NZs Tenure Revolution and its Ageing Society - New Zealands Renting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NZ’s Tenure Revolution and its Ageing Society

• New Zealand’s Renting Revolution-

Address to ‘Life when renting’ Mid-term Summit, Tauranga, May 30 Dr Natalie Jackson Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd.

Data sources

• Customised Census database 1986-

2013 from Statistics New Zealand

• Tenure by age, sex, major ethnic

group, territorial authority area (TA)

• See handout for grouping of tenure

categories over time

2

Main methodological notes

• The data are based on the age, sex, ethnic

group, territorial authority area of usual residence of each individual in the household, at each census

– thus we have data for children – thus our data do not account for people moving between areas, only for people living in the particular area at the particular census

3

The descent of home ownership

75.2 67.4 49.0

12.3 14.6 24.8 24.4 29.1 32.6 33.6 36.3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Total New Zealand

Home Ownership Family Trust Renting

63.6

4 Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

The descent of home ownership/rise in renting is more dramatic in some places than others

80.5 66.2 44.9

15.7 18.5

19.5 27.8 33.8 36.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

Tauranga City

Home Ownership Family Trust Renting

63.3

5 Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

However, Tauranga, WBOP among lowest proportions renting at 65+ years in 2013

22 19 17 16 15 5 10 15 20 25 30

Chatham Islands Territory Wairoa District Opotiki District Ruapehu District Gisborne District Porirua City Auckland South Taranaki District Westland District Hamilton City Buller District Waitomo District Wanganui District South Waikato District Grey District Mackenzie District Lower Hutt City Rotorua District Whakatane District Masterton District Napier City Kawerau District Waikato District Hauraki District Hastings District Total New Zealand Far North District Kaipara District Palmerston North City Hurunui District Kaikoura District Christchurch City Carterton District Clutha District Rangitikei District Stratford District Horowhenua District Otorohanga District Tararua District Taupo District Invercargill City Manawatu District Whangarei District Tauranga City Dunedin City Gore District Matamata-Piako District New Plymouth District Central Hawke's Bay District Waipa District Timaru District Upper Hutt City Nelson City Wellington City Marlborough District Waimate District Thames-Coromandel District Waitaki District Ashburton District Southland District Western Bay of Plenty District South Wairarapa District Queenstown-Lakes District Tasman District Waimakariri District Kapiti Coast District Central Otago District Selwyn District

Percentage

Renting (%) at 65+ years in 2013

6

Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

Home ownership has declined in every TA. Tauranga, Auckland, WBOP among greatest declines

• 44
• 39
• 35
• 30
• 15
• 50
• 45
• 40
• 35
• 30
• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

Queenstown-Lakes District Tauranga City Waitomo District Southland District Hamilton City Auckland Western Bay of Plenty District Otorohanga District Ashburton District Hastings District Stratford District Christchurch City South Taranaki District Opotiki District Taupo District Total New Zealand Napier City Wellington City Thames-Coromandel District Gore District Rotorua District Nelson City Dunedin City Waipa District Kapiti Coast District Clutha District Wanganui District Gisborne District Whangarei District Waimate District Palmerston North City Invercargill City Horowhenua District Lower Hutt City Far North District Whakatane District Waitaki District New Plymouth District Marlborough District Matamata-Piako District Tararua District South Wairarapa District Kaipara District Masterton District Central Otago District Upper Hutt City Manawatu District Timaru District Hauraki District South Waikato District Central Hawke's Bay District Tasman District Kaikoura District Mackenzie District Kawerau District Chatham Islands Territory Waikato District Wairoa District Rangitikei District Ruapehu District Carterton District Waimakariri District Porirua City Westland District Grey District Buller District Hurunui District Selwyn District

Percentage

Change in home ownership, all ages, 1986-2013 (%)

7

Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

Tauranga, WBOP among greatest declines in home

• wnership at 65+ years
• 36
• 31
• 29
• 29
• 9
• 60
• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10

