Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the WEFE Nexus in crop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the WEFE Nexus in crop - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the WEFE Nexus in crop production in Almeria Violeta Cabello Applying social-ecological systems frameworks to improve sustainable land use and enhance resilient agro-food systems under water

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Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the WEFE Nexus in crop production in Almeria

Violeta Cabello

Applying social-ecological systems frameworks to improve sustainable land use and enhance resilient agro-food systems under water scarcity. FAO Expert Workshop, 23-25th Jan 2018

The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.

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Contents

MAGIC MuSIASEM Theoretical pillars Toolkit The Almeria case study

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MAGIC

Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing Nexus Security

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What is MAGIC?

  • H2020 Water-2b-2015 call. 4 year project, starting June 2016
  • Process oriented project: improving quality control in science for policy in

the context of uncertainty and complexity

  • Protocol for integrated assessment of policies and innovations dealing with

Nexus challenges

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The MAGIC approach

Quantitative Story-Telling:

○ Analysis of the whole process of construction and validation of narratives ○ Multi-scale accounting of the Nexus with MuSIASEM ○ Deliberation Support System

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During the first year

5 policy narratives:

○ Water, food, energy, environment & circular economy

6 innovations narratives:

○ Alternative water sources, irrigation efficiency, green bonds, fracking, biofuels, electric cars

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During the first year

Pilots at different scales

  • Local (farm crop-water supply)
  • Regional

○ Almeria (water-crop supply) ○ Catalonia (electricity supply) ○ Scotland (animal supply-demand)

  • National scale: 8 EU countries

○ All Nexus dimensions ○ Supply and demand ○ Externalization

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MuSIASEM

Multi-Scale Integrated Accounting of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism

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MuSIASEM

Environmental accounting framework (Giampietro & Mayumi 2001) http://nexus-assessment.info/ (FAO project 2014)

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MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars

Complex systems theory: Relational analysis (Rosen 1977, 1985; Louie 2009, 2013)

  • Explores identity in living systems
  • ‘Abstract block diagrams’ representing the

functions of the different components in metabolic networks A metabolic system. More than Life Itself (Louie 2009)

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MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars

Complex systems theory: Hierarchy theory (Allen and Starr, 1982; Salthe 1985)

  • Explores the multi-level organisation of living

systems

  • Introduces the importance of scale, and of the

need to deal with several analytical scales Organisms Population Community Ecosystem Landscape Biome Ecological Hierarchy (adapted from Allen and Hoeckstra 1992)

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Ecological economics: Flow-fund model (Georgescu-Roegen 1971)

Funds: remain the same

MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars

Flows: are transformed Land, humans, technical capital, biomass in ecosystems... Energy, food, consumed water, wastes, nutrients...

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Ecological economics: Flow-fund model (Georgescu-Roegen 1971)

Funds: renewables but need maintenance!

MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars

Stocks: non renewables

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MuSIASEM: toolkit

Grammars:

  • Relate supply and demand
  • Specific for each resource

system (food, water, energy)

  • Multi-level disaggregation of

components

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MuSIASEM: toolkit

The water grammar:

  • Connects social and

ecological systems

  • Includes virtual water

The water metabolism of social-ecological systems (Madrid, C. 2104)

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MuSIASEM: toolkit

Nexus networks:

  • Relate nexus dimensions

by connecting components from different grammars

  • Social and ecological

components

  • Multi-level connections
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MuSIASEM: toolkit

Processors:

  • Relate nexus dimensions

within each component of the system

  • Array of variables

characterizing inputs &

  • utputs in production

processes Processor for a socioeconomic component of the network

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MuSIASEM: toolkit

Processors:

  • Ecosystems might be

described with the same set of categories

  • Enable the connection of

social and ecological components Processor for an ecological component of the network

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Almeria

Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the nexus in crop production and water supply at regional scale

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Almeria: context

Semi-arid area (200 – 600 mm) Diversity of landscapes and agricultural systems Intensive production of fresh vegetables for export Long-term aquifer overdraft & pollution

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Almeria: context

Water systems Agricultural systems

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Nexus network

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Processors for crop production processes

Orienta tion Domain Type Var. Tomato GH Tomato OF Unit

Input Human Flow NPK req. 994 316 g/kg Water req. 4900 2200 l/kg Input Human Fund Labour 2900 1350 h/kg Land 0.013 0.03 ha/ton Output Human Flow Yield 94 33 ton/ha

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Processors for farming systems

Orientati

  • n

Domain Type Var.

  • Veg. mix

GH Veg. mix OF

Unit

Input Human Flow Fertilizers 2700 1740 kg/ha Water use 6100 3300 m3/ha Plastic 2500 ton/ha Input Human Fund Labour 2350 480 h/kg Output Envir. Flow Plastic 830 ton/ha NO3 leak 74 112 kg/ha Output Human Flow Yield 81 37 ton/ha

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Processors for water sources

Orientat ion Domai n Type Var. Aquifer GA Aquifer AG Unit

Input Envir. Flow Recharge 118 7.6 Mm3 Output Envir. Flow Discharges 30 2 Mm3 Output Human Flow Withdrawal 153 17 Mm3 Input Human Flow NO3 leak 82 85 ton Returns 3.6 2.6 Mm3

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Results

Comparing the performance

  • f the metabolism of

irrigation areas

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Results

Comparing the size of the metabolism of irrigation areas

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Results

Linking crop production patterns to water sources status

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Results

Over Draft(%) Marine intrusion Pesticide pollution NO3 pollution 74 Yes Yes Yes 35 Yes Yes Yes 300 Yes Yes Yes 250 No No No No No No Water use (Mm3) Fertilizers (103 ton) Pesticides (103 m3) 180 62 85 53 5 12 31 10 16 25 8 13

Environmental Impact Indicators Flows required

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Next steps

  • Complete diagnostic tool
  • From diagnostic to simulation mode

○ What if overdraft is to be ratchet down to zero? ○ What if demand for vegetables changes? ○ What is the option space for adaptation?

  • Apply the toolkit in a Quantitative Story-Telling cycle in the Canary Islands
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Difficulties & uncertainties

  • Multiple data sources at different spatial scales. Mismatches
  • Low quality of secondary data at regional scale & data gaps. Pending NUSAP
  • Different procedures for calculating different variables: a meta-system of

accounting

  • Definition of typologies: data-driven vs problem-driven
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Strengths

  • Integrated: Multiple scales and

analytical dimensions

  • Flexible, semantically open
  • Care for definitions of ‘what are

we talking about’

  • Only material & energy

accounting

  • Limited comparability of

variables in case studies

  • Time-consuming problem &

system definition

  • Non dynamic

Limits

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@MAGIC_NEXUS

magic-nexus.eu

https://www.facebook.com/MagicNexusEu/

Thanks for your attention

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669.