Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
ou our sale lem t toda day
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 05, 2024 349 likes •1.05k views

Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: April 3, 2019 Meeting Agenda Proje oject ct Updat ate City y Profile Greenhouse G Gas (GhG hG) I ) Inventory Draft S t Scena narios rios a and nd

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day

TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: April 3, 2019

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Meeting Agenda

  • Proje
  • ject

ct Updat ate

  • City

y Profile

  • Greenhouse G

Gas (GhG hG) I ) Inventory

  • Draft S

t Scena narios rios a and nd Indica ndicators

  • Next

t St Steps

  • Pu

Publi blic C Comment (Last st 1 15 Mi Minutes) es)

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

What is a Comprehensive Plan?

  • Provide policies and action items to implement the shared vision

Com

  • mprehens

nsiv ive p plans ans…

  • Are based on residents’ and

stakeholders’ values and dreams

  • Provide a shared vision for

the city to guide future growth and development

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Salem’s Comprehensive Plan Update Process

4

Phase 1

Existing Conditions + Scenarios

Fall 2018 – Spring 2019

Phase 2

Community Vision

Phase 3

Update Comp Plan

TBD TBD

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Process and Schedule

5

Review Existing Plans Develop Scenarios Report Card Report Back Choose Indicators

3 5

We are here!

4 1 2

1 2

slide-6
SLIDE 6

City Profile

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

8

60,000 more people by 2035

Current Pop. Est. 2035 Pop.

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9

Salem’s Population is Aging

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10

Hispanic/Latino Population is Increasing

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

11

Salem has a mix of housing types

slide-12
SLIDE 12

12

Housing prices are rising following regional and national trends

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Community Greenhouse Gas (GhG) Inventory

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

What is a Community Greenhouse Gas (GhG) Inventory?

  • Greenhouse gases absorb and emit

the sun’s energy.

  • GhG inventories are a full accounting
  • f these gases emitted into and

removed (sequestrated) from the atmosphere.

  • A community GhG inventory tracks

emissions and sequestration associated with activities that occur within a city, county, or region.

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Why Create a Community GhG Inventory for Salem?

Track progress

  • ver time

Set a baseline for scenarios

  • Develop policies around GhG reduction

targets.

  • Identify activities, industries, and housing

types that provide GhG reductions benefits.

City of Ashland GhG Inventory (2016) Heartland 2050 Regional Vision (Omaha, NE)

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Progress To-Date

Protocol Selection (Sept) Data Acquisition (Sept – Nov) Draft Inventory (Dec - March) Final Inventory (April) Draft Report (May) Final Report (June)

We are here

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Scope of Salem’s GHG Inventory

  • Community-Scale GHG

Inventory

  • Not consumption-based
slide-18
SLIDE 18

Six Emissions Categories / 3 Scopes

ELECTRICITY GENERATION TRANSPORTATION WASTE GENERATION RES / COMMERCIAL FUEL WATER AND WASTEWATER Passenger and freight vehicle miles traveled within Salem UGB. Electricity generated by PGE and Salem Electric to customers within Salem UGB. Solid waste sent to landfills and waste-to-energy facilities. Combustible fuel use in residential and commercial buildings. Water supply and wastewater generation within Salem UGB. AGRICULTURE / URBAN FORESTRY Carbon released by agricultural fertilizer and carbon removed from urban tree cover.

SCOPE 1 SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3

slide-19
SLIDE 19

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

12% 57% 4% 25% 2%

Total Emissions by Source

Res / Commercial Fuel Transportation Water and Wastewater Electricity Waste Generation 1.72 Million MT CO2e 8.2 MT CO2e per Capita

DOES NOT INCLUDE 23,685 MT CO2e SEQUESTERED FROM TREE CANOPY

SCOPE 1 SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3

slide-20
SLIDE 20

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

Transportation Emissions

  • Includes trips going into the

Salem UGB or originating from the Salem UGB

  • Does not include through-

trips

  • Includes flights to/from

Salem municipal airport 960,000 MT CO2e 4,624,776 Average Daily VMT

Source: Cascadia Partners and MWVCOG

slide-21
SLIDE 21

9% 15% 100% 28% 15% 33% Portland General Electric Salem Electric

Electricity Fuel Mix

Wind Hydro Natural Gas/Oil Coal Purchased Power Agreements

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

Electricity Emissions

slide-22
SLIDE 22
  • 200,000,000

400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000

Portland General Electric (PGE) Salem Electric (SE)

