Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment November 9, 2016 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment November 9, 2016 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Planning for the Future: Status of Enrollment November 9, 2016 1 Discussion Points Enrollment and Demographics Discussion (Part 1) Planning Areas Past Enrollment Baseline Data Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM) Model

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SLIDE 1

Planning for the Future:

Status of Enrollment

November 9, 2016

1

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SLIDE 2

Discussion Points

  • Enrollment and Demographics Discussion (Part 1)
  • Planning Areas
  • Past Enrollment
  • Baseline Data
  • Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM)
  • Model Components
  • Issues and Assumptions
  • Development Discussion (Part 2)
  • What is going on with development
  • Enrollment Projections Discussion (Part 3)
  • District
  • Elementary
  • Secondary
  • Next Steps (Part 4)

2

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VISUALIZING SUCCESS

  • Founded in 2003
  • Professional educational planning firm
  • Expertise in multiple disciplines
  • Over 20 years of planning experience
  • Over 80 years of education experience
  • Over 20 years of GIS experience
  • Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and North Dakota

  • Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

Robert Schwarz CEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP

Planning GIS Analyst Educators

Clay Guthmiller Education Planner Jay Harris Education Planner David Stoakes Education Planner, Ed.D. Susan Swift Education Planner, Ph.D. Tyler Link GIS Analyst Brandon Sylvester GIS Analyst

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SLIDE 4

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SLIDE 5

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SLIDE 6

Bismarck Public School District

  • Administration

County, City & Others

  • Burleigh County
  • City of Bismarck
  • City of Lincoln
  • Census Bureau/ESRI
  • Realtors
  • Developers
  • Assessor

6

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  • Projected Enrollment will increase over the next

five years to over 14,000 K-12 students (+12.6%)

  • Capacity Challenges:
  • Tweaked out all efficiencies of available capacity
  • Elementary: within 200 students district-wide elementary capacity - some schools will

have challenges (Highland Acres, Liberty, Lincoln, Northridge, Solheim, Sunrise)

  • Middle School: all middle schools beyond capacity
  • High School: over district-wide high school capacity – some schools will have challenges

(Century)

  • Development Continues - The district is likely to

deal with inadequate facility space in locations where the greatest development is slated to happen

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District Map – Zoomed In

  • District Boundary (purple)
  • City Limits (Bismarck and Lincoln)
  • Major Streets
  • Major water features
  • City Boundaries
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High School Attendance Area Map

  • District Boundary (purple)
  • Major Streets
  • Major Parks
  • High School Attendance Areas
  • Legacy High (Yellow)
  • Century High (Green)
  • Bismarck High (Pink)
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Middle School Attendance Area Map

  • District Boundary (purple)
  • Major Streets
  • Major Parks
  • Middle School Attendance Areas
  • Horizon (Yellow)
  • Simle (Green)
  • Wachter (Pink)
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Elementary Attendance Area Map

  • District Boundary (purple)
  • Major Streets
  • Major Parks
  • Elementary Attendance Areas
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Planning Areas

  • By Land Use (Residential, Commercial,

Industrial)

  • By Residential Density (single-family,

mobile, home, duplex, apartments)

  • By Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)
  • By Manmade Features (Railroad and

Streets)

  • By ES Attendance Area
  • By MS Attendance Area
  • By HS Attendance Area
  • Over 900 planning areas
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Planning Area Detail Map

  • Show the power of GIS

information – zoomed into Highland Acres

  • See where students are located

in relation to streets, subdivisions, parcels

  • Illustrates how the planning

areas are tied to the parcel

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SLIDE 14

This is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s reports and maps to better understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.

