NORTHERN LEADERS FORUM METRICS OF NORTHERN GROWTH 10 NOVEMBER 2015, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NORTHERN LEADERS FORUM METRICS OF NORTHERN GROWTH 10 NOVEMBER 2015, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 16, 2023 24 likes •279 views

NORTHERN LEADERS FORUM METRICS OF NORTHERN GROWTH 10 NOVEMBER 2015, THUNDER BAY Northern Growth Categories of regional and district level economic measures 1. Governance 2. Regional GDP 3. Population 4. Migration 5. Dependency

slide-1
SLIDE 1

NORTHERN LEADERS’ FORUM

METRICS OF NORTHERN GROWTH

10 NOVEMBER 2015, THUNDER BAY

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SLIDE 2

Northern Growth – Categories of regional and district level economic measures

1. Governance 2. Regional GDP 3. Population 4. Migration 5. Dependency 6. Labour 7. Education 8. Human Capital & Labour Productivity 9. Occupational Demand

  • 10. Trade

NOTE 1: Social and Environmental measures are pending NOTE 2: Community level measures will follow as available

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SLIDE 3

Any suggestions for other measures?

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SLIDE 4

Measures we hope to add

  • Annual or other more “current” data
  • Other “free” StatsCan data
  • Labour Force Survey
  • Job Vacancy & Wage Survey
  • Other “for a fee” StatsCan data
  • Must “add value” – so % change or indices
  • Health data
  • Other education data EQO or PSE
  • CMHC housing market information
  • Municipal FIR returns/FN information returns
  • Trade & commerce data/Tourism data
  • “Vital signs” and other social indicators
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SLIDE 5

GDP (Chained 2007 dollars x 1,000,000)

19,000 19,500 20,000 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,000 22,500 23,000 23,500 24,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Northeast Ontario

7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Northwest Ontario Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282-0125 and 379-0030.

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SLIDE 6

GDP by goods-producing industry

(chained 2007 dollars x1,000,000)

20 40 60 80 100 120 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Agriculture

0.5% 0.3%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas

18.3% 10.2%

100 200 300 400 500 600 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Utilities

3.3% 4.7%

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600

Construction

5.6% 6.0%

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400

Manufacturing

7.7% 4.1%

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282-0125 and 379-0030.

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SLIDE 7

GDP by services-producing industry

800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Trade (Wholesale and Retail)

12.5% 13.9%

300 350 400 450 500 550 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Transportation and Warehousing

3.9% 5.1%

800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing

10.2% 11.7%

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Professional, scientific & technical services

3.3% 3.4%

150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Business, building & other support services

2.9% 3.2%

450 500 550 600 650 700 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Educational services

6.5% 6.7%

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282-0125 and 379-0030.

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SLIDE 8

GDP by services-producing industry cont’d

700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Health care & social assistance

9.4% 11.2%

200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information, culture & recreation

3.3% 3.4%

150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Accommodation & food services

2.1% 2.3%

125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 350 370 390 410 430 450 470 490 510 530

Other services

1.9% 2.4%

600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,250 1,450 1,650 1,850 2,050 2,250 2,450 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Public administration

8.3% 11.3%

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, tables 282-0125 and 379-0030.

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SLIDE 9

Population Projections

Algoma, -10.15% Cochrane, -11.86% Manitoulin, 0.21% Nipissing, 3.25% Parry Sound, 0.57% Greater Sudbury, 0.08% Sudbury, -19.96% Timiskaming, - 7.28%

  • 25%
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5%

Northeast districts - Cumulative population growth

Kenora, 3.40% Rainy River, -14.93% Thunder Bay, -2.56%

  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

Northwest districts - Cumulative population growth Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013-2041” (Toronto, 2014).

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SLIDE 10

Age Cohorts

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Northwest Ontario - Distribution of population by age

2013 2041 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+

Northeast Ontario - Distribution of population by age

2013 2041

Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013-2041” (Toronto, 2014).

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SLIDE 11

Projected Labour Supply in the Northwest

8,108 10,996 9,248 12,258 2,157 2,878 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041

Projected Aboriginal Labour Force, 2013-41

Thunder Bay Kenora Rainy River

82 79.7 90.3 69.0 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Projected Labour Supply (2013=100)

N.W.O. Thunder Bay D. Kenora D. Rainy River D. 16.5 27.0 10.8 18.4 27.4 40.3 22.8 44.0

  • 10.0

20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Aboriginal Share of the Labour Force (%)

N.W.O. Thunder Bay D. Kenora D. Rainy River D.

* NE in progress

Source: Moazzami, Bakhtiar. 2015. “Northwestern Ontario Districts.” Unpublished manuscript. Thunder Bay: Northern Policy Institute.

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SLIDE 12

Youth net migration, by district (Northeast)

  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Nipissing

  • 200
  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Parry Sound

  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Manitoulin

  • 1000
  • 500

500 1000 1500 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Sudbury

  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Greater Sudbury

  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Timiskaming

  • 800
  • 700
  • 600
  • 500
  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Cochrane

  • 800
  • 600
  • 400
  • 200

200 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Algoma Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, table 051-0053.