Electricity use data by sector and utility (kWh)

Residential Commercial/Industrial Institutional

423,817 MT CO2e 2,803 MT CO2e

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

Electricity Emissions

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Comparing the Draft Inventory to Other Oregon Communities

Community Most Recent Inventory Year

Salem 2016 Eugene 2015 Beaverton 2013 Bend 2016 Portland / Multnomah County 2008 Ashland 2015 Milwaukie 2016 Caveats:

  • Every community is different
  • Some data is older
  • Minor inconsistencies between inventories
slide-24
SLIDE 24

8.2 5.7 11.5 10.4 11.9 8.5 12.6

Per Capita Emissions (MT CO2e)

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

slide-25
SLIDE 25

0.50 0.57 0.06 0.41 0.02 0.33 0.43

Per-Capita Waste Emissions (MT CO2e)

For Salem, includes emissions from Covanta Marion, Pacific Northwest Generation Cooperative, and Coffin Butte Landfill

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

* *

*May be inconsistent due to GHG reporting standards used

slide-26
SLIDE 26

3.2 2.1 5.5 7.1 7.3 4.3 8.5

Per-Capita Energy* Emissions (MT CO2e)

*Stationary consumption of electricity, natural gas, and other fuels

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

slide-27
SLIDE 27

4.6 3.0 5.9 2.8 4.6 3.8 3.7

Per-Capita Transportation Emissions (MT CO2e)

For Salem, does not include trips starting and ending outside Salem UGB

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

slide-28
SLIDE 28

56% 53% 51% 27% 38% 45% 29%

Transportation Emissions as Share of Overall Emissions

DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Next Steps

For Us:

  • We will finalize the GHG inventory
  • Prepare a summary report
  • Prepare a technical memorandum

For You:

  • Continue to track future progress
  • Potentially look back to assess trends
  • Identify policies that could impact community GHG

emissions

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Indicators and Scenarios

31

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Indicators Chosen

The indicators are:

32

  • 1. Variables that can be

measured on a map

  • 2. Questions for which good

data is available

  • 3. Can be influenced by a

Comprehensive Plan

slide-32
SLIDE 32

December Community Workshop

33

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Top 20 Indicators

“Result Areas”

Welcomin ing a and Livable ble Commu mmunity Sa Safe, R Reliable, Efficient Infra rastru ructure Str trong an g and Diver erse e Econom nomy Go Good Gov

  • vernance

Na Natural l Envir vironme ment Stew eward rdship Sa Safe Commu mmunity

Affordabil abilit ity Wal alk an k and t tran ansit it fri riend ndli line ness Emplo loyme ment mi mix Revenue-to to-co cost rat atio io Develo lopme pment nt i in n environme nment ntally lly se sensi siti tive a areas Tra raffic/ c/ pedestr strian acci ccident nts Ho Housing af affordabil abilit ity Access t ss to

  • fr

frequent tr transi sit Aver erag age w e wag age Annua nnual le l level l of se service

(expenditures per capita)

Tre ree ca cano nopy Acti tive tr transp sporta tati tion Comple plete neighborhoods ds Bicy cycle cle a and nd pedestr strian u use se Jobs bs/housin ing bala lance nce Prop

  • perty

ty ta tax x re revenue nue To Total greenhou house se g gas s emissi ssion

  • ns

Proxim imit ity t to par arks ks an and trail ails Air p r pollut llutant nt re reduct uction Inf nfill ll develo lopme pment nt/ re redevelo lopme ment

34

slide-34
SLIDE 34

35

Salem Salem is is Gr Growing ing

How We Grow Matters

slide-35
SLIDE 35

What is Scenario Planning?

36

The Future The Present

Conventional Approach: One Possible Future

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Scenario Planning Explores Multiple Possible Futures

37

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Two Future Scenarios

These are not alternative growth scenarios used for Visioning

38

Both assume Both assume curre urrent C nt City ity p pol

  • lic

icie ies

Scenar nario 1 1: Curre urrent nt T Tre rend nds (Mos

  • st Lik

Likely)

  • Population: 54,000 more people (Forecast =60,000)
  • Density: Lower than allowed
  • Redevelopment: Some

Scenar nario 2 2: Z Zoning

  • ning Buil

Buildout (Maxim (Maximum De Dens nsity ity)

  • Population: 93,000 more people
  • Density: Maximum allowed (housing)
  • Redevelopment: Much more
slide-38
SLIDE 38