14 Built-Out Developing

Where:

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  • Cohort Growth
  • External Growth
  • Kindergarten Change
  • Economic Scenarios

County City Attendance Areas

Streets

Development Students & People

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16 Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School Pig in the Snake Effect

  • Largest class in 2016/17 – 3rd grade (1,056)
  • Smallest class in 2016/17 – 12th grade (856)
  • Graduating senior class smaller than the next year incoming Kindergarten class

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2005/06 672 703 760 731 771 732 747 845 791 874 920 904 932 10,382 2006/07 809 722 751 797 775 826 775 798 865 814 869 891 849 10,541 2007/08 769 830 735 773 809 805 841 828 804 893 816 866 865 10,634 2008/09 841 773 834 758 800 815 824 856 835 852 882 806 826 10,702 2009/10 820 820 766 836 750 807 815 837 872 847 810 844 814 10,638 2010/11 850 823 827 780 839 756 806 855 839 909 866 824 878 10,852 2011/12 936 848 850 833 787 851 767 819 837 852 917 854 833 10,984 2012/13 966 969 875 870 852 826 846 803 828 879 878 890 862 11,344 2013/14 1,001 974 991 918 891 864 844 872 806 853 914 877 885 11,690 2014/15 991 1,035 983 1,020 927 916 891 866 888 864 849 923 841 11,994 2015/16 1,003 1,016 1,041 1,018 1,026 941 932 924 899 936 874 868 895 12,373 2016/17 997 1,007 1,008 1,056 1,023 1,034 973 948 940 983 924 894 856 12,643

Source: Bismarck Public School District

Enrollment By Grade

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17 Changes:

  • Largest average class increase – 8th to 9th grade (+63)
  • Largest average class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (-25)
  • Propensity to have cohort increase students from year to year in nearly all grades

Change By Grade from the Previous Year

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2005/06 2006/07 137 50 48 37 44 55 43 51 20 23

  • 5
  • 29
  • 55

2006/07 2007/08

  • 40

21 13 22 12 30 15 53 6 28 2

  • 3
  • 26

2007/08 2008/09 72 4 4 23 27 6 19 15 7 48

  • 11
  • 10
  • 40

2008/09 2009/10

  • 21
  • 21
  • 7

2

  • 8

7 13 16 12

  • 42
  • 38

8 2009/10 2010/11 30 3 7 14 3 6

  • 1

40 2 37 19 14 34 2010/11 2011/12 86

  • 2

27 6 7 12 11 13

  • 18

13 8

  • 12

9 2011/12 2012/13 30 33 27 20 19 39

  • 5

36 9 42 26

  • 27

8 2012/13 2013/14 35 8 22 43 21 12 18 26 3 25 35

  • 1
  • 5

2013/14 2014/15

  • 10

34 9 29 9 25 27 22 16 58

  • 4

9

  • 36

2014/15 2015/16 12 25 6 35 6 14 16 33 33 48 10 19

  • 28

2015/16 2016/17

  • 6

4

  • 8

15 5 8 32 16 16 84

  • 12

20

  • 12

3-Yr Avg

  • 1.3

21.0 2.3 26.3 6.7 15.7 25.0 23.7 21.7 63.3

  • 2.0

16.0

  • 25.3

3-Yr Wavg

  • 0.7

16.0

  • 0.5

24.0 6.0 12.8 25.8 22.7 21.7 67.7

  • 3.3

17.8

  • 21.3

Source: Bismarck Public School District

Enrollment provided by the district – student data is last school day count Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

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In-Migration Map – Zoomed In

  • 2016/17 students who are in 1st through

12th grade that were not attending the district in 2015/16 as kindergarten through 11th grade

  • Who is new to the District that was not

attending the previous year

  • Is it related to a particular type of

Development (SF, MF, Dup)?

  • Is it related to perceptions of a school

building?

  • 2014/15: 1,024 new students
  • 2016/17: 962 new students
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Out-Migration – Zoomed In

  • students attending the district in 2013/14

who were in kindergarten through 11th grade that are not attending in 2014/15 as 1st through 12th grade

  • Who was in the District that is not

attending the current year

  • Is it related to a particular type of

Development (SF, MF, Dup)?

  • Is it related to perceptions of a school

building?