Queenstown-Lakes District Central Otago District Taupo District Western Bay of Plenty District Tauranga City Mackenzie District Stratford District Otorohanga District Southland District Thames-Coromandel District Waitaki District Dunedin City Clutha District Gore District Waitomo District South Taranaki District Auckland Hastings District Ashburton District Wanganui District Opotiki District Central Hawke's Bay District Kaipara District Tasman District Marlborough District Waipa District Ruapehu District Kapiti Coast District Nelson City Invercargill City Westland District Total New Zealand Whangarei District New Plymouth District Whakatane District Manawatu District Grey District Timaru District Tararua District Kaikoura District Hamilton City Far North District Horowhenua District Waimakariri District Matamata-Piako District Rotorua District Buller District South Wairarapa District Christchurch City Masterton District Selwyn District Palmerston North City Napier City Upper Hutt City Waikato District Gisborne District Carterton District Wellington City Waimate District Hauraki District Hurunui District Lower Hutt City Rangitikei District Wairoa District South Waikato District Selwyn District Porirua City KAWERAU District

Percentage

Change in home ownership at 65+ years, 1986-2013 (%)

8

Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

Tauranga, WBOP among greatest increases in renting

102 91 69 65 55

• 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Ashburton District Kapiti Coast District South Taranaki District Waimate District Southland District Opotiki District Matamata-Piako District Tauranga City South Wairarapa District Carterton District Western Bay of Plenty District Stratford District Otorohanga District Far North District Horowhenua District Nelson City Hauraki District Gore District Invercargill City Christchurch City Waitomo District Waipa District Gisborne District Rotorua District Hamilton City Clutha District Waitaki District Thames-Coromandel District Tararua District Wairoa District Auckland Hastings District Masterton District TOTAL NZ Napier City Kaipara District Wanganui District Waimakariri District Whakatane District Upper Hutt City Buller District Timaru District Grey District Dunedin City Marlborough District Whangarei District Manawatu District New Plymouth District Chatham Islands Territory South Waikato District Westland District Tasman District Kawerau District Wellington City Kaikoura District Lower Hutt City Taupo District Palmerston North City Hurunui District Central Hawke's Bay District Queenstown-Lakes District Rangitikei District Waikato District Mackenzie District Ruapehu District Porirua City Selwyn District Central Otago District

Percentage

Change in renting, all ages, 1986-2013 (%)

9

Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

Tauranga, WBOP among greatest increases in renting at 65+ years

113 110 59 57 44

• 50

50 100 150 200

Selwyn District Queenstown-Lakes District Hurunui District Kapiti Coast District Kaikoura District Thames-Coromandel District Otorohanga District Hauraki District Southland District South Taranaki District Carterton District Opotiki District Taupo District Western Bay of Plenty District Kaipara District Tauranga City Far North District Grey District Clutha District Waimate District Westland District Waipa District Gore District Nelson City Tasman District Wairoa District Horowhenua District Buller District Waitomo District Ruapehu District Whangarei District South Wairarapa District Stratford District Rotorua District Invercargill City Whakatane District Marlborough District Waimakariri District Matamata-Piako District Auckland Tararua District New Plymouth District Central Otago District Waikato District Upper Hutt City Hastings District Gisborne District Waitaki District TOTAL NZ Hamilton City Ashburton District South Waikato District Wanganui District Timaru District Masterton District Manawatu District Christchurch City Rangitikei District Central Hawke's Bay District Napier City Dunedin City Palmerston North City Wellington City Lower Hutt City Kawerau District Porirua City

Percentage

Change in renting, 65+ years, 1986-2013 (%)

10

Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger)

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013

WHY GREATEST INCREASES IN RENTING BUT LOWEST PROPORTIONS?

