NTS Exit Capacity Product options for refinement EOWG 8 th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NTS Exit Capacity Product – options for refinement

EOWG 8th February 2006

(nks/060208_EOWG_DC_flex_transmission_usage

Background and presentation objective

… this presentation builds on previous presentations given to the Enduring Offtakes Workgroup on 18th January and 1st February and the Transmission Workstream on 2nd February … it provides some insight into DC flex/transmission utilisation

… the Enduring Offtake Working Group have asked for data about historic flexibility/throughput utilisation at other NTS exit points … whilst data is being gathered it might be worth thinking about some of the “theory” associated with transmission/flexibility feasible ranges

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (1)

For DCs the current bundled NTS Exit Capacity Product enables access to any flow rates beneath the implied MHQ envelope DCs effectively have access to a maximum of 2/9 SOQ “flexibility”

06:00 06:00 22:00

Offtake profile

MHQ

Flow rate

24*MHQ = SOQ

This maximum flex usage (2/9 of SOQ) occurs at 2/3 SOQ throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (2)

Maximum theoretical flexibility taken below SOQ can be easily established

Offtake profile Flow rate

24*MHQ = SOQ

MHQ

x/3 x/3 x/3 x/3 x/3

Average flow rate

06:00 22:00 06:00

Thus maximum flex usage is 2/3 of ( SOQ – actual daily offtake)

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (3)

So the theoretical transmission/flexibility envelope associated with Direct Connects can be established from a number of considerations:

Transmission throughput SOQ

Slope of line = -2/3

Flexibility utilisation

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (4)

At lower demand levels “flexibility utilisation” is also “capped”

Offtake profile

06:00 06:00 22:00

Max flow

Flow rate Average flow rate

2/3 max flow rate

Flexibility utilisation = 1/3 throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (5)

So working along the throughput axis the max flexibility utilisation can be visualised as follows:

Flexibility utilisation SOQ

Slope of line = 1/3

Transmission throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (6)

So the upper emvelope of the theoretical transmission/flexibility envelope associated with Direct Connects can be visualised as follows:

Flexibility utilisation 2/9 of SOQ 2/3 SOQ SOQ Transmission throughput

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (7)

.. and the full envelope could be established as:

Flexibility utilisation Transmission throughput SOQ 2/3 SOQ 2/9 of SOQ

Thinking about transmission/flexibility substitutability (8)

.. but unfettered access to flexibility might not be possible:

Flexibility utilisation Transmission throughput SOQ 2/3 SOQ 2/9 of SOQ

Slope = ¼.5

… some examples of DC transmission/flexibility utilisation

.. an industrial load, just a few days of material flex utilisation

Direct Connect 1 (June 2005 to November 2005) 0.00 0.00 Throughput Flow Flex Utilisation Capacity Flex 4.5:1 line

Direct Connect 2 (June 2005 to November 2005) 0.00 0.00 Throughput Flow Flex Utilisation Capacity Flex 4.5 : 1 line

Direct Connect 3 (June 2005 to November 2005) 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 Throughput Flow Flex Utilisation Capacity Flex 4.5 : 1 line

Direct Connect 4 (June 2005 to November 2005) 0.00 0.00 Throughput Flow Flex Utilisation Capacity Flex 4.5 : 1 line

Next steps

Does the Transmission Workstream see merit in further consideration of the pure TANIF model? the two product (expanding flexibility model) ? the single booking parameter derivative of the above? Alternatively are there other approaches that should be considered at this time?