  • 2014/15: 839 students no longer attending
  • 2016/17: 820 students no longer attending
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Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online from Census Data

Known Information

  • Current Enrollment is closing in on 13,000 students
  • New residential permits greater averaging more than 400 units per year
  • 2016 Average Household Size is 2.3
  • 2016 Census Population within Bismarck Public Schools over 90,000 in 2010 under 80,000
  • 2016 Census Female Population over 51%
  • 2016 Census Household Annual Population Rate increase of about 2.4%

Other things to Consider

  • Building Permits – New Residential Development is anticipated to be very vibrant
  • Average Household Size should increase with younger families relocating to Bismarck
  • Younger aged households have a greater propensity for school aged children
  • Economic outlook is anticipated to be very good
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Census Map (Children Ages 0-4 in 2021)

  • Density weighted by land area of each Census

Block Group

  • Dark Red has the greatest density, Light Orange

has the least

  • This data helps benchmark the projection

model choices for future student enrollment

  • Census data underestimates growing areas
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Census Map (Female Ages 15-59 in 2021)

  • Density weighted by land area of each Census

Block Group

  • Dark Red has the greatest density, Light Orange

has the least

  • This data helps benchmark the projection model

choices for future student enrollment

  • Census data underestimates growing areas
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Planning Area Change Map (Count Difference)

  • Depicts student movement at each

Planning Area from 2012/13 to 2016/16

  • Orange areas experienced an increase

since 2012/13

  • Green areas experienced a decrease since

2012/13

  • White areas had no net change of

students between 2012/13 and 2016/17

  • New developments have a greater

propensity to have more students in future years

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Planning Area Change Map (Density)

  • Depicts student movement at each

Planning Area from 2012/13 to 2016/17

  • Enrollment change is weighted by land

area of each Planning Area to show density per square mile

  • Normalizes by the size of the planning

area

  • Orange areas experienced an increase

since 2012/13

  • Green areas experienced a decrease since

2012/13

  • White areas had no net change of

students between 2012/13 and 2016/17

  • Shows change in students relative to land

area

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Student “Heat” Density Map – Zoomed In

  • Shows the number of students in each

Planning Area, normalized by land area

  • Red areas depict highest, gray as lowest

student density

  • Overlapping points (2 or more students)

are handled using a weighting of coincident points

  • Illustrates by student address where

there is the greatest clustering of students

  • This type of analysis can help with

understanding student population and geographic proximity to schools

  • New developments are evident when

comparing 2016/17 to 2012/13

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Part 2: Development Discussion

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Development Trends

Graphic Explanation

  • Census data indicates the area has an increasing population – now over 90,000 people in the district boundary
  • Certificate of Occupancy indicates there has been steady new residential activity – the lower number for 2016 does not reflect all activity
  • Student Enrollment growth has remained positive and steady a bit lower for 2016 than previous years

What Does This Mean

  • The new households moving into the District may start having more children and/or school aged children
  • New infrastructure and financing of it will influence how and where development may happen
  • Older areas of the community are in the subdivision life cycle to generate more children than in the past (housing impact)

Source: Census, Cities of Bismarck, and Lincoln, Bismarck Public School District and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

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Year Built Map – Zoomed In

  • Track trends in new residential

development

  • Strong activity where much in past years

has focused on multi-family

  • 400-600 new units anticipated in 2016
  • How will new development impact

enrollment, school capacities and facility usage?

  • Majority of the units appear to be north
  • f Highway 94, east of River Road and

west of NE Highway 83 as well as:

  • SW: Burleigh and Washington
  • SE: City of Lincoln
  • NE: Near Legacy HS
  • NW: Near Liberty ES
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Future Land Use Plan

  • What type of land uses are being

planned, where and to what extent?

  • Is development changing – will it impact

enrollment and use of facilities?

