Potential Precursors to Airport Surface Movement Incidents Timothy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Potential Precursors to Airport Surface Movement Incidents

Timothy Waldron, C.J. Knickerbocker, Benjamin S. Levy - Sensis Corporation*

• Dr. Sherry Borener - FAA ASA-300

*Sensis staff are working under subcontract to

the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

• Study Background and Goals

Airport Surface Safety remains a serious concern

– Runway incursions and excursions – Ramp and taxiway activity

Airport Surface Detection Equipment – Model X (ASDE-X)

(FAA’s A-SMGCS system, now operational at 20+ US airports) shows airport activity in new detail

Specific problem: Combine ASDE-X surveillance with other data

sources to make case for operational benefits of cockpit displays such as CDTI (Cockpit Display of Traffic Information)

Presentation describes study approach and preliminary results

• Movement Anomalies: Events and Patterns

Event/Pattern Name and Characteristics Potential relevance to enhanced cockpit displays Sudden Stop Deceleration that is stronger than usual for aircraft activity and conditions (event) Possible symptom of disorientation (for example, abrupt stop at hold line) or limited awareness of relevant traffic Irregular Turn Hesitation or overshoot at intersection (event) Exclude “hesitation” that represents yield of right of way to traffic Route Excursion Sustained departure from normal path (event) Depends on ability to characterize normal path and discount routine alterations Slow Taxi Low average speed while moving (pattern) Exclude holds and intervals when closely following traffic

• Using Acceleration Estimates

to Classify Maneuvers

VELOCITYVECTOR STOPor CREEP SLOW& TURN SLOW& TURN SPEED UP SLOWING TURNING STEADY LONGITUDINAL (ALIGNEDWITHVELOCITY) ACCELERATIONVECTOR LATERAL TURNING

Surveillance sets

bounds on accuracy of estimated velocity and acceleration

Use simple visual

scale to classify maneuvers

Sensitivity thresholds

can be adjusted for accuracy and type of event analyzed

• Analysis Process Overview

Findand Characterize Movements Recorded Surveillance Supplemental DataSources Compareto Expected Behavior Detect Potential Anomalies Analyze Anomalies inContext Evaluate Significance Report Statistics& Excerpts

• Overview of ASDE-X System

Core mission of ASDE-X is to improve safety by giving ATCT:

• Complete real-time description of all airport traffic in coverage:

movement area, ~5 nmi of approach, optionally ramp area

• Conflict alerts from Safety Logic

ASDE-X data is the primary information source for this study

• Types of Supplementary Information

Information Class Sources and Relevance to Study Object Properties (invariant attributes of airport objects) Aircraft registry (owner, aircraft type, dimensions, wake class) Airport vehicle list Environmental conditions Weather Surface friction Visibility Airport configuration Congestion Weather affects visibility, surface friction, workload, landing and takeoff parameters Weather-driven effects (such as temporary closures) may cause clusters of anomalies Planning information Schedule Flight plan transactions Flow restrictions Operations practices Standard taxi routes Surface restrictions (weight, size) De-icing locations Preferred sequencing ATCT procedures Ramp procedures Airline procedures

• Information Sources

• Sudden Stop

With or Without Nearby Traffic

Objective: Detect episodes of unusually strong braking for situation Purpose: Quantify instances of pilot confusion or error that CDTI could prevent Benefits: Reduce fuel use and potentially maintenance costs; improve overall flow

TAXIWAY RUNWAY STRONG BRAKING TAXIWAY RUNWAY STRONG BRAKING Possible Causes: Unaware of Hold Location Uncertain of Clearance Avoiding Conflict (own error or other party’s)

• Irregular Turn

TAXIWAY HESITATION TAXIWAY Possible Causes: Uncertain about Location Uncertain about Route Avoiding Conflict Wary of Unseen Traffic TAXIWAY OVERSHOOT TAXIWAY Possible Causes: Uncertain about Location Uncertain about Route Avoiding Obstruction

Objective: Detect irregular taxi turn (hesitation, overshoot, reversal); relate to possible causes

(complexity of surface geometry, changes from usual routes)

Purpose: Quantify instances of CDTI-preventable pilot confusion or error Benefits: Reduced taxi time, improved flow

• Route Excursion

Route Excursion

defined as sustained deviation from assigned

• r intended spatial route
• n airport surface

Challenge: Finding

excursions without electronic record of assigned routes

Approach: Analyze

route frequency and causes for planned unusual routes

• Simplified Motion Classification Rules

Sample Description VXY m/s |AXY| m/s2 |ΘAV| deg Along m/s2 Stopped or creeping < 0.5 any any any Steady ≥ 0.5 < 0.5 any any Speed up ≥ 0.5 ≥ 0.5 < 30 any Slow down ≥ 0.5 ≥ 0.5 > 150 any Turning ≥ 0.5 ≥ 0.5 30-150 ≥ -0.5 Turning & slowing ≥ 0.5 ≥ 0.5 30-150 < -0.5

• Review Maneuver Classification

VELOCITYVECTOR STOPor CREEP SLOW& TURN SLOW& TURN SPEED UP SLOWING TURNING STEADY LONGITUDINAL (ALIGNEDWITHVELOCITY) ACCELERATIONVECTOR LATERAL TURNING

• Example of Landing and Taxi-in

stop/creep steady speedup slowing turning turnslow

• Example of Landing and Taxi-in

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Landing and Taxi-In (CRJ2) Time (sec) Speed (m/s)

stop/creep steady speedup slowing turning turnslow Slow for intersection 110 120 130 140 150

• 3.5
• 3
• 2.5
• 2
• 1.5
• 1
• 0.5

0.5 Landing Deceleration (CRJ2) Time (sec) Acceleration (m/s2)

Speed and acceleration profile use same maneuver color-coding Example indicates resolution achieved via post-processing (preliminary)

• Example of Taxi-Out with Holds

100 200 300 400 500 600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Taxi-Out with Holds (CRJ2) Time (sec) Speed (m/s) stop/creep steady speedup slowing turning turnslow

• Path of Surface Vehicle

1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Example of Vehicle Maneuvers X Position (m) Y Position (m)

stop/creep steady speedup slowing turning turnslow

strong braking

• Vehicle Braking Event

560 580 600 620 640 660 5 10 15 20 25 Vehicle Speed History (detail) Time (sec) Speed (m/s)

stop/creep steady speedup slowing turning turnslow

strong braking hold

• Variations on Departure Route (2)

• Potential Use of Maneuver-Based Cost Functions

100 200 300 400 500 600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Using Events in Consumption Estimate Time (sec) Speed (m/s) Hold rate Discrete penalty at end of holds Departure Taxi rate Taxi rate

• Questions

Thank You!

Sherry.Borener@faa.gov (202) 493-5630 Timothy.Waldron@sensis.com (315) 445-5826