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July 20, 2017
Preparing to Access the Capital Markets North Caroli lina a Local - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Preparing to Access the Capital Markets North Caroli lina a Local al Government Investment Associa iation July 20, 2017 Member NYSE|FINRA|SIPC Preparing to Access the Capital Markets Overview In todays market environment, credit
Member NYSE|FINRA|SIPC
July 20, 2017
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 1
HIGH GH LEVEL STRATEGY AND P PLANNING DEVELOP PL P PLAN AN OF F FINANCE IMPLEMENT P T PLAN OF F FINANCE
July 20, 2017
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 2
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Perce cent (%)
Cre redit Spreads : 30-Year MMD MMD
AAA BBB
July 20, 2017
Implemented in January 2014
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 3
The information shown above outlines the Quantitative elements of the rating
the ultimate rating outcome.
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Implemented in September 2013
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 4
The information shown above outlines the Quantitative elements of the rating
the ultimate rating outcome.
July 20, 2017
Implemented in December 2014
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 5
The information shown above outlines the Quantitative elements of the rating
the ultimate rating outcome.
July 20, 2017
Implemented in January 2016
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 6
The information shown above outlines the Quantitative elements of the rating methodology. In addition to these factors, other Qualitative elements are considered in the ultimate rating outcome.
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 7
Strat ategic V Vis isio ion
d / Council il C Communic icat atio ion
Imp mproveme ment Pl Plan an
Forecasting
ancial ial Po Polic icie ies
hmark rking
Capacit ity / / Debt A Affordab dabil ilit ity
ding A Approac ach
C Coordin inat atio ion
Group an and F d Fin inancing Sche hedule
Credi dit R Rat atin ing St Strat ategy
st I Issu ssuance
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Admin 10% Police / Sheriff 20% Parks & Recreation 30% Streets & Sidewalks 20% Education 20% 5-Year CIP: U Uses of
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 9
GO Bonds 15% Pay-As-You- Go Capital 10% Grants 40% Capital Reserve Fund 10% Installment Financings 25%
5-Year CIP: Sources of F Funds
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Finalize and Approve CIP Revisit/Refine Project Timing, Amounts and Funding Sources Initial CIP Funding Plan Prioritize Capital Projects Identify Financial Resources Available to Fund Capital Projects Determine Universe of Capital Needs Evaluate Debt Capacity / Affordability
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July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 12
Strat ategic V Vis isio ion
d / Council il C Communic icat atio ion
Imp mproveme ment Pl Plan an
Forecasting
ancial ial Po Polic icie ies
hmark rking
Capacit ity / / Debt A Affordab dabil ilit ity
ding A Approac ach
C Coordin inat atio ion
Group an and F d Fin inancing Sc Schedule
Credi dit R Rat atin ing St Strat ategy
st I Issu ssuance
July 20, 2017
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 13
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unassigned Fund Balance as a % % of E Expenditures
Unassigned Fund Balance as a % of Expenditures Policy
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100 200 300 400 NC 'A' W&S Median NC 'Aa' W&S Median NC 'Aaa'' W&S Median Nat'l 'A' W&S Median Nat'l 'Aa' W&S Median Nat'l 'Aaa' W&S Median Percent
Water r and Sewer r Unre restri ricted Cash h as a % of O O&M
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 14
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 NC 'A' Counties Median NC 'Aa' Counties Median NC 'Aaa' Counties Median Nat'l 'A' Counties Median Nat'l 'Aa' Counties Median Nat'l 'Aaa' Counties Median Percent
Unassigned G General Fund B Balance a as a % of
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North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 15
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Debt to A Ass ssesse ssed Value
Debt to Assessed Value Policy 0.00x 1.00x 2.00x 3.00x 4.00x 5.00x 6.00x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Debt S Serv rvice C Covera rage
Debt Service Coverage Rate Covenant
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North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 16
10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Milli lions
Declin ine i in D Debt Servic ice
Existing Debt Service Cumulative Decline 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Milli lions
Utility Revenues vs. Expenditures
Operating Expense Debt Service Revenue
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 17
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 18
Strat ategic V Vis isio ion
d / Council il C Communic icat atio ion
Imp mproveme ment Pl Plan an
Forecasting
ancial ial Po Polic icie ies
hmark rking
Capacit ity / / Debt A Affordab dabil ilit ity
ding A Approac ach
C Coordin inat atio ion
Group an and F d Fin inancing Sc Schedule
Credi dit R Rat atin ing St Strat ategy
st I Issu ssuance
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 19