Is it simply greater increases off lower bases? …partly

11

Proportions living in Family Trust homes relatively high in Tauranga, WBOP

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Queenstown-Lakes District Central Otago District WBOP Southland District Stratford District Central Hawke's Bay District Otorohanga District Gore District TAURANGA Waipa District Clutha District Waitomo District Selwyn District Hastings District Thames-Coromandel District Waikato District Taupo District Mackenzie District Tasman District Kaipara District Kapiti Coast District Manawatu District AUCKLAND MARLBOROUGH New Plymouth District Waitaki District South Wairarapa District Dunedin City South Taranaki District TOTAL NZ Ashburton District Tararua District Whangarei District Waimakariri District Napier City Wanganui District Rangitikei District Matamata-Piako District Lower Hutt City Nelson City Wellington City Hurunui District Timaru District Waimate District Invercargill City Christchurch City Whakatane District Ruapehu District Kaikoura District Upper Hutt City Horowhenua District Palmerston North City Far North District Porirua City Opotiki District Hamilton City Masterton District Carterton District Rotorua District Gisborne District Chatham Islands Territory Westland District Hauraki District Grey District South Waikato District Buller District Wairoa District Kawerau District

percentage

Tenure (%) 2013, all ages, ordered by % living in Family Trusts

Owned (r=-0.345**) Rented (r=-0.272*) Family Trust Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 12

Similar at 65+ years, but correlations much stronger; the higher the % in family trust, the lower the % home

• wnership (r=-0.847**) and renting (r=-0.581**)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Queenstown-Lakes District Central Otago District Central Hawke's Bay District WBOP Southland District Dunedin City Taupo District Otorohanga District Waitaki District Stratford District Ashburton District TAURANGA Thames-Coromandel District Clutha District Tasman District Gore District Manawatu District Hastings District MARLBOROUGH Waitomo District Mackenzie District Timaru District Waipa District Tararua District South Wairarapa District Kaipara District Wanganui District Kapiti Coast District TOTAL NZ New Plymouth District Lower Hutt City Nelson City Invercargill City Waimakariri District Selwyn District Whangarei District South Taranaki District Palmerston North City AUCKLAND Wellington City Matamata-Piako District Whakatane District Ruapehu District Napier City Christchurch City Porirua City Rangitikei District Kaikoura District Masterton District Far North District Westland District Horowhenua District Waikato District Hamilton City Opotiki District Hurunui District Upper Hutt City Grey District Waimate District Rotorua District Gisborne District Buller District Carterton District South Waikato District Hauraki District Chatham Islands Territory Wairoa District Kawerau District

percentage

Tenure (%) at 65+ years, 2013, ordered by % living in Family Trusts

Owned (r=-0.847**) Rented (r=-0.581**) Family Trust Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 13

The tenure revolution

• Home ownership is considerably lower than in 1986

– Nationally 75% >> 49%

• Home ownership + family trust together is considerably lower than home
• wnership per se in 1986

– Nationally 75% >> 64%

• Renting is considerably higher than in 1986

– Nationally 25% >> 36%

• The tenure revolution is accentuated by [older] people living in homes
• wned by a Family Trust

– The higher the % living in home owned by a Family Trust, the lower the home

• wnership (all ages, pearson’s r = -0.35**; At 65+ years r=-0.85**)

– The higher the % living in home owned by a Family Trust, the lower the % renting (all ages, pearson’s r = -0.27*; At 65+ years r = -0.58**)

• Results suggest tenure revolution = growing socio-economic [and ethnic]

divide, which is highly spatially differentiated

Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 14

RENTING BY BIRTH COHORT

15

1 – observe trend for each cohort 2 - Inter-cohort trends (how each cohort differs by year

• f birth) = vertical difference between cohorts when at

the same age 3 - Intra-cohort trends (eg., how each cohort differs by location) = horizontal difference between same-age cohorts

Renting – Total New Zealand

45.8 61.2 32.6 56.0 46.1 48.3 27.2 17.1 17.9 12.7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-74 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85+ Years

percentage

Renting by Birth Cohort*, Total NZ

2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81 1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-26 1947-51 1942-46 1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16

Cohort Born: Cohort Born 1982-86

Main family formation years Leave parental home

*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses

At 30-34 years, gap = 20 pp (+74%); at 65-69 years 4.5pp (+34%).

