Our purpose today How content is being determined by platforms . Now - - PDF document

Impact on the

Newspaper Industry

By Howard L Finberg

Finberg-Gentry The Digitat Futurist Consuttancy

Tempe, AZ & Pasadena, CA

Our purpose today

How content is being determined by platforms

. Now and in the future

. How newspapers need to be positioning

themselves to serve multiple devices

E&P Interactiue ConJerence zooz / "Digital Deliueronce"/ Finbery-Genw , the Digital Futurist ConsultancA

Some of my background

Experience in newspapers & newsrooms

r' The Arizona Republic / San Francisco Chronicle r' ChicagoTribune "' New York Times

Experience in technology & strategy

/ Technology leadership at The Republic / Technology leadership at Central Nelvspapers r' Technologyventure funding at CNI Ventures

Founded The Digital Futurist Consultancy

/ Help managers understand the impact of technology on their businesses / Help Web site manager with content and revenue challenges r' Help emerging companies understand the media industry

Otherbackground

r' Presidential Scholar at Po).nter Institute / Senior Fellow at American Press Institute

E&P Interoctiue Conference 2oo2 / "Digital DeLiuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Fuho{st Consultancy

The Deep lmpact of change

Internal

. How we do business?

External

. What is our business?

E&P Interactiue Conferenee zooz / "Digitql Deliverance"/ Finberg-Genh'y, the Digital Futurist Consultanca

lnternal impact

Our challenge

. How do we make the most effective

use of resources?

. Doing more with less

E&P Interactiue ConJerence zooz / "Digital Delluerance"/ Finberg-GentrrJ, the Dlgitol Futurist Consultoncr/

Internal impact

The dirty little secret

. Our customers are getting smarter

/But not enough to make life easier

E&P Interactiue ConJerence zooz / "Digitol DeliDerqnce"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digitol Futurist Consultancy

External impact

More important than internal changes

. Our industry is at an "inflection point" . Disruptive technologies are everywhere

E&P lileractiue Conference zooz / "Digital DeLiuerance"/ Finberg-Genh'!), the Digital Futurist Consultancy

Disru ptive tech nolog ies

With disruptiue technologies, a compony needs to throu

• ff its existing culture and methods of doing business.

I,Vhile current customers are important, a disruptiue

technology demands that a componA make sure these customers do not driue the company's

• direction. In other taords, it means making sure old

relationshlps - and their current economic ualue - do not driue business decisions needed for the

:' .

E&P Intetactiue Conference zooz / "Digitul Deliuercnce"/ Finbery-Genfi'y, tlle Digital Filturist Consultonc!)

What are those disruptive devices?

The Internet itself

. Broadband

Information devices

. Wired . Wireless

Reading devices Other digital devices

. Audio . Video , Gateways

E&P Interoctiue Conference zooz / "Digitol DeliL'eronce"/ Finbery-Gentry, the Digital Futto'ist Consultancy

Technology adoption rates

E&P Interoctive ConJerence zooz ,/ "Digitol Deliueronce"/ Finberg-Genw, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

1 ire jl

, Hn;: . LU],

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'

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i

B 1 ? I 4 5 fr 7 a 5 :n 11 1? '!l 14 15

. In some respects, it was an industry built on

growth

There is still upside

. We are entering a maturing period

E&P Interactiue ConJereru:e zooz / "Digitol Deliuercnce"/ Finberg-Genh'y, the DigitaL Futurist Consultancy

lnternet penetration

aT

f,I

71%

'100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Source: Jupiter lntemet Population Model, 10/01 (uS only) E&P Interactive Conference zooz / "Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Genby, the Digital Fuhrrist Conxiltancg

200.5 187.5 173.1 157.6 240 200 160 120 80 40

l---l Online Users - a ' Percentaqe of U.S,

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fr--^-^ll---^-

Broadband goes mainstream

After years of hype, fast access is becoming mainstream and available

dband growth and service type

Satellite/ fixed wireless: r.: 5.2 miliion

subscribers

E&P lf,teraetiue Conference 2oo2 / "Digital Deliuerance"/ Finbery-Gentry, the Digitql Fun!fist Consultancg

Satellite/ fixed wireless: ]fffiffiX:9.9 million

subscribersf subscribers

i Subscriber number$ for 1999 and 2000 are actual end-of-year figures; subscribor numbers for 2001 are eslimates.

