Priced Out Rent Affordability and Homelessness in Los Angeles - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Priced Out Rent Affordability and Homelessness in Los Angeles - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Priced Out Rent Affordability and Homelessness in Los Angeles Alexander Casey, Zillow Policy Advisor Rental values on a steady rise 2 #HousinginAmerica In many ZIP codes, rents are rising alongside national pace during the past five years 3


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Priced Out

Rent Affordability and Homelessness in Los Angeles

Alexander Casey, Zillow Policy Advisor

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#HousinginAmerica 2

Rental values on a steady rise

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#HousinginAmerica 3

In many ZIP codes, rents are rising alongside national pace during the past five years

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#HousinginAmerica 4

But across most of the region, rental prices have significantly outpaced the nation

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#HousinginAmerica 5

And in some areas, rent prices have surged over the past five years

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#HousinginAmerica 6

Pockets of exceptionally hot rent appreciation within Los Angeles

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#HousinginAmerica 7

Small spaces and high costs the norm for Los Angeles

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#HousinginAmerica 8

Share of median income required to rent typical home in Los Angeles Metro on the rise

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#HousinginAmerica 9

Share of tiered income required to rent home tiers, Los Angeles metro

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#HousinginAmerica 10

High incomes don’t fully cover for high burdens

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How We Got Here

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#HousinginAmerica 12

Job growth rising steady keeping pace with nation

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#HousinginAmerica 13

But wages have grown much faster in Los Angeles County

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#HousinginAmerica 14

For nearly a decade LA mostly added renters

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#HousinginAmerica 15

In many high-priced metros, significantly more new jobs came to town than new housing units were built

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#HousinginAmerica 16

Cities with the most land use restrictions see their home values grow faster when new jobs come to town

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Impact of Deteriorating Affordability

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#HousinginAmerica 18

While many areas can swap convenience for affordability, LA renters can find limited relief

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#HousinginAmerica 19

People who live in lower-cost areas of LA report lower levels of satisfaction with the job opportunities and education in their neighborhood

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#HousinginAmerica 20

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#HousinginAmerica 21

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#HousinginAmerica 22

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#HousinginAmerica 23

As the share of income spent on rent has risen in many metros, working age adults have also increasingly doubled up

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#HousinginAmerica 24

As the share of income spent of rent rises, fewer people save any income

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#HousinginAmerica 25

People with higher rent burdens more likely to forgo health expenses

During the past 12 months, was there a time when you needed any of the following but didn’t get it because you couldn’t afford it?

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Findings from:

Inflection Points in Community-Level Homeless Rates

Chris Glynn, Thomas H. Byrne, and Dennis P. Culhane

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#HousinginAmerica 27

Rental values have been rising at a steady clip

$1,442

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#HousinginAmerica 28

Rental values have been rising at a steady clip

$1,442 $1,859 $2,136 $2,369

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#HousinginAmerica 29

Rental values have been rising at a steady clip

$1,442 $1,859 $2,136 $2,369 $2,756 $3,403

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#HousinginAmerica 30

Nationally, rents are up. Yet homelessness counts have fallen

$1,442 554K

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#HousinginAmerica 31

Modeling for the systemic undercount from PIT estimates

547K Point in time count

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#HousinginAmerica 32

Modeling for the systemic undercount from PIT estimates

547K Point in time count Predicted count 660K

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#HousinginAmerica 33

Los Angeles, a totally different trend

Point in time count Predicted count 73K

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#HousinginAmerica 34

When a community reaches an affordability tipping point, the link between rent burdens and homeless rates grows stronger

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#HousinginAmerica 35

In some places, a median-income renter already pays more than 32% of income to go out and rent the typical home

32%

Los Angeles, CA San Francisco, CA New York, NY Boston, MA Seattle, WA Portland, OR Las Vegas, NV

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#HousinginAmerica 36

Clusters of communities experience similar responses to changing rent prices

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#HousinginAmerica 37

Cluster 3 is home to 15% of the U.S. population and 47% of the homeless population

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#HousinginAmerica 38

If rent affordability worsens in Cluster 3 cities, the model predicts an increasing homelessness count

District of Columbia CoC If share of income needed to rent a home increases…

104

Predicted change in homeless count

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#HousinginAmerica 39

And in Los Angeles this link is even stronger

District of Columbia CoC Los Angeles City & County CoC If share of income needed to rent a home increases…

104 11,591

Predicted change in homeless count

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#HousinginAmerica 40

Clusters 1 and 2 not in the clear

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#HousinginAmerica 41

Potential spillover effects in Riverside

55,188 34,622 2,406 6,203

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#HousinginAmerica 42

Decomposing the components to homelessness

Baltimore City CoC Los Angeles City & County CoC

Hypothetical baseline Estimated homelessness rate

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#HousinginAmerica 42

Decomposing the components to homelessness

Baltimore City CoC Los Angeles City & County CoC

Hypothetical baseline Estimated homelessness rate

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#HousinginAmerica 43

Rising rents can leave even the households who receive assistance few options

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#HousinginAmerica 44

Housing assistance has lagged behind Los Angeles rents

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#HousinginAmerica 45

Rising rents can leave even the households who receive assistance few options

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#HousinginAmerica 46

Los Angeles City & County CoC If share of income needed to rent a home increases…

11,591

Predicted change in homeless count

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Thank You