39

New Households

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-39
SLIDE 39

40

New Jobs

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-40
SLIDE 40

41

New Activity = Households + Jobs

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-41
SLIDE 41

42

All Households = Today + Future

Current Trends Zoning Buildout Today

slide-42
SLIDE 42

43

What is a Comprehensive Plan? All Jobs = Today + Future

Current Trends Zoning Buildout Today

slide-43
SLIDE 43

Scenario Analysis using Envision Tomorrow

44

BUILDI LDING-LEV EVEL EL MODELIN LING SPATIA IAL S L SCENARIO IOS REAL AL-TIME ME ANA NALYTI TICS

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Many Indicator Results were Different

  • 1. Affordability (

y (Housi sing + Transpor

  • rtation + Ene

nergy)

  • 2. Housi

sing Affordability y

  • 3. Comple

lete e Nei Neigh ghbo borhoods s

  • 4. Walk

k and Transit Frie iendliness

  • 5. Jo

Jobs/ bs/Housing g Bala lance e

  • 6. Acti

ctive Trans nspo porta tati tion

  • n
  • 7. Bicycle and

nd Pede destrian Use

  • 8. Average W

Wage

  • 9. Tree C

Canopy

  • 10. Em

Emplo loyment Mi Mix

  • 11. Acce

ccess t to Frequent nt Trans nsit it

  • 12. Proximity to
  • Parks and

nd Trails

  • 13. Revenu

nue-to to-Co Cost st Ratio

  • 14. An

Annual Le Level of

  • f Se

Service

  • 15. Prope

perty Tax Revenu nue

  • 16. Traffic/

ic/Pede destri trian an A Acci cide dents ts

  • 17. Infill D

ll Develo elopment/ Redevelopm pment nt

  • 18. Developm

pment nt in n Slopes, Floodpl plai ain a and d Ripari parian an Are reas as

  • 19. Green

reenhouse G se Gas as Em Emiss ssions s

  • 20. Air

ir Polluti ution R

  • n Reducti

duction

  • n

Simil imilar: ar: Dif Different nt:

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Why Were They Different?

  • More

More d development nt in in the the Zoning

  • ning Buil

Buildout Scenar nario

  • Dif

Different nt typ types of

  • f d

development nt

  • Redevelopment

nt

  • Mix

Mixed us use Do Downt ntown wn

  • Pop
  • pulat

ation v n varie aries between n scenar narios (5 (54,000

  • vs. 9

93,000) 0)

  • Dire

Direct im impac act on re

  • n revenu

nue, ac accid ident nts, e etc tc.

  • Le

Less to do with

  • with whe

where re d development nt oc

  • ccurs
slide-46
SLIDE 46

31% 47% 59%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Housing Infill and Redevelopment

Different Infill and Redevelopment

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-47
SLIDE 47
  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Annual Traffic Crashes (injuries and fatalities) Fatal Crashes Injury Crashes

Traffic Accidents

Traffic Crashes

1,300

1,700 1,900

18 25 25

Sal Salem T Tar arget: Zero fatalities by 2030

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Per Household Revenue-to- Cost Ratio

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Use

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-49
SLIDE 49

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Auto Travel

50

  • 200,000,000

400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Transportation Carbon Emissions (CO2, g/day) 1.0 B 1.4 B 1.5 B

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Many Indicator Results were Similar

  • 1. Affordability (

y (Housi sing + Transpor

  • rtation + Ene

nergy)

  • 2. Housi

sing Affordability y

  • 3. Comple

lete e Nei Neigh ghbo borhoods s

  • 4. Walk

k and Transit Frie iendliness

  • 5. Jo

Jobs/ bs/Housing g Bala lance e

  • 6. Acti

ctive Trans nspo porta tati tion

  • n
  • 7. Bicycle and

nd Pede destrian Use

  • 8. Average W

Wage

  • 9. Tree C

Canopy

  • 10. Em

Emplo loyment Mi Mix

  • 11. Acce

ccess t to Frequent nt Trans nsit it

  • 12. Proximity to
  • Parks and

nd Trails

  • 13. Revenu

nue-to to-Co Cost st Ratio

  • 14. An

Annual Le Level of

  • f Se

Service

  • 15. Prope

perty Tax Revenu nue

  • 16. Traffic/

ic/Pede destri trian an A Acci cide dents ts

  • 17. Infill D

ll Develo elopment/ Redevelopm pment nt

  • 18. Developm

pment nt in n Slopes, Floodpl plai ain a and d Ripari parian an Are reas as

  • 19. Green

reenhouse G se Gas as Em Emiss ssions s

  • 20. Air

ir Polluti ution R

  • n Reducti

duction

  • n

Simil imilar: ar: Dif Different nt:

slide-51
SLIDE 51

52

Why Were They Similar?