Source: Jupiter lnternet Aecess Model, 8/01 (US only)

E&P Interacti,e Conference zooz / "Digitol Deliueronce"/ Finberg-Gentr!, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

Broadband - not just for geeks anymore

E 100%

F

• )

I

Bo%

al,

• .g 60%

E'

)

t

40%

• cD
• E 20%
• e
• L0%

lntermediates "Supervets"

ffi Dial-up

SB Broadband

Source: Jupiter/NPD lndividual User Suryey (5/01), n = 2,361 (dial-up users, US only); n = 562 (broadband usere, US only)

E&P Intqoclive Conferen@ 2oo2 / "Digital Deliverance"/ Finbery-Genw , the Digital Futurist ConsultancA

Why care about broadband?

"It's not a device..." . True, but it actually affects newspaper

publishers

E&P Interqctiue ConJerence 2oo2 / "Digital Deliuerance"/ Finbery-Gentry, the Digital Fututist ConsultancA

Broadband changes the rules

The top customer activities online

E.mil

Research products, seryices Access daily nEre sites Directorysite, addresses or phone DoMloaded free software Electronic greeting/post cards Health or redicins sites Onllne version of a nerepaper g% E&P Intqactiue Conference zooz / "Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Futurist Consultancy Search engihe Local events, restaurants, mps... Contests or sweepstakes

Question #1

Whqt are Aou doing to preparefor broadband

E&p Interactiue Conference zooz / "Digital Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Futurist Consultancg

Information devices

It is not about the computer . Access is the key . Any place, any time

/Multiple devices

E&P Intet\ctive ConJerence zooz / "Digital Deliueronce"/ Finberg-Genh'y, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

lnformation devices

Issues

. What happens when a Palm does everything a

computer does?

r'What do you call it?

. What is the difference between a book and an e-book?

E&P Interoctiue ConJerence 2oo2 / "Digitol Deliuerunce"/ Finberg-GenffV, the Digital Futurist Coreultoncv

lnfo devices: Palm Pilot i705

One of the devices that started it ...

. Not a computer ...

E&P Intersctiue Conference 2oo2 / "Digital Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentra, the Digitol Futurist Consultancy

lnfo devices

Location-aware computing

Tro+*linq? t-h*ck r.,'ut h{apIuert Tror,*l Ixols

n0rlE T* It{tDH lil*E{TttlHs Frum:

I 5torkton 5trPet

b'ln l-f 'lnEl5lD. (ll

To:

5.lErir E,:yfront plozu

5':nto ilnro, 'iH

Ilirrrtians

E&P Interqctlte ConJerence 2oo2 / "Digital Delluerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

lnfo devices: "Smart phone"

E&P Interactiue Conference 2oo2 / "Digital DeLiuerance"/ l'inberg-Genh'U, the Digitat F'uturist Consultancy

lnformation devices

Devices are merging functionality

. The universal remote challenge

/Canyou be all things to all digital devices?

E&P Interactive Conference zooz / "Digital Deliverance"/ Finberg-Genh'y, the Digital Fututist Consultancy

lnfo appliance: K

The camera the plays music

. True multi-purpose devices

r'Targeted market

/Aimed at a different generatio

E&P InteractiDe Conference zooz / "Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digitol Futurist Consultoncg

Question #2

How well do you knou Aour

?

. Hotu "wired" is your marketplace?

lHow are Aoumaking use of your resources?

E&P Intersctiue Conference zooz / "I)igital Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

Reading devices: The Tablet

Delivery of text and images

/Not just for books

• Magazines
• Newsletters
• Newspapers

E&P Interactive Conference 2oo2 / "Digital Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Genb!, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

Reading devices

The early "Tablet" devices

/Softbook /E-Reader /PocketPC

E&P Interactiue Conference eooz / Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-GentrA, the Digital Futurist Consultancg

Reading devices

Early tests inconclusive

. What do consumers want?