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 20
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 21
Preli liminar ary I Internal C al Credit A Assessment a and Scor
Method
– Conduct an internal credit review evaluating various financial, demographic, and economic factors. – Identify credit strengths and challenges. – Develop a peer comparative group. – Utilize internal rating scorecard models to replicate the rating agencies’ quantitative approach. Develop lopment o
Presentat ation
– Develop a detailed credit presentation to serve as a guide for discussion. – Highlight areas of credit strengths and initiatives implemented to offset credit challenges. – Provide rating analysts with key information to conduct quantitative analysis. – Offer perspective for rating analysts that may result in qualitative adjustments that could otherwise go unnoticed. Rating I Interaction
– Determine preferred rating interaction strategy (i.e. rating calls, site visits, or rating meetings). – Prepare Staff / Officials for rating interactions. – Coordinate logistics of the rating interaction. – Utilize confidential / indicative credit rating strategies when available and appropriate. Follo low Up Up: – Address immediate analyst questions and observations prior to receipt of ratings. – Coordinate review and publishing of formal credit rating reports. – Continue to develop relationship with rating analyst through regular communication. – Prepare for periodic rating surveillance. An effective rat ating age genc ncy strateg egy will ll assist the he ratin ing an analy lysts with their cr credit an analy lysis suc uch that they are both better info formed about the he credit st strengths and bet etter er armed ed to to serve ve as as yo your advocate te to to the he rating commi mittee.
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July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 23
July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 24
Strat ategic V Vis isio ion
d / Council il C Communic icat atio ion
Imp mproveme ment Pl Plan an
Forecasting
ancial ial Po Polic icie ies
hmark rking
Capacit ity / / Debt A Affordab dabil ilit ity
ding A Approac ach
C Coordin inat atio ion
Group an and F d Fin inancing Sc Schedule
Credi dit R Rat atin ing St Strat ategy
st I Issu ssuance
Richmond Office
One James Center 901 East Cary Street 11th Floor Richmond, VA 23219
Charlotte Office
Independence Center 101 N. Tryon Street Suite 1220 Charlotte, NC 28246
Raleigh Office
Glenwood Plaza 36905 Glenwood Ave. Suite 390 Raleigh, NC 27612
July 20, 2017
Ted Cole
Senior Vice President 804-697-2907 tcole@investdavenport.com
Mitch Brigulio
Senior Vice President 704-644-5414 mbrigulio@investdavenport.com
Chazzo Habliston
Associate Vice President 704-644-5413 chabliston@investdavenport.com
North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 25
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) has clarified that a broker, dealer or municipal securities dealer engaging in municipal advisory activities outside the scope of underwriting a particular issuance of municipal securities should be subject to municipal advisor registration. Davenport & Company LLC (“Davenport”) has registered as a municipal advisor with the SEC. As a registered municipal advisor Davenport may provide advice to a municipal entity or obligated person. An obligated person is an entity other than a municipal entity, such as a not for profit corporation, that has commenced an application or negotiation with an entity to issue municipal securities on its behalf and for which it will provide support. If and when an issuer engages Davenport to provide financial advisory or consultant services with respect to the issuance of municipal securities, Davenport is obligated to evidence such a financial advisory relationship with a written agreement. When acting as a registered municipal advisor Davenport is a fiduciary required by federal law to act in the best interest of a municipal entity without regard to its own financial or other interests. Davenport is not a fiduciary when it acts as a registered investment advisor, when advising an obligated person, or when acting as an underwriter, though it is required to deal fairly with such persons. This material was prepared by public finance, or other non-research personnel of Davenport. This material was not produced by a research analyst, although it may refer to a Davenport research analyst or research report. Unless otherwise indicated, these views (if any) are the author’s and may differ from those of the Davenport fixed income or research department or others in the firm. Davenport may perform or seek to perform financial advisory services for the issuers of the securities and instruments mentioned herein. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security/instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant had completed its own independent investigation of the securities, instruments or transactions and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any offering circular or memorandum describing such security or instrument. That information would contain material information not contained herein and to which prospective participants are
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July 20, 2017 North Carolina Local Government Investment Association 26