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SLIDE 13

Youth net migration, by district (Northwest)

  • 900
  • 800
  • 700
  • 600
  • 500
  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

100 200

Thunder Bay

  • 180
  • 160
  • 140
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40

Rainy River

  • 700
  • 600
  • 500
  • 400
  • 300
  • 200
  • 100

Kenora Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, CANSIM database, table 051-0053.

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SLIDE 14

Current & Projected Dependency

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 Canada Ontario

  • Gr. Sudbury

Kenora Nipissing Thunder Bay Cochrane Timiskaming Algoma Rainy River Sudbury Manitoulin Parry Sound

2015 2030 2041 Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013-2041” (Toronto, 2014).

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SLIDE 15

Northeast – migration targets

Target 1 = to hold dependency ratio at current level (i.e. just shy of .5 for Thunder Bay as of 2015, see slide 14) Target 2 = allowing dependency ratio to rise to match the provincial rate by 2041 (i.e. just shy of .7, see slide 14)

  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Algoma

  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Cochrane

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Manitoulin

  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Nipissing

  • 200

200 400 600 800 1,000 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Parry Sound

  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Greater Sudbury

  • 200
  • 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Sudbury

  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 800 1,000 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Timiskaming Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013-2041” (Toronto, 2014).

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SLIDE 16

Northwest – migration targets

Target 1 = to hold dependency ratio at current level (i.e. just shy of .5 for Thunder Bay as of 2015, see slide 14) Target 2 = allowing dependency ratio to rise to match the provincial rate by 2041 (i.e. just shy of .7, see slide 14)

  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Thunder Bay

  • 400
  • 200

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Kenora

  • 100

100 200 300 400 500

Rainy River Source: Author’s calculations based on Ontario, Ministry of Finance, “Ontario Population Projections, 2013-2041” (Toronto, 2014).

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SLIDE 17

45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Employment Rate (%), Northern Ontario Census Divisions, 2-year averages, 2006/07 to 2013/14

Nipissing Manitoulin, Sudbury, Timiskaming Greater Sudbury Cochrane Algoma Thunder Bay Rainy River, Kenora Ontario Canada

Employment Rate by district

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0002 and custom tabulation. Note: District-level data is only available as 2-year

  • averages. As such, annual Labour Force Survey data for Ontario and Canada was manipulated into 2-year averages in order to

compare with district-level data.

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SLIDE 18

Unemployment Rate by district

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0002 and custom tabulation. Note: District-level data is only available as 2- year averages. As such, annual Labour Force Survey data for Ontario and Canada was manipulated into 2-year averages in order to compare with district-level data.

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Unemployment Rate (%), Northern Ontario Census Divisions, 2-year averages, 2006/07 to 2013/14

Nipissing Manitoulin, Sudbury, Timiskaming Greater Sudbury Cochrane Algoma Thunder Bay Rainy River, Kenora Ontario Canada

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SLIDE 19

Participation Rate by district

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 282-0002 and custom tabulation. Note: District-level data is only available as 2- year averages. As such, annual Labour Force Survey data for Ontario and Canada was manipulated into 2-year averages in order to compare with district-level data.

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Participation Rate (%), Northern Ontario Census Divisions, 2-year averages, 2006/07 to 2013/14

Nipissing Manitoulin, Sudbury, Timiskaming Greater Sudbury Cochrane Algoma Thunder Bay Rainy River, Kenora Ontario Canada

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SLIDE 20

Youth Employment Rate

30 35 40 45 50 55 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Employment Rate (15 to 19 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Employment Rate (20 to 24 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

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SLIDE 21

Youth Unemployment Rate

12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Unemployment Rate (15 to 19 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Unemployment Rate (20 to 24 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

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SLIDE 22

Youth Participation Rate

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Participation Rate (15 to 19 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (July)

Youth Participation Rate (20 to 24 years)

Northeast Northwest Ontario Canada

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

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SLIDE 23

Involuntary part-time employment

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Involuntary part-time employment rate (%)

Canada Ontario Northeast Northwest

Involuntary part-time employment in 2014:

  • Canada – 27% (935,700 people)
  • Ontario – 32% (431,900 people)
  • Northeast – 34% (17,900 people)
  • Northwest – 31% (7,100 people)

Involuntary part-time employment rate is the percent of part-time jobs that are being filled by individuals who would prefer to be working full- time

Also tracking this indicator by age and gender

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

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SLIDE 24

Temporary Employment

8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Temporary employment as a share of all employees

Canada Ontario Northeast Northwest

Temporary employment includes seasonal, term or contract, casual and other temporary jobs Temporary employment is only a small chunk of total employment. As of 2014:

  • Canada – 13.4% (2 million people)
  • Ontario – 12.6% (736k people)
  • Northeast – 13.1% (30k people)
  • Northwest – 14% (13k people)

Also tracking this indicator by age, gender and industry

Source: Author’s calculations based on Statistics Canada, custom tabulation.

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SLIDE 25

Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch. www.northernpolicy.ca