/Hard to curl up in bed with a 3-pound e-book

• But this could be a fixable problem
• There are about 25,ooo titles

>> Most bookstores have more than loo,ooo titles on

their shelues

E&P Interactiue Conference zooz / "Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digitol Futurist Consultancy

Reading "device" hybrid

The NewsStand project

. Looks like a newspaper . Doesn't feel like a newspaper

/File you download on your PC I"PDF format on steroids"

• Example: -; l,'-='i., , .' ,.,,'t:. : i

E&P Interactive Conference zooz / "Digital Deliuercnce"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Fututist Consultoncy

Reading devices

The Tablet PC

. Not a laptop, not a PDA

r'Longer battery /Pen-based technology /Speech interface

r'Mobile

• Wireless

E&P Intqactiue Conference zooz / "Digitql Delivercn@"/ Finbery-Gentry, the Digitql Futurist Consultoncy

Reading devices

Here's their vision about the future of paper

E&P Interactiue ConJerence zooz / "Digital Deliuerunce"/ Finbery-Genhy, the Digital Futurist Consultancy

Reading devices & technology

Look for other visions to emerge

. Early technology: Adobe's Acrobat [PDF]

/Soon to test an interactive news product

. European efforts with NewsPad

' Roger Fidler's efforts

/Out of Kent State University

E&P Interactiue ConJerence zooe / "Digitol Deliverance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digitol Futurist Consultancy

Question #3

Iryhil are Aou doing to prepare for the

that is 5 to 70 Aears fro* today?

. While the newspapcr might not disappear,

tuhqt happens if those uho read it on plper disappear?

E&P Interactiue Conference zooz / "Digital DeliDeran@"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digttol Futurist Consultoncy

Reading devices hybrid

Newspapers anywhere, anytime

/Using the Internet as a transportation

vehicle

E&P Interactiue Conferene 2oo2 / "Digitol Deliuerance"/ Finberg-Gentry, the Digital Futurist Coreultancy

Other digital devices issues

We don't have enough time to explore in

depth Audio

. More data via the ear

Video

. More digital video

Home "gateways"

. Your media server

E&P Interactiue Conference 2oo2 / "Digital Deliverance"/ Finbery-GentTA, the Digital Filturist Consultancy

Home "gateways"

Single device to capture, route and manage

digital content coming into the home

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The home gateway vision

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Gateways are about adterlifrinryent

&wftf stsmfl frAereatirpapdveaitb?ng that

marry content and advertising

Competition for customers is why we should care

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Gateways are about advertising

The Lexus experiment with PVR"

. Closely the commercial for details

• "Personal Video Recorder

" Pause, rewind, slow "live- Tv

. Go to lexus.com to win a car!

• No 'intermediaries' need apply

Questions #4

What

plans are you making?

. How will aou

audio, uideo? /This is not a "convergence" issue

E*P rathdle 6nhtu tu, /'Dieiot btir N7 hboeann!,6. Die

Electronic ink

Full of opportunities and dangers . E-Ink's active matrix electronic ink display

r'For highly mobile devices such as cellular phones,

personal digital assistants and reader devices

Disruptive combination

IBM's e-newspaper mockup

Technology ri(1!

rfules

• r. Technolory adoptions always take longer than

predicted

• z. Technology always does less than the promise
• 3. Consumers will drive fundamental changes and

technolory usage

• 4. Experiments cost money; doing nothing costs

even more

F*P htastuzo$a* m2 / "oioitut D.tiERnQ'/ tube.e ota,1J, kt D?ib,}l]tori, tuftory

Avoid the "hype hill"

t@ Intudi4c.,{@d 2M /'LnsiLl Dt"nona1 tube,o-e.^4,th. Die

Thriving during change

Invest in ourselves

. Research and development

' Try, fail and learn

and then W again

tuP latzn(lJe anJertne roo2 / "Dietat tutirornf"/ Finhera.drfl. fi? Dreitul Llrr tr coaa,to'c!

Thank you

Please feel free to contact me

finbctg -Getltry

Tlrc Digitdl Futto'ist Ventures, l,l,C

t-602-421-6838

/ Orjltst srab me inthe hall

/ H(rndouts toill be or'ailahle on our Web sitc:

E*P tntmdieco{.nne N, / "l,ieitat D?ttu.tune"/ IinbeE-aen@, the Dioitat il1hri! tututioilr

Broadband changes the rules

Customer activies by selvlce

t*P tntudt:Eco4l.nnu ,@2 /'Distlt btit? ond'/ Finbqs cenhe, ttre Dtlttt hra tl cotsuttonc!

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