PAC Mtg. #3 January 16, 2018
Ag Agenda • Introductions • SASP progress update • Overview of existing policy • Review final airport classifications • Present aviation forecast results • Review system’s current performance • Future performance exercise • Discuss next steps
Overview of Policy
Polic olicy Implica mplications tions • Existing policies affect system development • Analysis of system’s performance and change since last SASP reflect the policies • Future policy recommendations based on evaluation of existing and future system performance and needs
Ma Major Policy Changes (2009-2017) 1. ADOT Aeronautics Division re-organized as a Group under ADOT MPD 2. State Aviation Fund • A.R.S. 42-5353 prohibits municipal taxation on jet fuel in excess of 10 million gallons • A.R.S. 42-6014 requires all revenues generated at airports to be dedicated to air transportation • A.R.S. 28-8345 / A.R.S. 42-5353 (S.B. 1531) changed the distribution of aircraft license (35%) and jet fuel tax (100%) revenues into the State Aviation Fund • Fund now managed by ADOT Financial Management Services (FMS) 3. A.R.S. 28-8202 changed the eligibility criteria for state funding to include Tribal airports 4. Five-Year Airport Development Guidelines • Federal/State/Local (FSL) and Airport Pavement Management System (APMS) grants on-hold through 2019 • State/Local (SL) grants on-hold through 2020 • Airport Loan Program suspended indefinitely
Arizona System Airport Classifications
2017 Methodol 2017 M ethodolog ogy 2017 SASP Criteria ‒ Commercial service, domestic or international / seasonal or year- round ‒ Reliever status ‒ Instrument operations ‒ Operations ‒ Based aircraft ‒ Fuel availability
2017 SASP Update Classification/Role 2008 SASP Role Parameters Typical Characteristics Year-round scheduled commercial service to Commercial Service- International commercial international destinations for people and cargo . service International High levels of activity with many jets and Publicly owned airports multiengine propeller aircraft. which enplane 2,500 or Scheduled commercial service to domestic more passengers annually destinations for people and cargo. May provide and receive scheduled Commercial Service- Domestic commercial seasonal scheduled commercial service to a passenger air service National service limited number of international destinations. Moderate to high levels of activity with jets and multiengine propeller aircraft. Serves to relieve congestion at commercial FAA-designated airports FAA-designated airport that service airports. Supports the national air system Reliever that relieve congestion at a relieves congestion at a and provides access to markets across the U.S. commercial service airport commercial service airport Moderate to high levels of activity with jets and multiengine propeller aircraft. Airports that serve regional economies, connecting to Support regional economies and provides access 250 instrument operations, state and national to markets in Arizona and nearby states. GA-Community 10 based aircraft or 1 economies, and serve all Moderate levels of activity with jets and based jet, and aircraft fuel types of general aviation multiengine propeller aircraft. aircraft Airports that serve a Supplements local economies and provides supplemental role in local 2,500 operations or 10 access to markets in Arizona with limited activity economies, primarily GA-Rural based aircraft and aircraft in nearby states. Moderate to low levels of serving smaller business, fuel activity with few or no jets and multiengine recreational, and personal propeller aircraft. flying Supports local communities by providing general Airports that serve a limited aviation services such as emergency response role in the local economy, All other general aviation services, charter or medical flights, wildland GA-Basic primarily serving airports firefighting, or recreational flying. Low levels of recreational and personal activity primarily composed of single or flying multiengine piston aircraft.
The Arizona airport system is defined as all public-use airports owned by a political subdivision of the state or Tribal government.