  • Red/Purple/Pink areas are commercial

and industrial

  • Yellow areas are residential
  • Non-residential use designations follow

major arterial roads and corridors

  • A large majority of future developable

land in the District is designated residential

  • Transportation network and

infrastructure will eventually be extended to support future growth in accordance with the land use plan

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Growth Area Map

  • Will development continue similar to

current rates?

  • What housing products will be built (SF,

MF, smaller or larger)?

  • Will families be able to afford the

available housing stock?

  • Identifies where development activity is

happening (green)

  • Identifies possible areas could develop

(yellow and orange)

  • The market and property owner desire to

build guides the timing of development

  • Other properties not shown might

develop while some shown might not develop

  • Infrastructure Choke Points
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Yield Rates

Graphic Explanation

  • Elementary School yield rates have slightly increased since 2005/06
  • Middle School, High School, and District yield rates similar or slightly lower than 2005/06
  • Overall the district yield rate is lower than it was in 2005/06, this is the influence of new development
  • There are over 8,000 more units than there was in 2005/06
  • Adding more newer housing inventory typically can decrease the yield rate – type of housing must be monitored

Yield Rates School Total Year K-5 6-8 9-12 District Units K-5 6-8 9-12 District 2005/06 4,369 2,383 3,630 10,382 28,019 0.16 0.09 0.13 0.37 2006/07 4,680 2,438 3,423 10,541 28,579 0.16 0.09 0.12 0.37 2007/08 4,721 2,473 3,440 10,634 29,304 0.16 0.08 0.12 0.36 2008/09 4,821 2,515 3,366 10,702 29,970 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.36 2009/10 4,799 2,524 3,315 10,638 30,329 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.35 2010/11 4,875 2,500 3,477 10,852 30,890 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.35 2011/12 5,105 2,423 3,456 10,984 31,463 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.35 2012/13 5,358 2,477 3,509 11,344 32,732 0.16 0.08 0.11 0.35 2013/14 5,639 2,522 3,529 11,690 33,946 0.17 0.07 0.10 0.34 2014/15 5,872 2,645 3,477 11,994 34,948 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.34 2015/16 6,045 2,755 3,573 12,373 35,768 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.35 2016/17 6,125 2,861 3,657 12,643 36,170 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.35 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.35 0.17 0.08 0.10 0.35 Grade Configuration Yield Rate

Source: Bismarck Public Schools, Burleigh County, RSP & Associates

Three Year Average Three Year Weighted Average

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Elementary

  • Projected 6,358
  • Actual 6,125
  • 96.2% Accuracy

Middle School

  • Projected 2,861
  • Actual 2,861
  • 100.0% Accuracy

High School

  • Projected 3,565
  • Actual 3,657
  • 97.5% Accuracy

District

  • Projected 12,785
  • Actual 12,643
  • 98.9% Accuracy

NOTES:

  • Projections evaluated from the 2014/15 RSP forecast (Two years ago)
  • Projected Kdg and Kdg to 1st grade bounce in enrollment did not met expectations resulting in ES projections not meeting expectations
  • Projected 8th to 9th grade cohort has been greater and the typical loss of students through HS did not happen resulting in HS

projections not meeting expectations

  • Economic, development, demographic, and enrollment enrollment trends will change and are factored into future projections
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NOTES:

  • The above enrollment totals are Kdg to 12th grade (ES +6.9%, MS: +18.5%, HS: +23.7%, District : +12.6%)
  • The above numbers are not the Certified Enrollment Count
  • Does not include Home School, Private School, or Parochial School
  • Annual examination of enrollment, demographics, and development trends recommended

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Enrollment will increase from 2016/17 by nearly 13% by 2021/22

Source: Bismarck Public School District and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

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School Student Location 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Centennial ES Res/Att 430 428

