Nuclear energy and public acceptance Prof. Dr. Attila Aszdi - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tianwan, China Source: A.Aszódi Nuclear energy and public acceptance Prof. Dr. Attila Aszódi Government Commissioner, Paks-2 project Prime Minister’s Office, Hungary Professor, Institute of Nuclear Techniques, Budapest University of Technology and Economics Teaching Physics Innovatively New Learning Environments and Methods in Physics Education 17-19 August 2015, Budapest

What are the biggest threats of the 21th century? • Climate change • Increased frequency of extreme weather conditions • UNsustainable development • Security of energy supply • Overpopulation • Terrorism • War • Migration Budapest, 2015.08.17. Source: index.hu • Misunderstanding and misinterpretation of natural and technical sciences 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 2

Normal habit: goods, products are stored … … in factories during transportation by wholesalers by retailers during shopping during transportation to retailers …right before consumption. during transportation to home at home Source: web, various 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 3

Electricity is a different product! Source: acust.kcpl.com Source: MAVIR • Only very limited storage possible! 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 4

The electricity is a special product Grid frequency [Hz] 50 49 51 Consumption Production Balance of consumption and production for every • Different levels of electricity system control second necessary to ensure grid stability and supply – Primary (immediate intervention), quality, 24/7/365/... – Secondary (frequency restoration in ~5 minutes), Electricity cannot be stored (in really large quantities). – Tertiary (10-15 minutes) reserves. Any deviation in frequency shall be restored ASAP. • Necessary reserves are determined in advance. 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 5

Daily electricity load curves • Demand depends on many variables (workdays/holiday, summer/winter, special weather conditions, etc.) • Load peaks occur usually in cold winter (energy demand for heating) and recently also in hot summer (air conditioning) Data provided by ENTSO-E • Different typical load curves 4500 4000 3500 6000 Hourly load (MW) 3000 5000 2500 2000 4000 Hourly load (MW) 1500 3000 1000 500 2000 hours 0 1000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Hungarian daily load curve on a winter holiday hours 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Hungarian daily load curve on a summer workday 6 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI

Electricity production in Germany: January 2014 Source: Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014, Fraunhofer ISE Conventional >100 MW Wind PV 7

Electricity production in Germany: January 2014 Source: Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014, Fraunhofer ISE Wind PV Gas Hydro Biomass Nuclear Lignite Hardcoal Pumped Stor. 8

Electricity production in Germany: June 2014 Source: Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014, Fraunhofer ISE Conventional >100 MW Wind PV 9

Electricity production in Germany: June 2014 Source: Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014, Fraunhofer ISE Hydro Biomass Nuclear Lignite Hardcoal Gas Pumped Stor. Wind PV A német villamosenergia-termelés 2014 júniusában Jól látható a jelentős naperőművi termelés (csekély széllel kombinálva) A gázerőművek teljesítménye szinte nulla! 10

How to meet the demands? • Example: Germany in the middle of August 2014 • Stable demand peak during weekdays (~60 000 MW), but changing weather conditions • Large differences in renewable production • Daily peak production of conventional power plants varies from 30 000 to 50 000 MW, export-import balance varies from -10 000 MW to +5000 MW Wind power generation stopped, but the sun is shining again -> about 20 000 MW less generation Large wind power generation with at peak load (importing electricity low solar power, exporting + larger role of conventinal plants) electricity almost all day Source: Fraunhofer Institute 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 11

Germany, 17 August 2014 Source: Frauenhofer Institut 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 12

Germany, 17 August 2014 German spot electricity prices on 17 August 2014 (euro/MWh) Source: EEX 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 13

Daily electricity load curves • Demand depends on many variables (workdays/holiday, summer/winter, special weather conditions, etc.) • Load peaks occur usually in cold winter (energy demand for heating) and recently also in hot summer (air conditioning) Data provided by ENTSO-E • Different typical load curves 4500 4000 3500 6000 Hourly load (MW) Sun (PV) 3000 5000 2500 2000 4000 Hourly load (MW) Sun (PV) 1500 3000 1000 500 2000 hours 0 1000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Hungarian daily load curve on a winter holiday hours 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Hungarian daily load curve on a summer workday 14 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI

The German situation • Germany uses the European transmission system as a regulating capacity – Exporting electricity in case of high renewable generation (mainly in summer), importing in case of low renewable generation – This method is working only if a few countries are following this way… • Negative electricity prices as a consequence of renewable overproduction + and renewable subsidies – Competitive disadvantage for conventional power plants (however, they are necessary for electricity system regulation!) • Is the German example that one we need to follow? Is it sustainable? 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 15

How to meet the demands? • The task is to balance the quickly changing renewable production, with regard to the continuously changing demand • Additional difficulty: weather-dependence of renewable Source: MAVIR production  hard to forecast, 100 MW overproduction big discrepancies during the thunderstorms between forecast and real production! Practically zero production for 2 days Example: last week of the Hungarian wind generation (with an installed capacity of 330 MW) 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 16

How to meet the demands? • What happens, if there are serious weak points in the electricity systems? • Recent example of Poland: heat wave with 38 °C maximal temperatures – Polish electricity generation relies on inefficient old coal fire plants – Bottlenecks in cross-border transmission lines • Restriction for electricity supply of industrial companies until the end of August – negative economical consequences! • Plus: no meatball at IKEA shops in Poland… ( because of electricity shortages) Source: Foreign Policy, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/11/record-breaking-european-heatwave-forces-ikea-to-take- meatballs-off-menu-in-poland/ 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 17

Role of base load power plants • Base load power plant: continuously operating, economically advantageous power plant with large installed capacity Source: WNA • Typically nuclear, coal-fired and combined-cycle natural gas plants Typical role of nuclear plants Nuclear Nuclear as baseload power plants 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 18

Nuclear energy • 438 nuclear power plant units in operation worldwide – 379 GWe installed capacity • 67 units under construction (24 in Source: IAEA China, 9 in Russia) – New construction in Europe: Finland, France, Slovakia • After Fukushima: – Germany: closure of 8 units, remaining units planned to be shutdown until 2022 (-> „ Energiewende ” ) – Japan: progressive shutdown of all 54 units, strict safety re-evaluation, safety improvements • Sendai Unit 1 restarted on 11 August 2015 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 19

Nuclear electricity generation (according to WEO „ new policy” scenario) EU: maintaining the nuclear Source: IEA: WEO 2014, p. 390. capacity 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 20

Economical competitiveness New Paks units Source: IEA: WEO 2014, p. 371. 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 21

Nuclear energy in the European Union • Nuclear energy has an important role in EU electricity generation! • Largest nuclear electricity producers: France (58 units in operation), UK (16 units), Sweden (10 units), Germany (8 units) • EU member states have the right to choose their way to produce electricity – different solutions for different resources • No common EU energy policy, but common European energy targets: – Increasing the supply safety – Limitation of climate change – Improving of economical competitiveness • Hungary decided to apply nuclear energy on a long term in order to meet the EU energy targets • Hungarian energy policy: issued in 2011 – „ Nuclear-green-coal ” scenario for climate protection, competitiveness and sustainability targets – In favor of nuclear energy (maintaining the present capacity of the Paks NPP) 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 22

The Hungarian electricity consumption • 2013: Total gross electricity consumption: 42 189,2 GWh – Domestic production: 30 311,5 GWh – Imported electricity: 11 877,7 GWh • Expected rate of growth: 1,3%/year (later 1%/year) • Until 2030 roughly 7300 MW new capacity has to be built – Within this, 3100-6500 MW can be large PPs (eg.: nuclear), 1600 MW small PPs on renewable sources Peak load Sources of gross electritiy consumption (MAVIR) 12/10/2015 Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 23