Preliminary Louisiana 2018 Employment Industry Forecast Division - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Preliminary Louisiana 2018 Employment Industry Forecast

Louisiana Workforce Commission Division of Economic Development Louisiana State University

Methodology

• Baseline statistical model using the MicroMatrix

software and historical data (846 regional industry forecasts)

• Review statistical forecasts

– Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments – Incorporate economic development projects and major announcements – Led to 223 changes

• Assess growth rates by region and industry

Louisiana Driver Firms Driver Firms Included in Analysis Number of firms 153 143 Direct Employment 157,291 149,945 Total LA Jobs Created 468,326 440,000 Direct Wages $2.4 billion $2.3 billion Total LA Sales Created $36.6 billion $ 35.2 billion

Driver Firms

Region 1 (New Orleans) NAICS 511: Publishing Industries

Region 1 (New Orleans) NAICS 622: Hospitals

Region 2 (Baton Rouge) NAICS 325: Chemical Manufacturing

Region 2 (Baton Rouge) NAICS 722: Food Services and Drinking Places

Region 3 (Houma) NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 4 (Lafayette) NAICS 446: Health and Personal Care Stores

Region 4 (Lafayette) NAICS 713:

Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation

Region 5 (Lake Charles) NAICS 332: Fabricated Metal Manufacturing

Region 5 (Lake Charles) NAICS 721: Accommodation

Region 6 (Alexandria) NAICS 221: Utilities

Region 6 (Alexandria) NAICS 236: Construction Buildings

Region 6 (Alexandria) NAICS 910: Federal Government

Region 7 (Shreveport) NAICS 211: Oil and Gas Extraction

Region 7 (Shreveport) NAICS 486: Pipeline Transportation

Region 7 (Shreveport) NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Region 8 (Monroe) NAICS 311: Food Manufacturing

Region 8 (Monroe) NAICS 336:

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

Implied Annual Growth Rates by RLMA

Preliminary Recommended Historical Data Statistical Adjusted Forecast Forecast 1990-2004 1994-2004 1998-2008 1: New Orleans 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6%

• 1.5%

2: Baton Rouge 0.8% 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 3: Houma 1.3% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 4: Lafayette 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 5: Lake Charles 0.3% 0.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 6: Alexandria 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 7: Shreveport 0.5% 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 8: Monroe 0.6% 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% Statewide 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3%

Implied Annual Growth Rates by Industry

Preliminary Recommended Historical Data Statistical Adjusted Industry Sector Forecast Forecast 1994-2004 1998-2008 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

• 2.1%
• 2.0%
• 1.7%
• 2.0%

21: Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0.1% 0.7%

• 0.5%
• 0.3%

22: Utilities

• 1.0%
• 0.3%
• 2.2%

0.1% 23: Construction 0.4%

• 0.2%

1.1% 0.6% 31-33: Other Manufacturing

• 0.2%
• 0.2%
• 1.5%
• 1.9%

324: Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing

• 0.6%
• 0.2%
• 1.8%
• 0.1%

325: Chemical Manufacturing

• 1.7%

0.1%

• 2.1%
• 2.3%

42: Wholesale Trade 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%

• 0.4%

44-45: Retail Trade

• 0.1%

0.4% 0.5%

• 0.1%

48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 51: Information 0.7% 0.5% 2.0% 0.6% 52: Finance and Insurance 0.6% 0.7% 1.6%

• 0.1%

Implied Annual Growth Rates by Industry (Continued)

Preliminary Recommended Historical Data Statistical Adjusted Industry Sector Forecast Forecast 1994-2004 1998-2008 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1.6% 1.3% 2.7% 2.8% 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises

• 0.8%

0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 56: Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 0.6% 0.8% 2.6% 1.5% 61: Educational Services 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 62: Health Care and Social Assistance 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

• 0.7%

0.3% 3.8%

• 1.3%

72: Accommodation and Food Services 0.7% 1.6% 2.9% 1.1% 81: Other Services (except Public Administration) 0.9% 0.9% 1.3%

• 0.5%

91: Federal Government 0.7% 1.3%

• 1.0%

1.4% 92: State Government 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%

• 0.2%

93: Local Government 0.4% 0.7% 2.1% 0.9%

Summary

• Recommended changes raise statewide

employment growth forecast from 0.6% annually to 0.8%.

• This compares to annual growth rates of

– 1.0% nationally for 2008-2018 – 1.1% statewide for 1994-2004 – 1.7% statewide for 2006-2016