19.0

Renting – Tauranga City

48.4 66.6 24.7 59.3 49.6 46.0 29.4 14.6 15.9 8.3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-74 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85+ Years

percentage

Renting by Birth Cohort*, Tauranga City

2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81 1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46 1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16

Cohort Born: Cohort Born 1982-86

Main family formation years Leave parental home

*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses

At 30-34 years, gap = 28 pp (+126%); 65-69 years 7pp (+93%)

17.0

Renting – Western Bay of Plenty

48.2 58.9 35.9 60.8 52.1 39.8 52.0 27.1 18.2 14.5 13.6 7.6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

percentage

Renting by Birth Cohort*, WBOP

2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81 1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46 1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16

Cohort Born: Cohort Born 1982-86

Main family formation years Leave parental home

*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses

At 30-34 years, gap = 22 pp (+75%); 65-69 3pp (+27%)

15.0

Renting – Auckland

47.2 57.8 33.6 55.7 47.7 39.9 44.5 31.1 24.0 16.7 22.0 13.8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0-4 Years 5-9 Years 10-14 Years 15-19 Years 20-24 Years 25-29 Years 30-34 Years 35-39 Years 40-44 Years 45-49 Years 50-54 Years 55-59 Years 60-64 Years 65-69 Years 70-74 Years 75-79 Years 80-84 Years 85+ Years

percentage

Renting by Birth Cohort*, Auckland

2007-13 2002-06 1997-01 1992-96 1987-91 1982-86 1977-81 1972-76 1967-71 1962-66 1957-61 1952-56 1947-51 1942-46 1937-41 1932-36 1927-31 1922-26 1917-21 1912-16

Cohort Born: Cohort Born 1982-86

Main family formation years Leave parental home

*final observation for each cohort is +2 years, due to 7 year gap between 2006 and 2013 censuses

At 30-34 years, gap = 20 pp (+72%); 65-69 8pp (+55%)

22.0

The tenure revolution by cohort

• The fall in home ownership/increase in renting has accelerated since 2001,

for almost all cohorts

– TREND - cohorts at key parenting ages are still increasing their levels of home ownership, but at much lower levels than their predecessors when at the same age

• The increase in renting is particularly evident among parent and child

cohorts

– much greater vertical gaps for younger than older cohorts – Younger cohorts are in a vastly different situation to the past >> unlikely to ‘catch up’

• The trends began with the oldest cohorts, and accelerated after the

introduction of Family Trusts

– The most ‘advantaged’ cohorts (lowest rental levels) were born 1922-26 and 1927-31 – However some areas experiencing much greater shocks (increases in renting) than

• thers – eg Tauranga City - and may not be planning appropriate housing stock
• Results suggest growing cohort and spatial socio-economic divergence

– Divergence increases by cohort (younger cohorts are worse off than older cohorts) – By ethnicity, cohort gaps have closed slightly due to greater increase in renting by European and Asian cohorts

20

THANKYOU

demographics@nataliejackson.net

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Decline in home ownership, increase in renting common to all ethnic groups. Māori, Pacific Peoples highest RENTING rates, but Asian, European highest % increase

49.2 66.9 46.1 56.9 27.2 41.6 21.1 29.9 24.8 36.3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013

percentage

Percentage renting by major ethnic group

Pacific Peoples (+36%) Maori (+23%) Asian (+53%) European (+42%) Total NZ (+46%) Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 22

Highest Renting levels at older ages by TA

HIGHEST % RENTING in 2013 65+ YEARS 75+ YEARS % Renting in 2013 1 Wairoa 26% Ruapehu 29% 2 Opotiki 25% Westland 28% 3 Ruapehu 24% Buller 28% 4 Gisborne 24% *Grey 27% 5 Porirua 22% South Taranaki 26%

6

*Auckland 22% Opotiki 25%

7

South Taranaki 22% *Wanganui 25%

8

Westland 22% Wairoa 24%

9

*Hamilton 22% Porirua 24%

10

Buller 22% Gisborne 24%

23