Capacity 469

Reside 441 438 419 412 409 417 425 429 420 417 425 433

Grades K-5

Attend 451 446 Grimsrud ES Res/Att 219 225

Capacity 268

Reside 237 246 240 238 250 255 263 241 241 253 258 266

Grades K-5

Attend 234 249 Highland Acres ES Res/Att 140 157

Capacity 134

Reside 153 168 175 181 192 201 207 167 174 185 194 200

Grades K-5

Attend 144 161 Liberty ES Res/Att 561 609

Capacity 625

Reside 568 620 625 652 684 731 793 640 668 700 747 809

Grades K-5

Attend 580 636 Lincoln ES Res/Att 523 569

Capacity 625

Reside 546 591 610 639 641 632 642 594 621 623 614 624

Grades K-5

Attend 529 573 Miller ES Res/Att 364 368

Capacity 536

Reside 385 388 397 396 398 402 411 404 399 401 405 414

Grades K-5

Attend 398 391 Moses ES Res/Att 323 351

Capacity 469

Reside 353 378 386 387 374 379 375 391 390 377 382 378

Grades K-5

Attend 346 381 Murphy ES Res/Att 454 529

Capacity 625

Reside 575 553 575 574 585 594 593 594 591 602 611 610

Grades K-5

Attend 469 570 ELEMENTARY TOTAL

Capacity 6,776

Reside 6,045 6,125 6,182 6,259 6,305 6,407 6,547 6,182 6,259 6,305 6,407 6,547

Grades K-5

Attend 6,045 6,125

Note 7: Capacity numbers for each school provided by the District January 2015 - Saxvik ES Closed in 2015/16

Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment By Student Attendance Future Enrollment By Student Residence

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - November 2016

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student

Exceed Building Target Capacity

Note 2: School Choice Options between Facilities are depicted in the Projections Note 3: PreKindergarten and students utilizing the alternative educational programming are not in the enrollment projections Note 4: Reside is based on the student address Note 5: Attend is based on which facility a student may attend Note 6: Res/Att is are students who reside in the attendance area and attend that facility

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School Student Location 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Myhre ES Res/Att 241 260

Capacity 424

Reside 360 319 345 343 327 328 327 299 303 287 288 287

Grades K-5

Attend 255 279 Northridge ES Res/Att 429 409

Capacity 436

Reside 459 435 436 456 459 464 468 438 452 455 460 464

Grades K-5

Attend 454 431 Pioneer ES Res/Att 230 253

Capacity 290

Reside 256 270 254 246 235 240 236 276 269 258 263 259

Grades K-5

Attend 262 293 Prairie Rose ES Res/Att 167 168

Capacity 201

Reside 168 169 162 155 152 148 145 168 164 161 157 154

Grades K-5

Attend 176 178 Roosevelt ES Res/Att 114 122

Capacity 156

Reside 123 127 132 128 133 138 139 133 134 139 144 145

Grades K-5

Attend 129 133 Saxvik ES Res/Att

Capacity 0

Reside

Grades K-5

Attend 224 Solheim ES Res/Att 483 479

Capacity 581

Reside 500 492 517 545 554 577 602 532 558 567 590 615

Grades K-5

Attend 512 505 Sunrise ES Res/Att 610 634

Capacity 625

Reside 632 661 660 663 665 663 674 639 643 645 643 654

Grades K-5

Attend 624 641 Will Moore ES Res/Att 218 227

Capacity 312

Reside 289 270 249 244 247 238 247 237 232 235 226 235

Grades K-5

Attend 258 258 ELEMENTARY TOTAL

Capacity 6,776

Reside 6,045 6,125 6,182 6,259 6,305 6,407 6,547 6,182 6,259 6,305 6,407 6,547

Grades K-5

Attend 6,045 6,125

Note 7: Capacity numbers for each school provided by the District January 2015 - Saxvik ES Closed in 2015/16

Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment By Student Attendance Future Enrollment By Student Residence

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - November 2016

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student

Exceed Building Target Capacity

Note 2: School Choice Options between Facilities are depicted in the Projections Note 3: PreKindergarten and students utilizing the alternative educational programming are not in the enrollment projections Note 4: Reside is based on the student address Note 5: Attend is based on which facility a student may attend Note 6: Res/Att is are students who reside in the attendance area and attend that facility

