 8 / 8 / 2 1 1 / 9 / 2 2 5 / 9 / 2 9 / 1 / 2 2 3 / 1 / 2 6 / 1 1 / 2 2 / 1 1 / 2 4 / 1 2 / 2 1 8 / 1 2 / 2 1 / 1 / 2 1 5 / 1 / 2 2 9 / 1 / 2 1 2 / 2 / 2 2 6 / 2 / 2 1 2 / 3 / 2 2 6 / 3 / 2 9 / 4 / 2 2 3 / 4 / 2 7 / 5 / 2

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SLIDE 19

Pea, wheat and soybean meal prices 2004-2009 meal prices 2004-2009

400 €/t 330 350

Soybeans meal

Field peas

300

Field peas

250 194 200 146 150 Feed wheat

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C5-Arable crops Unit

100 juil-04 janv-05 juil-05 janv-06 juil-06 janv-07 juil-07 janv-08 juil-08 janv-09

Source : UNIP

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SLIDE 20

Prices

600 500 Corn Gluten 400 ton Corn Gluten 200 300 $ per 100 Distillers' dried

t-00 r-01 n-01 t-01 r-02 n-02 t-02 r-03 n-03 t-03 r-04 n-04 t-04 r-05 n-05 t-05 r-06 n-06 t-06 r-07 n-07 t-07 r-08

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SLIDE 21

Thank you for your attention

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C5-Arable crops Unit