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DLR.de Chart 1 >DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change Volker Grewe + contributions from many others

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Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change Volker Grewe + contributions from many others

DLR-Institute for Atmospheric Physics TU Delft, Chair for Climate Effects of Aviation ECATS Vice-Chair

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 1

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  • International Aviation
  • emits eq.CO2 comparable to a large EU country
  • shows large increase in emissions

Comparison of emission of CO2 equivalents (TgCO2/year)

comprises CO2, CH4, NO2, SF6, HFCs, CFCs (without gases from the Montreal Protocol)

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 2

Country / Type 1990 2000 2010 2015 % Change 1990-2015 Germany 1251 1043 942 902

  • 28%

France 550 556 517 464

  • 16%

Europe 5641 5151 4773 4307

  • 24%

International Aviation 545 682 759 840

2014

+54%

Data: unfccc.int iea, 2016

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Air traffic emissions at cruise

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change

IPCC (1999)

DLR.de • Chart 3

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Atmospheric effects of aviation

Climate forcings Emissions Changes in atmospheric composition H2O H2O Direct greenhouse gases CO2 CO2 Indirect greenhouse gases NOx O3 VOC, CO Clouds Clouds Contrails CH4 Direct aerosol effect SO2 Particles Particles Climate change

DLR.de • Chart 4 >DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change

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Radiative Forcing in 2005 from historical aviation emission

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 5

Grewe et al. (2017)

Data are based on Lee et al (2009) with update from various more recent publications

Carbon Dioxide, NOx emissions, and contrail cirrus are main contributors to aviation induced RF. Level of Scientific Understanding (LoSU) varies between individual effects

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SLIDE 6

Aviation´s impact on global mean 2m-temperature

~0.03 K von 0.7 K  5%

Main contributors :

  • CO2
  • Contrails
  • NOx (O3 and CH4)

PMO=„Primary mode ozone“ Results from less CH4  less HO2  less O3 production

Air traffic contributes to climate change by roughly 5%.

DLR.de • Chart 6 >DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change

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Mitigating the climate impact of aviation: Some recent studies

  • Technological Measures:
  • Fuel efficiency
  • Emission reduction
  • Alternative fuels
  • Operational Measures:
  • Avoiding climate sensitive regions
  • Intermediate Stop Operations
  • Climate restricted airspaces
  • Economical Measures
  • Market-Based Measures
  • Carbon off-setting
  • Climate – Charged Areas

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 7

Weather related approach Implementation aspects DLR-Project CATS Climatological approach Aircraft redesign EU-Projects REACT4C / ATM4E DLR-Project WeCare / Eco2Fly

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DLR-Project CATS: Climate Compatible Air Transport System Focus on a long-range aircraft

=AirClim

Koch et al., 2011 Dahlmann et al. 2016

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 8

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  • Variation of initial cruise altitude and speed
  • Optimal relation between costs and climate
  • Definition of new design point
  • Optimisation of the new aircraft for this new design point

CATS-optimisation approach

Koch, 2013

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 9

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A330: Potential of a climate change reduction: CATS-results

Variation in speed an cruise altitude 30% Reduction in climate change with 5% increase in costs 64% Reduction in climate change with 32% increase in costs (w/o adaption of aircraft)

(Dahlmann et al, 2016)

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 10

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Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C

CATS Final results

Max Mach 0.775 / Max Altitude 10500m

Koch (2012)

Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 11

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Can we make use of the large spatial variability in aviation non-CO2 effects?

www.DLR.de • Chart 12 > Lecture > Author • Document > Date

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A B

What happens if an aircraft emits NOx at location A compared to location B?

Different weather situations: Evolution of aircraft NOx

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 13

Frömming et al

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EMAC-Symposium 14.-16. Februar 2012

Evolution of O3 [ppt] following a NOx pulse

A: 250hPa, 40°N, 60°W, 12 UTC B: 250hPa, 40°N, 30°W, 12 UTC

Pressure [hPa]

Change in NOx and Ozone mass

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 14

Frömming et al

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Weather data and Ozone Climate-Change-Functions

Frömming et al. 2017

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 15

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Avoiding climate sensitive regions: The approach

Traffic scenario:

Roughly 800 North Atlantic Flights

Respresentative weather situations

Climatology based on Irvine et al. (2013)

Traffic optimisation:

With respet to costs and climate

Climate-Change Functions

Contrails, O3, CH4, H2O, CO2

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 16

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Climatology based on 8 representative weather pattern

Grewe et al. (2017)

  • Very flat Pareto-Front

 Large benefits at low costs

  • Market based measures (MBM)

would enable climate optimised routing, if non-CO2 effects were taken into account.