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School Student Location 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Horizon Middle Res/Att 913 949

Capacity 900

Reside 938 970 1,055 1,127 1,155 1,127 1,126 1,069 1,138 1,166 1,138 1,137

Grades 6-8

Attend 946 986 Simle Middle Res/Att 825 925

Capacity 850

Reside 859 957 977 1,020 1,014 1,025 1,021 1,038 1,086 1,080 1,091 1,087

Grades 6-8

Attend 950 1,017 Wachter MS Res/Att 832 835

Capacity 900

Reside 958 934 994 1,035 1,151 1,208 1,244 919 958 1,074 1,131 1,167

Grades 6-8

Attend 859 858 Bismarck HS Res/Att 1,060 1,074

Capacity 1,550

Reside 1,197 1,241 1,263 1,333 1,354 1,387 1,465 1,232 1,320 1,337 1,373 1,445

Grades 9-12

Attend 1,301 1,210 Century HS Res/Att 1,065 1,090

Capacity 1,230

Reside 1,204 1,215 1,268 1,307 1,367 1,485 1,545 1,246 1,298 1,358 1,483 1,534

Grades 9-12

Attend 1,342 1,223 Legacy HS Res/Att 675 930

Capacity 1,390

Reside 1,050 1,090 1,142 1,187 1,270 1,327 1,395 1,195 1,209 1,296 1,343 1,426

Grades 9-12

Attend 808 1,113 South Central HS Res/Att 122 111

Capacity 0

Reside 122 111 117 125 119 122 118 117 125 119 122 118

Grades 9-12

Attend 122 111 MIDDLE TOTAL

Capacity 2,650

Reside 2,755 2,861 3,026 3,182 3,320 3,360 3,391 3,026 3,182 3,320 3,360 3,391

Grades 6-8

Attend 2,755 2,861 HIGH TOTAL

Capacity 4,170

Reside 3,451 3,546 3,790 3,952 4,110 4,321 4,523 3,790 3,952 4,110 4,321 4,523

Grades 9-12

Attend 3,451 3,546

Note 7: Capacity numbers for each school provided by the District January 2015 - Saxvik ES Closed in 2015/16

Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment By Student Attendance Future Enrollment By Student Residence

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - November 2016

Exceed Building Target Capacity

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student Note 6: Res/Att is are students who reside in the attendance area and attend that facility Note 3: PreKindergarten and students utilizing the alternative educational programming are not in the enrollment projections Note 2: School Choice Options between Facilities are depicted in the Projections Note 5: Attend is based on which facility a student may attend Note 4: Reside is based on the student address

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Part 4: Next Steps

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Key Considerations

  • Infrastructure choke points are anticipated will be resolved to allow for
  • rderly growth and better connectivity
  • Building Permit activity will be stable between 400 and 700 units annually
  • Multifamily development happens in phases - the next couple of years

should result in many more of these type of developments

  • Future Kdg classes will likely get closer to 1,100 students
  • Economic conditions, development activity, and Kindergarten Roundup are

variables to monitor for how well projections will become reality

  • More School Capacity will be needed over the next 5 years
  • Elementary School within 250 of District-wide Elementary School Capacity
  • Middle School over District-wide Middle School Capacity (>700 students)
  • High School over District-wide High School Capacity (>350 students)

39

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SLIDE 40

Next Steps

  • District administration and the Board of Education further study the enrollment,

demographic, and development information presented

  • Administration continue to examine other utilization opportunities to improve the

student education experiences

  • Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so

they can understand how educational opportunities will support World Class Education

  • Short term: immediate middle school capacity required
  • Mid term: plan for additional high school capacity
  • Long term: plan for additional elementary school capacity

40

Next Steps

Recommend that the District have an extensive Enrollment Analysis performed each year to ensure the best building and staffing decisions can be made, ensuring good stewardship of taxpayer support and student academic achievement

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NOTES

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