Optimal Design of Multi-Purpose Reservoir System to Meet Water - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Optimal Design of Multi-Purpose Reservoir System to Meet Water Demands in Townsville Michael V. Sarunn Supervisor: Dr. Bithin Datta 12-9-2017 Discipline of Civil Engineering 1

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1 2 Haughton pipeline duplication Hells Gate Dam. • scheduled to begin in 2019 • A feasibility is being done SOLUTIONS

HELLS GATE

MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR

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Duplication Pipeline CAPITAL AND RECURRING COST 7

OPTIMISATION Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGAII) 8

CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY – 50 YRS DATA Inflow = [18, 19, 22.5, 3.8, 2, 1.7, 1.7, 1.5, 0.93, 0.58, 4, 27.8]; total = 103.5 GL; 10% cumulative probability Inflow = [56.3, 74, 70, 9.6, 7.3, 6, 3.8, 2.5, 1.6, 1.83, 4, 17.6]; total = 254.5 GL; 30% cumulative probability 9 10% means 5 times in 50 years, the inflow <= 103.5 GL 30% means 15 times in 50 years, the inflow <= 254.5 GL

OPTIMISATION  F1 = minimise Capacity 12 (𝑆 (𝑢) − 𝐸 (𝑢) ) 2  F2 = minimise Deviation = 𝑢=1 MODELS  F1 = minimise Capacity 𝐹 𝑇 ∗𝑆 (𝑢) ∗9.81∗1000  F2 = - Maximise power = 𝑢=1 [Mw] 12 86400∗730 10

CONSTRAINTS  Capacity >= storage  𝑇 𝑢+1 = 𝑇 𝑢 + [𝐽 𝑢 − (𝑆 (𝑢) + 𝐹𝑤𝑏𝑞𝑀𝑝𝑡𝑡 𝑢 )] 11

Solving for 25 to 37 unknowns Release (12 months) Capacity X(2) X(4) X(5) X(6) X(7) X(8) X(9) X(12) X(1) X(3) X(10) X(11) X(13) Storage (12 months) X(14) X(15) X(16) X(17) X(18) X(19) X(20) X(21) X(22) X(23) X(24) X(25) Power (12 months) X(26) X(27) X(28) X(29) X(30) X(31) X(32) X(33) X(34) X(35) X(36) X(37)

Total Avg Demand 30.6 315.1 26.3 24.5 26.4 24.4 20.7 19 19.3 23 27.4 33.2 32.9 33.7 Release 25.0 22.1 21.5 22.1 20.5 18.4 20.3 20.7 21.1 24.3 23.9 25.8 265.8 22.1 Differenc -5.6 -2.4 -4.9 -2.3 -0.2 -0.6 1.0 -2.3 -6.3 -8.9 -9.0 -7.9 -49.34 -4.1 e Optimisation Model 1 10% Cumulative Probability, 10% Initial Storage 13

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Total Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Demand (GL) 30.6 24.5 26.4 24.4 20.7 19 19.3 23 27.4 33.2 32.9 33.7 315.1 Release (GL) 30.7 24.6 26.4 24.5 20.8 19.0 19.3 23.1 27.4 33.3 32.9 33.8 315.8 Difference 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.06 0.14 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.7 (GL) 30% Cumulative Probability, 50% Initial Storage 14

MODEL 2 POWER VS CAPACITY 15

10% cumulative probability Optimisation Model 2 16

30% cumulative probability, 50% initial storage Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Demand (GL) 30.6 24.5 26.4 24.4 20.7 19 19.3 23 27.4 33.2 32.9 33.7 315.1 Release (GL) 28.31 27.66 28.55 25.18 28.99 26.93 25.09 22.70 26.52 26.77 28.04 25.88 320.6 Difference -2.3 3.2 2.2 0.8 8.3 7.9 5.8 -0.3 -0.9 -6.4 -4.9 -7.8 5.5 17

MONTHLY RELEASES FOR POWER Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total 274.0 27.2 25.4 28.0 24.0 29.2 26.6 23.4 20.4 27.1 27.6 26.7 24.9 310.4 273.8 26.7 27.9 29.4 24.7 28.5 26.7 24.5 22.0 25.8 24.9 25.9 24.5 311.5 29.6 27.1 29.7 25.3 29.4 25.8 25.3 21.5 26.1 26.5 28.0 27.4 321.8 277.0 28.0 28.4 27.3 24.8 28.4 27.5 23.7 23.2 27.4 26.5 28.3 24.4 318.1 274.0 28.2 27.5 28.8 25.8 30.0 26.3 24.5 23.0 26.3 27.6 28.4 26.3 322.8 275.3 28.5 28.4 29.2 25.3 29.8 25.9 25.4 22.3 26.3 28.4 30.1 26.5 326.2 283.9 273.7 27.8 27.7 28.3 24.2 28.0 27.4 23.9 20.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 24.7 310.2 276.0 30.2 28.5 27.4 24.7 29.9 28.9 26.0 22.7 26.1 27.5 27.3 26.6 325.8 275.3 27.1 27.1 28.5 25.4 27.9 27.6 25.7 22.1 25.9 26.8 27.2 24.7 315.9 274.5 28.2 27.7 29.2 24.2 29.3 27.2 24.9 22.7 25.3 26.3 28.0 26.5 319.5 275.3 26.8 26.5 29.8 25.3 29.1 27.5 24.8 20.9 27.8 25.9 26.7 26.2 317.5 278.0 28.3 28.0 28.7 25.3 28.3 26.6 25.2 22.6 26.7 27.6 30.0 26.7 324.0 280.9 30.1 28.2 27.7 26.9 29.3 26.3 26.6 26.3 27.7 27.5 28.6 25.9 331.1 274.4 27.1 26.9 28.0 25.1 28.3 26.2 25.1 24.6 27.4 24.8 27.6 24.8 315.9 276.15 28.14 27.52 28.57 25.07 28.97 26.89 24.94 22.50 26.51 26.70 27.81 25.72 319.3 276.15 28.14 27.52 28.57 25.07 28.97 26.89 24.94 22.50 26.51 26.70 27.81 25.72 319.34 18

CONCLUSION • RESERVOIRS SERVE MANY PURPOSES. • MUCH TO BE GAINED FROM THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE DAM • GENETIC ALGORITHM (NSGA-II) CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE RELEASE POLICIES • THE MODEL SHOWS THAT: 1. CAPACITY OF THE DAM RANGE FROM 200 - 280 GL WITH 70% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THIS AMOUNT 2. WITH 30% CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY • HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER VARIES BETWEEN 15 - 29 MW PA. 19

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2016 2036 Townsville Population 199358 288593 Growth Rate 1.96% 1.72% Annual Demand Projections 60000 86857 (ML) Daily Demand (ML) 164.4 238.0 TOWNSVILLE WATER DEMAND 21