  • Ne

New ho w homes c cont ntinu inue to

  • be buil

ilt on the

  • n the edges
  • Ne

New w jo jobs mirr mirror c r current nt jo jobs

  • Curr

urrent nt p pol

  • lic

icie ies re remain in main in plac ace

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-52
SLIDE 52

65% 60% 62% 23% 44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Complete Neighborhood New Households Only

Complete Neighborhoods

53

Portland Today 50%

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Complete Neighborhoods

54

No criteria matched All 7 criteria matched Current Trends Zoning Buildout Today

slide-54
SLIDE 54

55

38% 31% 31% 61% 54% 56%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

15 Minute Service: All Development

Access to Transit

Access to Transit

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-55
SLIDE 55

56

6% 20% 31% 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Scenario 1 Scenario 3

15 Minute Service: New Development

Access to Transit

Access to Transit

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Goal: l: 10. 0.5% 5% of n new units h have acc ccess within ¼ ¼ mi mile le of 1 15 mi 5 min s service

Go Goal 1 10.5%

slide-56
SLIDE 56

0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

3.2% 2.3% 3.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Today Trends Continue Zoning Buildout Bike Walk

Bike and Pedestrian Use/Mode Split Bicycle and Pedestrian Use

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Walk lk go goal 1 l 11% Bik ike g goa

  • al 5

5%

slide-57
SLIDE 57

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Bike Walk

Bike and Pedestrian Use/Mode Split

Bicycle and Pedestrian Use: Peer Cities

slide-58
SLIDE 58

Traffic Accidents

Proximity to Parks and Trails

75% 73% 72%

0% 50% 100%

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Park Access

89% 85% 85%

0% 50% 100%

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Trail Access

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Other resear arch: Every resident lives with ½ mile of a park.

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Bike and Pedestrian Use/Mode Split

Housing + Transportation + Energy Cost of Household income

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

36% 36% 36%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

National Standard 45%

slide-60
SLIDE 60

What is a Comprehensive Plan? All Jobs = Today + Future

Current Trends Zoning Buildout Today

slide-61
SLIDE 61

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Average Wage per Job

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

$37K $39K $40K

slide-62
SLIDE 62

$- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000

Average Wage Per Capita

Salem Today

Average Wage: Peer Cities

slide-63
SLIDE 63

44% 52% 54% 40% 40% 38%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Existing Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Slopes, Riparian Areas + Floodplain

Riparian Areas + Floodplain

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-64
SLIDE 64

0% 50% 100%

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Slopes, Riparian Areas + Floodplain

Development in areas with slopes 10% +

Current Trends Zoning Buildout

slide-65
SLIDE 65

19% 18% 18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Today Trends Continue Zoning Buildout

Tree Canopy Tree Canopy

Today Current Trends Zoning Buildout

Goal 23% 23%

slide-66
SLIDE 66

Few Adopted Targets

Ind ndic icat ator Adopt pted Ta Target Me Meeti ting Target?

Tree C Cano anopy 23% 23% co coverage

No No

Wa Walk B Bike Bike ke – 3% 3% b by 2020, 2020, 5% 5% b by 2030 2030 Pe Ped – 7% 7% b by 2020, 2020, 11% 1% b by 2030 2030

No No

Trans nsit it 41% % of

  • f new hou

w housi sing u units w/i w/in ¼ ¼ mi mile of 3

  • f 30 mi

min se servi vice a and 1 10.5 .5% % w/i w/in ¼ ¼ mi mile le of

  • f 15 mi

min se servi vice b by 2030 2030

No No

Traf affic ic A Accide cident nts Reduce pe pedest stri rian c cra rashe shes b by 50% and nd no no fatal c crashes b by y 2030 2030

No No

slide-67
SLIDE 67

68

What happens next?

  • Create report card to

evaluate Salem today and in the future under current policies

  • May 8th – Public event to

report back

  • 6 pm at Court Street

Christian Church

slide-68
SLIDE 68

Public Open House May 8th

69

Visit project website for updates:

www.cityofsalem.net/Pages/our-salem.aspx

slide-69
SLIDE 69

Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day

TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: April 3, 2019