Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the WEFE Nexus in crop production in Almeria Violeta Cabello Applying social-ecological systems frameworks to improve sustainable land use and enhance resilient agro-food systems under water scarcity. FAO Expert Workshop, 23-25th Jan 2018 This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669. The present work reflects only the author's view and the Funding Agency can not be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
MAGIC MuSIASEM Contents Theoretical pillars Toolkit The Almeria case study
MAGIC Moving Towards Adaptive Governance in Complexity: Informing Nexus Security
What is MAGIC? H2020 Water-2b-2015 call. 4 year project, starting June 2016 ● ● Process oriented project: improving quality control in science for policy in the context of uncertainty and complexity Protocol for integrated assessment of policies and innovations dealing with ● Nexus challenges
The MAGIC approach Quantitative Story-Telling: ○ Analysis of the whole process of construction and validation of narratives ○ Multi-scale accounting of the Nexus with MuSIASEM ○ Deliberation Support System
During the first year 5 policy narratives: ○ Water, food, energy, environment & circular economy 6 innovations narratives: ○ Alternative water sources, irrigation efficiency, green bonds, fracking, biofuels, electric cars
During the first year Pilots at different scales ● Local (farm crop-water supply) ● Regional ○ Almeria (water-crop supply) ○ Catalonia (electricity supply) ○ Scotland (animal supply-demand) ● National scale: 8 EU countries ○ All Nexus dimensions ○ Supply and demand ○ Externalization
MuSIASEM Multi-Scale Integrated Accounting of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism
MuSIASEM Environmental accounting framework (Giampietro & Mayumi 2001) http://nexus-assessment.info/ (FAO project 2014)
MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars Complex systems theory: Relational analysis (Rosen 1977, 1985; Louie 2009, 2013) ● Explores identity in living systems ● ‘Abstract block diagrams’ representing the functions of the different components in metabolic networks A metabolic system. More than Life Itself (Louie 2009)
Biome MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars Landscape Complex systems theory: Hierarchy theory Ecosystem (Allen and Starr, 1982; Salthe 1985) ● Explores the multi-level organisation of living Community systems ● Introduces the importance of scale, and of the need to deal with several analytical scales Population Organisms Ecological Hierarchy (adapted from Allen and Hoeckstra 1992)
MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars Ecological economics: Flow-fund model (Georgescu-Roegen 1971) Flows: are transformed Funds: remain the same Land, humans, technical capital, biomass in Energy, food, consumed water, wastes, ecosystems... nutrients...
MuSIASEM: theoretical pillars Ecological economics: Flow-fund model (Georgescu-Roegen 1971) Funds: renewables but need maintenance! Stocks: non renewables
MuSIASEM: toolkit Grammars: ● Relate supply and demand ● Specific for each resource system (food, water, energy) ● Multi-level disaggregation of components
MuSIASEM: toolkit The water grammar: ● Connects social and ecological systems ● Includes virtual water The water metabolism of social-ecological systems (Madrid, C. 2104)
MuSIASEM: toolkit Nexus networks: ● Relate nexus dimensions by connecting components from different grammars ● Social and ecological components ● Multi-level connections
MuSIASEM: toolkit Processors: ● Relate nexus dimensions within each component of the system ● Array of variables characterizing inputs & outputs in production processes Processor for a socioeconomic component of the network
MuSIASEM: toolkit Processors: ● Ecosystems might be described with the same set of categories ● Enable the connection of social and ecological components Processor for an ecological component of the network
Almeria Operationalizing MuSIASEM for the analysis of the nexus in crop production and water supply at regional scale
Almeria: context Semi-arid area (200 – 600 mm) Diversity of landscapes and agricultural systems Intensive production of fresh vegetables for export Long-term aquifer overdraft & pollution
Almeria: context Water systems Agricultural systems
Nexus network
Processors for crop production processes Orienta Domain Type Var. Tomato Tomato Unit tion GH OF Input Human Flow NPK req. 994 316 g/kg Water req. 4900 2200 l/kg Input Human Fund Labour 2900 1350 h/kg Land 0.013 0.03 ha/ton Output Human Flow Yield 94 33 ton/ha
Processors for farming systems Orientati Domain Type Var. Veg. mix Veg. Unit GH mix OF on Input Human Flow Fertilizers 2700 1740 kg/ha Water use 6100 3300 m3/ha Plastic 2500 0 ton/ha Input Human Fund Labour 2350 480 h/kg Output Envir. Flow Plastic 830 0 ton/ha NO3 leak 74 112 kg/ha Output Human Flow Yield 81 37 ton/ha
Processors for water sources Orientat Domai Type Var. Aquifer Aquifer Unit ion n GA AG Input Envir. Flow Recharge 118 7.6 Mm3 Output Envir. Flow Discharges 30 2 Mm3 Output Human Flow Withdrawal 153 17 Mm3 Input Human Flow NO3 leak 82 85 ton Returns 3.6 2.6 Mm3
Results Comparing the performance of the metabolism of irrigation areas
Results Comparing the size of the metabolism of irrigation areas
Results Linking crop production patterns to water sources status
Results Environmental Impact Indicators Over Marine Pesticide NO3 Draft(%) intrusion pollution pollution Flows required Water Fertilizers Pesticides use (10 3 ton) (10 3 m 3 ) 74 Yes Yes Yes (Mm 3 ) 35 Yes Yes Yes 180 62 85 300 Yes Yes Yes 53 5 12 250 No No No 31 10 16 0 No No No 25 8 13
Next steps ● Complete diagnostic tool ● From diagnostic to simulation mode ○ What if overdraft is to be ratchet down to zero? ○ What if demand for vegetables changes? ○ What is the option space for adaptation? ● Apply the toolkit in a Quantitative Story-Telling cycle in the Canary Islands
Difficulties & uncertainties Multiple data sources at different spatial scales. Mismatches ● ● Low quality of secondary data at regional scale & data gaps. Pending NUSAP ● Different procedures for calculating different variables: a meta-system of accounting ● Definition of typologies: data-driven vs problem-driven
Limits Strengths Only material & energy ● Integrated: Multiple scales and ● analytical dimensions accounting ● Limited comparability of Flexible, semantically open ● variables in case studies ● Care for definitions of ‘what are Time-consuming problem & ● we talking about’ system definition ● Non dynamic
Thanks for your attention This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 689669. magic-nexus.eu @MAGIC_NEXUS https://www.facebook.com/MagicNexusEu/
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