Production systems for the future: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Production systems for the future:
Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
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GHI GAP Report 2011
'2 Sub-Saharan African countries The ‘livestock revolution’: as people get richer they consume more meat
Urbanization
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But livestock productivity stagnating…
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Productivity (kg/TLU) Time
meat productivity
East Asia South Asia Africa
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Productivity (kg/TLU) Time
milk productivity
East Asia South Asia Africa
Huge resource use implications!
Livestock production systems in Sub-Saharan Africa - Robinson et al 2011 (FAO/ILRI)
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Integrated mixed crop-livestock systems 60% of livestock production in SSA
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Feed/land use intensities: key driver for the efficiency of the livestock sector (Herrero et al. PNAS forthcoming)
Global milk production
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Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.
Growth Rates (%/Y) of Meat Production in Different Production Systems in Developing Countries
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Asia SSA WANA CSA grazing systems mixed systems industrial systems
rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total % AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total % AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Increased consumption Increased incomes …but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc) Some industrialisation…. Herrero et al 2009
rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….(2)
Increased consumption Increased incomes …but increased pressure on grains…increase in prices?
Annual rates of change - pork production
2 4 6 8 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total % AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - poultry production
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total % AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
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> SOFA 2009
Steinfeld et al. (2006) $/'//
Production fertilisants N Energie fossile ferme Déforestation Sol cultivé Désertification pâturages Transformation Transport Fermentation ruminale Effluents, stockage/traitement Epandage fertilisants N Production légumineuses Effluents, stockage/traitement Effluents, épandage/dépôt Effluents, emission indirecte
CO2 CH4 N2O
Deforestation Enteric fermentation
Chemical N. fert. production On-farm fossil fuel Deforestation OM release from ag. soils Pasture degradation Processing fossil fuel Transport fossil fuel Enteric fermentation Manure storage / processing N fertilization Legume production Manure storage / processing Manure spreading / dropping Manu indirect emissions
GHG emissions from livestock (FAO 2006
Prepared by Bonneau, 2008
SS Africa– Greenhouse gas emissions 2004 (Long Shadow 2006) Less than 15% of global livestock emissions = approx 5% global GHG emissions
methane enteric methane manure N2O manure
methane enteric
Ruminants Monogastrics
Total emissions methane from manure
ruminants monogastrics
N2O manure
ruminants monogastrics
Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large ineficiencies in the developing world – an opportunity?
Africa - Shifts in methane production as systems evolve to 2030 important to evaluate mitigation strategies
top 20 methane emitters (million kg) - 2000
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Ethiopia MRT Sudan LGA Sudan MRA Nigeria MRA Tanzania MRA Ethiopia MRA Kenya MRT South Africa LGA Madagascar LGA Somalia LGA Burkina Faso MRA Tanzania MRH Nigeria MRH South Africa LGT Kenya LGA Mali MRA Uganda MRH Zimbabwe MRA South Africa MRA Ethiopia LGA
top 20 methane emitters (million kg) - 2030
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Sudan MRA Nigeria MRA Sudan LGA Ethiopia MRT Ethiopia MRA Tanzania MRA Burkina Faso MRA Nigeria MRH Uganda MRH Mali MRA Swaziland LGA Madagascar LGA Botswana LGA Uganda MRA Madagascar MRA Kenya MRT Ethiopia MRH Mali LGA Ethiopia LGA Chad MRA
Herrrero et al 2008
Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein Herrero et al (PNAS forthcoming)
What role for rangelands?
Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002) Largest land use system Increasingly fragmented Potentially a large C sink PES: an important income diversification source Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Dealing with mobile pastoralists
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