Relationship to the NPIAS / 2008 SASP 2017 SASP/NPIAS Relationship 2017 Non-NPIAS Airports Non- Associated FAA 2017 2017 SASP Classification Total NPIAS NPIAS City Airport Identifier SASP Commercial Service- Douglas Cochise College P03 GA-Rural 2 3 0 International Douglas Douglas Municipal DGL GA-Rural Commercial Service- National 9 8 0 Kearny Kearny E67 GA-Basic Reliever 8 8 0 San Luis Rolle Airfield 44A GA-Rural GA-Community 18 18 0 Seligman Seligman P23 GA-Basic GA-Rural 17 14 3 Sells Sells E78 GA-Basic GA-Basic 13 8 5 Superior Superior E81 GA-Basic TOTAL 67 59 8 Tombstone Tombstone P29 GA-Basic Municipal 2017 SASP compared to 2008 SASP Total Role/Classification 2008 SASP 2017 SASP Change Commercial Service- 2 2 International 11 Commercial Service- National 9 9 Reliever 8 8 8 i 6 GA-Community 24 18 i 2 GA-Rural 19 17 h 8 GA-Basic 5 13
Facility and Se Service Objectives • • Not standards or requirements Recommendations of provided services and facilities based on • Minimum levels of development classification Component Airport Criteria General Airfield ARC Runway Surface Runway Length Approach Capability Taxiway Visual Aids Lighting Approach Lighting System Airside Facilities Operations/Maintenance Hangar Hangars Auto Parking Apron Terminal/Pilot's Lounge Services Fixed-base operator (FBO) Aircraft Maintenance Avionics Sales and Service Off-Site Rental Car On-Site Rental Car Restroom Phone U.S. Customs Fuel Deicing Snow Removal Oxygen Weather Reporting Air Taxi/Charter Service Aircraft Rental
Forecasts of Aviation Demand
Elements lements of of For orecas ecasts ts Tas ask • Review of industry trends • Forecast indicators: o Based aircraft o General aviation ops • Comparison of GA activity indicators to Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for NPIAS airports • Utilize TAF for enplanements and commercial activity • Identify design aircraft and operational activity by turbo jet and prop aircraft over 12,500 pounds
Socioeco ocioeconomic nomic Factor actors Population Assuming the nation does not Tourism Age experience another significant recession, projected population and economic Aviation levels should create positive Demand ripple effects in both commercial service and general aviation activity in Income Employment the state through the planning horizon. Gross Regional Product
Comme mmercial Se Service Forecast Methodology • Data is reported by commercial service airports to the FAA on an annual basis • The FAA uses this data to project future activity levels in the TAF for: o Enplanements o Air carrier and air taxi/commuter aircraft operations o Based aircraft • The SASP uses the TAF as the data source for all commercial forecasts
Commercial Service Commercial Enplanements 36,000,000 35,023,816 34,000,000 32,000,000 Total Enplanements 30,000,000 29,032,371 28,000,000 26,399,942 26,000,000 23,688,599 24,000,000 22,000,000 Projected 20,000,000 2016 2021 2026 2036 Year Source = TAF CAGR = 1.97%
Commercial Service Air Carrier and Air Taxi/Commuter Operations 1,100,000 1,071,479 1,050,000 1,000,000 Annual Operations 938,531 950,000 900,000 880,045 830,011 850,000 800,000 Projected 750,000 2016 2021 2026 2036 Year Source = TAF CAGR = 1.28%
Commercial Service General Aviation Based Aircraft at Commercial Service Airports 1,300 1,270 1,250 1,200 Based Aircraft 1,150 1,111 1,100 1,050 1,039 980 1,000 950 Projected 900 2016 2021 2026 2036 Year CAGR = 1.30% Source = TAF
TAF Total Operations Commercial Service 2,050,000 1,915,836 Projected 1,900,000 1,765,600 1,699,511 1,750,000 1,642,999 1,600,000 1,450,000 1,300,000 Operations 1,150,000 1,071,138 938,379 1,000,000 880,045 830,011 850,000 685,801 668,324 654,091 660,569 700,000 550,000 400,000 250,000 158,897 158,897 158,897 158,897 100,000 2016 2021 2026 2036 Year General Aviation Military Commercial Service Total CAGR = 0.77% Source = TAF
GA Forecast Methodologies FAA Advisory Circular 150/5050-7, The Airport System m Planning Process: General Aviation Level of detail in the forecasts should be based upon airports’ activity, planning issues to be addressed, and the future use of the forecasts. • Based aircraft approaches o T op-down: Examine larger system and utilize market share o Bottom-up: Look at individual airport-level activity • GA operations approaches o Operations per based aircraft (OPBA) o ARC Category growth rate
Preferred Based Aircraft Forecast (Population Growth Method) Aircraft Type 2016 2021 2026 2036 General Aviation Single-engine piston 3,835 4,167 4,518 5,261 Multi-engine piston 453 493 532 621 Jet 242 261 285 335 Rotorcraft/helicopter 135 146 157 187 Glider 12 12 13 15 Ultralight 75 130 87 104 Military 2 2 2 3 Total 4,754 5,161 5,594 6,526 Total increase = 1.59%
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