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 17

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> Lecture > Author • Document > Date DLR.de • Chart 18

Example: New York - London

Minimal costs Minimal climate impact

Larger overlap of routes Clear difference between West- and eastbound traffic

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SLIDE 19

> Kolloquium OP> V. Grewe • > 18.0472016 DLR.de • Chart 19

  • Only small

differences visible

  • Smaller flight corridor
  • Difference between

flights from and to Europe

Fleet basis

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ATM4E

20 ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

SWIM

Current situation

Air traffic management for environment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E

Matthes et al. (2017)

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 20

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ATM4E

21 ATM4E Overview > Sigrun Matthes, DLR > Intermediate Review, 18 May 2017

SWIM

Air traffic management for environment: SESAR/H2020-Project ATM4E

Contribution

  • f ATM4E

Matthes et al. (2017)

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 21

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ATM4E

Algorithmic Climate Change Functions

ATM4E WP5 Management > Intermediate Review, 18 May2017 22

Detailed calculation of Climate Change Functions Correlation with with weather data at time and location of the emission Algorithmic Climate Change Functions Longitude Latitude NOx-Ozone Climate Change Function Longitude Latitude NOx-Ozone Algorithmic Climate Change Function depending on Temperature and Geopotential Temperature Geopotential

Van Manen (2017) Van Manen and Grewe (2018)

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ATM4E

Verification of the Algorithmic Climate Change Functions: Approach

ATM4E WP5 Management > Intermediate Review, 18 May2017 23

Departure Arrival

Climate-sensitive regions (aCCFs) Cost-optimal aircraft trajectory Climate-optimal aircraft trajectory

NOx Emissions Ozone change O3-RF of cost-

  • ptimal

trajectory NOx Emissions Ozone change O3-RF of climate-

  • ptimal

trajectory

Air traffic simulator Atmospheric Chemistry Radiatve Forcing

Yin et al. (2018)

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ATM4E

Verification of the Algorithmic Climate Change Functions: Model

Earth-System Model EMAC

ECHAM5/MESSy2.52 Atmospheric Chemistry Model

Including: Air Traffic Simulator: AirTraf 1.0

  • Aircraft/engine performance
  • Flight plan
  • Optimizer: Genetic algorithm
  • Fuel/Emissions

Chemistry

  • NMHC Chemistry (MECCA)

Diagnostics

  • Tagging scheme

ATM4E WP5 Management > Intermediate Review, 18 May2017 24

Great Circle Time optimal Jet stream

Yamashita et al. (2016)

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ATM4E

Verification result

ATM4E WP3: Verification 25

The trajectories optimized using

  • zone aCCFs actually reduce

the ozone climate impact.  Proof of Concept

Yin et al. (2018)

RF: -2%

Zonal mean ozone changes (mol/mol)

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SLIDE 26

ATM4E

Next steps

ATME4E-concept: Enhance TRL level of the ATM4E routing concept

  • Enhance forecast reliability: Wheather forecast as well as CCFs
  • Assess risks of wrong decisions
  • Identify no-regret measures
  • Assess robust aircraft trajectories
  • Simulation lifetrial

Climate research: Enhance understanding of climate impact from aviation

  • Assess impact of poorly known processes
  • Quantify uncertainties, which may feed into robust decisions

Aeronautical Research

  • Capacity analysis

Society/Politics/Research: Climate target

  • What are we aiming at? 2°C ( incl.non-CO2) or long-term effects ( CO2) ?
  • How much additional CO2 do we want to allow for reducing non-CO2 effects?

Economics:

  • How do include the short-term non-CO2 effects in a financial framework?

ETS / CORSIA / Airspace Closing / Airspace levies, taxes ?

ATM4E WP5 Management > Intermediate Review, 18 May2017 26

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Summary

  • More than 50% of the climate impact from aviation due to non-CO2 effects.

Note that some effects are still associated with large uncertainties (e.g aerosol-cloud interactions)

  • Avoiding climate sensitive regions leads to a reduction of the aviation's

climate impact at relatively low costs (eco-efficient).

  • Concept of climate change functions reduces largely non-CO2 climate

impacts at the expense of CO2.

  • Verification shows a proof of concept on the basis of an ESM including an

air traffic simulator.

  • A couple of important questions remain before the concept of avoiding

climate-sensitive regions may become operational

  • Outlook: Forecasting of non-CO2 effects on a daily basis.

>DLR Climate Change Conference 2018> V. Grewe • Operational measures for mitigating aircraft climate change DLR.de • Chart 27

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Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention